Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
842 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LINE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUED DOWNSTREAM
FOR REMAINDER OF FA. SOME ROTATION BEING DETECTED IN INDIVIDUAL
CELLS WITH REMAINDER OF LINE PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AS IT MOVES
THRU.

HAVE UPDATED ZONES FOR NEW WATCH...WITH VERY LITTLE CHGS
OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE HOW FAR WEST THE STACKED CLOSED LOW
RETROGRADES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME QPF IN
ERN NY SUN TO MON. FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY. MODELS USUALLY OVERDO
WRAPAROUND PRECIP ON BACK SIDE OF LOWS IN SPRING.

FOR THIS PERIOD IN NORTHERLY FLOW AT SFC AND ALOFT AS HIGH BUILDS
INTO OHIO VALLEY AND NEVER REALLY GETS HERE COMPLETELY. OMEGA
BLOCK SETS UP SO TROF REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND RIDGE IN
PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTS AN OMEGA BLOCK THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH TROFS OVER WESTERN US AND NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA WITH
RIDGE AXIS OVER MIDWEST INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH SFC HIGH PRES
IN VCNTY AREA WILL BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, INCLUDED CHC/SLIGHT CHC, AS CUTOFF LOW
RETROGRADES INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE AND POSSIBLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INITIATING CONVECTION.
SYSTEM IN OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE CONVECTION ACROSS AREA
AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
SCT/BKN CU AROUND 4-5K FT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-12 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN AND HILLTOPS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY BTW 00Z-03Z IN NYS AIRPORTS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
BOTH VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS. AT KAVP, THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LATER
AROUND 02Z-04Z. BEHIND FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. NO FOG OVERNIGHT DUE TO MIXING AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION. ON SATURDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SCATTERED CU NEAR 5K FT.

FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE MORNING FOG AT ELM. BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF RESTRICTIONS IN SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...PB
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...JML

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
833 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-PAZ038-039-100045-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
TIOGA-BROOME-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
833 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 371 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIMEL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

NYZ046-057-062-PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072-100045-
OTSEGO-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-
PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
833 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056-PAZ038-039-090015-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CAYUGA NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND
NY-MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-SCHUYLER NY-SENECA
NY-STEUBEN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-YATES NY-
644 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE LINE WILL MOVE EAST... REACHING THE
FINGER LAKES AREA FROM WATKINS GLEN TO CORNING BY 800 PM... SYRACUSE
TO ITHACA TO ELMIRA BY 830 PM... AND UTICA TO BINGHAMTON BY 930 PM.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING... AND COULD PRODUCE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS EVENING. WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED IF AND WHEN DAMAGING WINDS AND OR LARGE HAIL BECOMES
IMMINENT.

MSE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
819 PM EDT FRI JUN 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MORAVIA                 42.71N 76.42W
06/08/2007                   CAYUGA             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN IN MORAVIA.

&&

MSE