Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
156 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COOL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...

TDS HAVE RISEN INTO THE M/U 50S ACRS THE FINGER LAKES ANE CNTRL
SRN TIER AHEAD OF THE FNT, AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE M/U70S.
GIVEN THIS, STORMS MAY HAVE A BETER CHC TO DVLP IN THIS HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER LOW LVL CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK.
NOT MUCH CHG IN THE SCENARIO DISCUSSED EARLIER WITH POTNL FOR
SOME ISOLD SVR ACTIVITY THIS AFTN, AND PSBLY ISSUANCE OF A WATCH
FROM SPC. ACTIVITY SHUD MOV OFF TO THE EAST/DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...

CONTINUITY PREVAILS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY WORKING EAST INTO
THE RGN FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND. XPCT MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLDS/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. CANT
RULE OUT THE ISOLD -SHRA TMRW AFTN, SPCLY FAR NE ZONES, BUT NOT
INCLINED TO MENTION IN THE ZONES ATTM. COOL TEMPS THRU THE PD,
WITH MOST AREAS WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S FRI NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SOME DISCREPANCY BTWN ECMWF/GFS AS TOO HOW HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED THE FLOW WILL BE. 12Z GFS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AS 06Z WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO FA ON TUESDAY...FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUN. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE TUESDAY DRY WITH CHC POPS IN FOR WED/WED
NIGHT PER HPC GUIDANCE. H5 FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL EARLY-MID WEEK
BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON MAXES HOVERING
ARND 90.

TRICKY PART OF EXTENDED IS TIMING SUBTLE S/WAVES ROTATING THRU IN
EARLY HALF OF THE PD. SOME MCS ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AS RIDGE BUILDS.
FA CUD BE IN THE RING OF FIRE BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS AT THIS POINT. SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH DRY WX THRU MOST OF
THE PD AND WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH SCT CUMULUS GIVING WAY TO CLRNG SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS AGAIN DRNG MORNING. NW FLOW
WILL DIMINISH AFTER 01Z TO 5-10KTS THEN INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 16Z
WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM
19-23Z BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENUF FOR TEMPO GROUP.

VFR LIKELY DURING THE OUTLOOK PD. RESTRICTIONS THRU TUESDAY WUD
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO EARLY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...PVB
AVIATION...PVB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-221430-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TODAY...YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, OR YOUR
FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE, FOR LATER UPDATES. YOU MAY ALSO VISIT
OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
423 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             SYRACUSE                43.04N 76.14W
06/21/2007  E1.75 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   PUBLIC

&&

JMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
501 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             BAINBRIDGE              42.30N 75.48W
06/21/2007  E1.00 INCH       CHENANGO           NY   PUBLIC

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAYETTE                 42.82N 76.80W
06/21/2007                   SENECA             NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN

0335 PM     HAIL             ROMULUS                 42.75N 76.83W
06/21/2007  E0.88 INCH       SENECA             NY   PUBLIC

0335 PM     HAIL             WEEDSPORT               43.05N 76.56W
06/21/2007  E0.75 INCH       CAYUGA             NY   PUBLIC

0340 PM     HAIL             SENECA FALLS            42.91N 76.80W
06/21/2007  E1.00 INCH       SENECA             NY   PUBLIC

0348 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEDYARD                 42.70N 76.62W
06/21/2007                   CAYUGA             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

0350 PM     HAIL             BINGHAMTON              42.10N 75.91W
06/21/2007  E0.88 INCH       BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

0355 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     VENICE CENTER           42.73N 76.55W
06/21/2007                   CAYUGA             NY   PUBLIC

0410 PM     HAIL             SYRACUSE                43.04N 76.14W
06/21/2007  E1.75 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   PUBLIC

0411 PM     HAIL             SIDNEY CENTER           42.28N 75.25W
06/21/2007  E0.75 INCH       DELAWARE           NY   PUBLIC

0413 PM     HAIL             FREEVILLE               42.51N 76.35W
06/21/2007  E1.75 INCH       TOMPKINS           NY   PUBLIC

0414 PM     HAIL             BINGHAMTON              42.10N 75.91W
06/21/2007  E0.88 INCH       BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

0414 PM     HAIL             BERKSHIRE               42.30N 76.18W
06/21/2007  E1.00 INCH       TIOGA              NY   PUBLIC

0414 PM     HAIL             SYRACUSE                43.04N 76.14W
06/21/2007  E1.00 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   PUBLIC

0415 PM     HAIL             JAMESVILLE              42.98N 76.07W
06/21/2007  E0.75 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   PUBLIC

0422 PM     HAIL             GILBERTSVILLE           42.47N 75.32W
06/21/2007  E1.00 INCH       OTSEGO             NY   PUBLIC

0422 PM     HAIL             SYRACUSE                43.04N 76.14W
06/21/2007  E1.75 INCH       ONONDAGA           NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ONONDAGA HILL AREA. QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

RAM

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