Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
358 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE, CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY ALBEIT COOL WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE YET ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN LACKLUSTER SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
AND HAS BEEN MOSTLY LOCATED ALONG A LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE.
DEWPOINTS OVER THE CWA HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 65. TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMER THAN FORECAST...REACHING 90F AT KPEO. THIS HAS YIELDED
MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000J/KG. WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WELL
TO THE NORTH...AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE LACK OF A REAL
TRIGGER THIS AFTERNOON HAS SPELLED FOR THE LACK OF ACTIVITY. ALSO
AT PLAY LOOKS TO BE SOME WARM AIR IN THE 500-600MB LAYER...ALSO
MENTIONED EARLIER. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SOLIDIFIED SOME DURING
THE DAY WITH THE WIND SHIFT LINING UP MORE WITH THE SFC AIRMASS
CHANGE. NOTICE DEWPOINTS AROUND FREEZING IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON

THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
AND SHOULD SPARK A FEW STORMS WITH ITS PASSAGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO
BACK OFF POPS FOR THE PERIOD...WITH SCT COVERAGE NORTH OF A KITH-
KOIC LINE AND ISO TO THE SOUTH. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE A
VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD TO WORK WITH...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH I FEEL
WERE RUNNING OUT OF TIME.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT LEAVES THE CWA TO THE
SOUTH...AS IT BEGINS TO LINE PARALLEL TO THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
CLEARING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH NORTHERN AREAS
BECOMING MCLEAR BY MORNING. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S IN
THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE BEAUTIFUL WITH A PRETTY DRY AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO PLACE. UNFORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEATHER
WILL GO DOWNHILL BY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
ROTATE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE CWA. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER GREATLY
WITH HOW STRONG THIS S/WV WILL BE WITH THE GFS FAR STRONGER. THE
GFS APPEARS TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME THIS WAVE IN ITS INITIALIZATION AT 12UTC...SO HAVE FOLLOWED
ITS MORE HEAVY-HANDED APPROACH. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...THE IMPRESSIVE PVA/QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 125KT 250MB JET. EVEN WITH AN INITIALLY
DRY AIRMASS...FEEL THAT THE INCREDIBLE DYNAMICS SHOULD YIELD SOME
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDER OVER NORTHERN AREAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...T850 FALLS BELOW 4C WITH WELL-ALIGNED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO. FEEL THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...EVEN AFTER THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS.
SO...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE A BIT CHILLY...FALLING TO AROUND 50.

ON SATURDAY...SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE TO SLOWLY ERODE THE CLOUD COVER
SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
CLEARING TREND...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL GUARANTEE A COOL DAY AT
THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS IN THE 65-70F RANGE...ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD AND SHOULD BRING
AN EVEN COOLER NIGHT. LOWS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE 45-50
RANGE. TOWARDS MORNING...SOME CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST OUT OF ONTARIO
COMBINES WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTHWEST TO ALLOW A PRECIP
SHIELD TO BLOSSOM ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND APPROACH US
FROM THE WEST. THE ORIGINAL IMPETUS FOR THIS PRECIP AREA APPEARS
TO BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST...SO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FEATURE IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT.

SUNDAY...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE GONE NO HIGHER THAN LOW CHC POPS. TEMPS WILL
AGAIN BE CHILLY AS WE REMAIN NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
T850 STILL NEARLY 5C. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER
60S...POSSIBLY LOWER IF WE DO GET INTO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. FASTER PATTERN AS FLOW GOES CLOSER TO ZONAL
FROM THE PLAINS RIDGE OF THE PAST WEEK. HPC AND MODELS NOW WETTER
THAN YESTERDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS
INTO THURSDAY. EACH DAY A LITTLE WARMER WITH MORE MOISTURE. A
SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS PA TO THE COAST TUESDAY.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL BE IN PA WITH LEAST IN
ONEIDA COUNTY. LATE IN THE WEEK WE MIGHT BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT IN SE CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE A TS OR SHOWER BRIEFLY
REDUCING THE VSBY LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING. COLD FRONT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS. ONLY A
FEW NOW JUST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO COULD AFFECT
SYR AND RME IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEHIND FRONT TOWARDS MIDNIGHT DRY AIR RETURNS SO ONLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY A STRONG TROF APPROACHES TOWARD 00Z. AHEAD OF
THIS WILL BE CAA AND LAKE ENHANCED CU AT AROUND 5K FT. WILL BECOME
BKN IN THE AFTN CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING.

W WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS INTO EVENING SHIFTING TO NW AND
DIMINISHING AFTER THE COLD FRONT. FOR FRIDAY NW WINDS AROUND 10
KTS. DURING THE AFTN MAY INCREASE FURTHER TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR BUILDS THROUGH CWA SAT NGT. MVFR OR IFR
VALLEY FOG AT ELM SUN MORNING.

A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO MVFR POSSIBLE
AT AVP AND MAYBE BGM...ITH...AND ELM IN -SHRA AND LOW CIGS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMA
NEAR TERM...JMA
SHORT TERM...JMA
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
513 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

NYZ018-036-162145-
MADISON NY-ONONDAGA NY-
513 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  CAZENOVIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PETERBORO AND MORRISVILLE AT 520 PM EDT...
  MUNNSVILLE AND STOCKBRIDGE AT 525 PM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY

PB

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