Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS La Crosse, WI

Allamakee County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Howard County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Dodge County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Houston County, MN, Mower County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Winona County, MN, Adams County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Grant County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Richland County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
355 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY BE A CONCERN THIS MORNING...WITH SNOW
AMOUNTS GETTING THE ATTENTION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MB/SASK...
WITH LOW PRESSURE AND THE STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING FROM THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVERS
ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN MN...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. STILL PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND SNOW FALLING FROM MO/KS UP THROUGH IA/WI.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO PARADE NORTHEAST ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN CONTINUED PERIODS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS OF IA/IL/SOUTHERN WI...WITH SNOW
MIXED IN...OR ALL SNOW A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS.
CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE SET TO EXPIRE AT 4 AM...BUT STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS FROM
LAW ENFORCEMENT.  SO WILL EXTEND UNTIL 7 AM.

THE LARGEST PIECE OF ENERGY...THE MAIN CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE
WY/CO AREA...WILL FINALLY SHEAR AND EJECT EAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AS THIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...A NICE BAND OF LAYER Q-G SHOULD
ASSIST IN LIFT...WITH BROAD THERMODYNAMIC UPGLIDE AS THE WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTH OVER THE COLD DOME. MODELS HAVE NOW ALL HAD
THE QPF PENDULUM SWING TOWARD HIGHER AMOUNTS...AFTER A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE 12Z/18Z RUNS.  THIS LOOKING LIKE THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO...SO HAVE GONE THAT ROUTE.  WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE
RAISED POPS A GOOD DEAL...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...HAVE RAISED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE WATCH WILL BE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THINKING THE TOP END OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND THE
6 INCH MARK.

STORM LOOKS TO EXIT EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING
ONLY SOME LINGERING FLURRIES AT BEST. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE LONGER TERM STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT MUDDLED WITH VARYING
SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.  WITH ALL THE ACTIVE
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM TO LOOK AT...AND WITH LIMITED NEW DATA TO
REVIEW...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ054-055-061.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
     IAZ029-030.

&&

MW

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