Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 270022
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
721 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

MNC039-270045-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070727T0045Z/
DODGE MN-
721 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR DODGE COUNTY...

AT 719 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR COUNTY ROADS 6 AND 15...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANTORVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES AS IT MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN 
GOODHUE COUNTY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE THE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

LAT...LON 4420 9305 4385 9306 4384 9268 4419 9268

$$

BINAU

000 
WWUS53 KARX 270043
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
742 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

MNC039-270052-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070727T0045Z/
DODGE MN-
742 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DODGE COUNTY EXPIRES AT 745 PM
CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THIS WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

WINDS WERE MEASURED TO 40 AND 45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY...BUT 
NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE WERE RECEIVED.

LAT...LON 4420 9305 4385 9306 4384 9268 4419 9268

$$

BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
328 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT TONIGHT.

AT 3 PM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF DULUTH
MINNESOTA TO MADISON SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING WILLMAR MINNESOTA NORTHEAST TO THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA.A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE BECOMING SEVERE.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS FIRING FROM JUST EAST OF
WORTHINGTON TO THE TWIN CITIES AND ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING STRONG CAPPING BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS IS CURRENTLY
PREVENTING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW
THEY HANDLE THE PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM/WRF WERE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS THIS AREA BETWEEN
21Z AND 00Z. MEANWHILE THE GFS DID NOT SHOW THE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z. CONSIDERING THE CAP
THAT WAS SHOWING UP IN THE AMDAR SOUNDINGS...I CURRENTLY PREFER
THE GFS. EVEN WITH THIS BEING STATED THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA TONIGHT. BOTH THE 18Z GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATES 90
AND 94.

WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES GRADUALLY DECREASING TONIGHT...THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS EVENING. BOTH
THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 40 KNOTS...SO I
AM NOT EXPECTING TOO MANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DID HAPPEN TO BECOME SEVERE THIS
EVENING...THEY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO BE OVERDONE TONIGHT. WITH THIS
SAID...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE
1.50 TO 2.00 INCH RANGE. THIS IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWN POURS. THIS MAY CAUSE
SOME BRIEF PROBLEMS FOR URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 500 MB RIDGE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
WARMEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS A RESULT...IT LOOK LIKE THE UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA. THE GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THE ECMWF. SINCE THE ECMWF USUALLY
VERIFIES BETTER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...I WENT JUST A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
LOOKS TO BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...TONIGHT

FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. DUE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES LIFR IS PROBABLE WHEN ACTIVITY AFFECTS THE
TAF SITES. THE FRONT WILL KEEP MOVING THUS FORECAST CURRENTLY IS
ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR TSRA ACTIVITY HOWEVER EXPECT ABOUT
1 HOUR OF ACTUAL TSRA AT EACH TAF SITE THIS EVENING. THEN...A
SLOW IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT AS FRONT CLEARS SOUTHEAST. WEATHER WILL
BECOME VFR. WILL TRY TO NARROW WINDOW DOWN OF PROBABLE TSRA
ACTIVITY WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT AND LONG TERM - BOYNE
AVIATION - BAUMGARDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
527 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-271100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
527 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES WILL BE DECREASING SLOWLY THROUGH THE EVENING....OUT OF
THE 90S.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND ORGANIZING AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS
IS ALL ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM DULUTH
MINNESOTA TO SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT A FEW STORMS NEAR THE FRONT MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.

THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA REMAINS NORTHWEST OF A WISCONSIN
RAPIDS...TO LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...TO CHARLES CITY IOWA LINE. THE
MAIN SEVERE THREATS WOULD BE MAINLY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS...
WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES.

WITH A DEEP...MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY BE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...WITH RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
WITH INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WITH THE
FRONT AND STORMS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST...THE OVERALL
FLOODING THREAT IS NOT HIGH. HOWEVER THE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING URBAN AND SMALL-STREAM FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THESE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL MOST PROBABLE NORTHWEST OF A WISCONSIN
RAPIDS...TO LA CROSSE WISCONSIN...TO CHARLES CITY IOWA LINE THROUGH
ABOUT 10 PM TONIGHT. THOSE CLOSER TO THAT LINE CAN EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
MOVE IN AFTER 8 PM...WHILE FURTHER NORTHWEST OF IT...STORMS WILL
MOVE IN EARLIER. MONITORING RADAR DEVELOPMENT OVER MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WOULD BE MOST ADVANTAGEOUS FOR GROUPS TO BETTER
TIME THEIR LOCAL THREAT. REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINS...RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND
RAINFALL TOTALS WOULD ALSO BE APPRECIATED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

RRS/BAUMGARDT