Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
143 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF CANADA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL COMBINE TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 90S ON TODAY AND
TUESDAY BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO 95 TO 100...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS. THE HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL HELP PRODUCE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATE - MCV WHICH TRACKED EWD ACRS LOWER ONTARIO INTO WRN/CNTRL
NYS THIS AFTN PRODUCED TSRA OVER THE NRN ZONES AND CNTRL SRN TIER.
THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVG OFF TO THE SE. NXT S/WV UPSTREAM WITH
CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER GEORGIAN BAY. SHORT RNG MDLS SHOW
DVLPMNT OF IMPRSV 40-45 KT 925 MB JET OVER LOWER ONTARIO INTO WRN
NYS BY 06Z. POTNL FOR MCS LATER TNGT...SPCLY CNTRL AND NRN
ZONES...AND CRNT FCST INDICATES THIS SO NO CHGS ANTICPTATED.

PREV - NEXT STRONGER VORT MAX IS LOCATED OVER LK HURON AND
PRODUCED SVR WX OVER UP OF MI THIS MORNING AS SVR STORMS
DEVELOPED. 12Z MODELS INDICATE THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO WRN NY
ARND 01Z TONIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS
UPSTATE NY DRNG THE OVERNIGHT HRS. SFC WARM FRONT IS CRNTLY
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF WATERTOWN AND CUD SLIP SLIGHTLY SOUTH
STRADDLING NRN ZONES THIS EVENING. WAVE RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
WUD GIVE BEST CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN SUSQUEHANNA REGION
NORTHWARD BTWN 03Z-12Z TONIGHT. H8 JET INCREASES AND THETA-E
GRADIENT SETS UP TONIGHT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY IN PLACE. YET
ANOTHER SHOT FOR SVR WX WILL EXIST WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES THRU
NRN HALF OF CWA. BEST COURSE OF ACTION WILL BE TO KEEP POPS ENTIRE
OVERNIGHT PD WITH LIKELY FAR NORTH TAPERING TO 30 ACROSS THE SRN
TIER. AREAS FROM ESSENTIALLY ROUTE 17 SOUTH WILL SEE VRY LITTLE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS FOR MONDAY...CDFNT IS SLOWING AND WILL JUST BARELY MAKE IT INTO
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ONLY GONE WITH CHC POPS OVER FINGER
LKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY MONDAY AS MOST FORCING AND FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION REMAINS TO OUR NORTH.  WITH DWPTS INCRSNG INTO THE M-U
60S CAPES WILL BE HIGH. THUS POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX AFTER APPROX 18Z
OVER UPSTATE NY WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

HEAT WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW WITH HIGHS APCHG THE L-M 90S
AREAWIDE. COUPLE THIS WITH THE HUMID AIRMASS AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
HIT HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES FOR A VERY BRIEF PD TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NOT ENUF TO WARRANT HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS VALUES
MAX OUT FOR ABOUT ONE HOUR BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE 90S. MAY
SEE SOME PLACES APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TOMORROW:

BINGHAMTON - 95(1988)
SYRACUSE - 97 (1988)
WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON - 96 (1988)

SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONTINUES WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE LAKES. NOT A LOT OF FOCUS FOR
STORMS BUT DO NOT BELIEVE MUCH LIFT WILL BE NEEDED SO ITS HARD TO
RULE OUT CONVECTION ANY PERIOD. HEAT INDICIES ON MON ARE NEAR THE
ADVISORY LEVEL...WOULD NEED TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD DEW POINTS IN
THE 70 RANGE TO PUSH IT OVER THE TOP. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A HAIR
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT DOWN
INTO NY. WED SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
AND TSTMS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THU NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT
CLOUDS AND A RW- ...20 POP...ON FRI WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALFT AND UPSLOPE
INTO THE THE SOUTHERN TIER. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND. WEAK FRONT MOVES DOWN LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY GIVING US
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS NEXT 24H IS THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WILL AFFECT MUCH OF UPSTATE NY TERMINALS THROUGH 11Z.
THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS IN HEAVY RAIN. ALSO
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED 40 KT GUST. AVP SHOULD STAY S OF TS AND
REMAIN VFR. WITH THE RAIN EARLIER AT ELM...VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED.
VSBY AND CIG BOUNCING BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR/VFR.

AFTER THE BATCH OF TS OVER THE BIG LAKE MOVES THROUGH SHOULD BE
QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTN. MORE TS ARE
LIKELY LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING BUT TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY TOO
MUCH TO PUT IN TAFS ATTM. AGAIN BEST CHCS WILL BE RME AND SYR. ANY
TS COULD HAVE BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF THE SW LATE MORNING INTO AFTN. WINDS
DIE BACK TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND SUNSET.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PRODUCING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. EARLY MORNING
FOG/HAZE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KELM. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
VFR. BEST CHC OF WIDESPREAD THUNDER WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMW
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...DJP/TAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
954 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-091400-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-SCHUYLER-
TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-
BROOME-DELAWARE-
954 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SEVERE STORMS...WITH A LESSER CHANCE ALONG THE
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA BORDER. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS COULD DOT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN HIGHLY
URBANIZED...NORMALLY WARMER AREAS...HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
APPROACH 100 DEGREES.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NYZ022-024-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-091400-
STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-
LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
954 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...STORMS CLOSEST TO THE
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BORDER MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN HIGHLY
URBANIZED...NORMALLY WARMER AREAS...HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S...AND POSSIBLY
EVEN APPROACH 100 DEGREES.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
125 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

NYZ045-046-090630-
CHENANGO NY-OTSEGO NY-
125 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CHENANGO AND
OTSEGO COUNTIES...

* AT 121 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...
  STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM UNADILLA FORKS TO LEONARDSVILLE
  TO EARLVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LEONARDSVILLE AND EARLVILLE AT 130 AM EDT...
  SOUTH EDMESTON AT 140 AM EDT...
  EXETER CENTER AND LAMBS CORNERS AT 145 AM EDT...
  COLUMBUS AND BURLINGTON AT 150 AM EDT...
  OAKSVILLE AT 155 AM EDT...
  NEW BERLIN AT 200 AM EDT...
  TODDSVILLE AND PITTSFIELD AT 205 AM EDT...
  HYDE PARK AND INDEX AT 210 AM EDT...

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
238 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

NYZ018-090800-
ONONDAGA NY-
238 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

* AT 236 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A   LINE OF STRONG STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF
THESE THESE STORMS WAS LOCATED 24 MILES WEST OF   LYSANDER...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LYSANDER AND PLAINVILLE AT 315 AM EDT...
  BALDWINSVILLE AT 325 AM EDT...
  SENECA KNOLLS AND VILLAGE GREEN AT 330 AM EDT...
  BAYBERRY AND WOODARD AT 335 AM EDT...
  MATTYDALE AND NORTH SYRACUSE AT 340 AM EDT...
  LYNCOURT AND SYRACUSE AT 345 AM EDT...
  EAST SYRACUSE AND DE WITT AT 350 AM EDT...
  MINOA AND KIRKVILLE AT 355 AM EDT...

EXPECT FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS,
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PADAVONA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
311 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

NYZ009-037-090830-
ONEIDA NY-
311 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 310 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES WEST OF
  CAMDEN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMDEN AND FLORENCE AT 330 AM EDT...
  VIENNA AT 335 AM EDT...
  TABERG AND LEE AT 340 AM EDT...
  POINT ROCK AND VERONA MILLS AT 345 AM EDT...
  STOKES CORNER AND DELTA LAKE AT 350 AM EDT...
  WESTERNVILLE AND FRENCHVILLE AT 355 AM EDT...
  HOLLAND PATENT AND STEUBEN AT 400 AM EDT...
  BARNVELD AND TRENTON FALLS AT 405 AM EDT...

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

PADAVONA