Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
323 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT HUMID WEATHER WILL BE WITH US FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH LATE SATURDAY WILL BE
RAIN-FREE.

FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
ANTICIPATED.

ON SUNDAY...IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS A DRIER AIR MASS
COMES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CONVECTION HAS HAD A TOUGH TIME DEVELOPING SO FAR...AS THE AIR
REMAINS FAIRLY CAPPED (CIN VALUES OF MORE THAN 100 J/KG ON THIS
AFTERNOONS SOUNDINGS AT BUFFALO AND ALBANY). OTHER THAN THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORT-WAVE THIS EVENING...AND FIXED FORCING FROM
TERRAIN AND ANY LAKE BOUNDARIES...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LATER TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OVER OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES...BUT FOR THE MOST PART RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

WE SHOULD SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF STRATUS FORMATION OVERNIGHT THAN
WEVE HAD THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A HOT HUMID DAY...WITH A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
FRONT WILL NOT GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE REGION. IN
FACT...NORTHEAST PA SHOULD STAY RAIN-FREE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.
WHATEVER STORMS DO FORM HAVE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS THE WIND
FIELDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE FRONT ITSELF LUMBERS ACROSS NY AND PA.
PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES TOMORROW EVENING...SO SOME
HEAVY RAINERS ARE EXPECTED. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FLOW
TO KEEP THE STORMS PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE.

ON SUNDAY...DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AS
THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. WE KEPT IN
A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST PA AND THE CATSKILLS. HIGHS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
LOWER ON SUNDAY THAN THEYLL BE SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT STALLS OUT SOUTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH FRONT AND HAVE
FOLLOWED HPC/S SLOWER PROGRESSION...MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF. FRONT
MVS THRU ON THURSDAY WITH COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND. BEST CHC FOR
STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THICKNESSES DROP
TO 552 WITH H8 TEMPS BTWN +4C TO +6C ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR MOST OF THE PD WITH SCTD 4KFT CLDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDER NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD SO HAVE INDICATED
ONLY CB GROUP IN FCST. BKN CIGS FROM 5-6KFT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. CUD SEE SOME SCTD LOW CLDS FROM 08Z-12Z
SATURDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
FROM THE S-SW FROM 5-10KTS MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND DRG THE DAY
TOMORROW.

MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. FOLLOWING
FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU WEDNESDAY.
CUD SEE SOME MVFR VLY FOG AT KELM BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS
AHD OF NEXT FRONT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...PVB
AVIATION...PVB