Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TODAY,
ALLOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AFTER ANOTHER
HOT AND HUMID DAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH...
MORE WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE HERE.

SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IMPRESSIVE CAPE FIELDS...WITH 2000-2500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE. THIS
BRINGS WITH IT THE POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING RISK AS MBE VECTORS ARE
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA TODAY SUGGESTING SOME STORM BACK
BUILDING. KBUF AND KALB 12Z SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST SOME DRY AIR
ALOFT...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. WITH SUCH A WARM AIRMASS...FEEL HAIL
WILL BE A LESSER THREAT...AND AT THIS POINT THE SHEAR FIELDS DO
NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.

12Z KBUF SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SOMEWHAT OF A CAP...SO STORMS MAY
HAVE SOME TROUBLE FORMING IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY
AS DAYTIME HEATING PROGRESSES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM OVERCOMING
THE CAP...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK WIND FIELDS...DO NOT
BELIEVE AN ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY
AS DAYTIME HEATING ADDS TO THE INSTABILITY. THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE A SEVERE THREAT, BUT FEEL FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE
BIGGEST CONCERN. LATEST PROGS SHOW AVP HOLDING ONTO A 1.75-1.90
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS BRINGS A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH
OVER OUR AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW 6Z GFS IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF IN A WEAKER TROUGH THAN THE 0Z
GFS...WELL STILL BE IN LINE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  PRIMARY DIFFERENCE FROM YESTERDAY IS THAT A DECENT
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE COLD
CORE ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT LONG
RANGE MODELS DEPICTED YESTERDAY.  THE GFS DEVELOPS AROUND 500 J/KG
OF CAPE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND WITH GOOD DYNAMICS ALOFT /PVA AND
GOOD JET PLACEMENT/ IT APPEARS THAT WELL SEE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER ALBEIT COOL CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT MUCH ABOVE 70F.  THE SURFACE HIGH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY...THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY FROM THE
US EAST COAST ALLOWING RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY TO BUILD EAST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING MODERATING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA WITH ALL SITES POSSIBLY AT
RISK THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. ANY INDIVIDUAL STORM COULD BRING MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS AND STRONG WINDS.

AFTER ABOUT 00Z...EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK WITH A VFR DECK
BEFORE MORE SHRA MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 6Z. HAZE IS
EXPECTED TO THICKEN AGAIN TO MVFR AT AVP AFTER ABOUT 00Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

TOWARDS DAWN AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY...TSRA WILL
AGAIN DEVELOP WITH SCATTERED MVFR RESTRICTIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE.

STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING UP NORTH BY ABOUT 15Z...BUT
NOT LIKELY TO AVP UNTIL ABOUT 00Z.

ISOLATED RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SYR/RME...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE MORNING FOG AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...JMA
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...JMA
AVIATION...JMA

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