Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS La Crosse, WI

000 
WWUS53 KARX 140328
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1026 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

MNC157-WIC011-053-121-140415-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-070814T0415Z/
WABASHA MN-BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-JACKSON WI-
1026 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...TREMPEALEAU...BUFFALO AND NORTHEASTERN
WABASHA COUNTIES...

AT 1026 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FROM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
CHIPPEWA FALLS TO 7 MILES NORTH OF DURAND TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF 
ELLSWORTH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

RESIDENTS OF NORTHERN BUFFALO AND NORTHERN TREMPEALEAU 
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE MONDOVI AREA...SHOULD BRACE FOR WIDESPREAD 
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM...WITH THIS THREAT EXTENDING 
SOUTH AND EAST INTO TREMPEALEAU COUNTY TOWARD THE CHIMNEY ROCK AREA.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  COUNTY ROADS 33 AND 4 AND THE BIG SWAMP AREA AROUND 1040 PM...
  MONDOVI AND MONDOVI AIRFIELD AROUND 1045 PM...
  WABASHA AND COUNTY ROADS 18 AND 4 AROUND 1050 PM...
  ALMA AND KELLOGG AROUND 1055 PM...
  OSSEO AND WEST NEWTON AROUND 1100 PM...

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4439 9084 4420 9114 4410 9129 4413 9170
      4421 9183 4420 9212 4444 9236 4445 9236
      4441 9209 4459 9199 4459 9093 4451 9090
      4451 9080 4442 9080

$$

BINAU

000 
WWUS53 KARX 140348
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1044 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

MNC157-WIC011-053-121-140415-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-070814T0415Z/
WABASHA MN-BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-JACKSON WI-
1044 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...TREMPEALEAU...BUFFALO AND NORTHEASTERN
WABASHA COUNTIES...

AT 1044 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MONDOVI TO 7 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF MONDOVI TO 6 MILES EAST OF LAKE CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST 
AT 50 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WABASHA AND STRUM AROUND 1050 PM...
  ALMA AND KELLOGG AROUND 1055 PM...
  INDEPENDENCE AND STATE ROAD 42 AND COUNTY 14 AROUND 1100 PM...
  WHITEHALL AND ARCADIA AROUND 1105 PM...
  BLAIR AND HIGHWAY 95 AND COUNTY G AROUND 1110 PM...

THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS...POSSIBLY IN 
EXCESS OF 70 MPH...WILL MOVE FROM THE MONDOVI AND MODENA 
AREAS...TOWARD CHIMNEY ROCK...MONTANA...WHITEHALL...AND ARCADIA 
THROUGH 1115 PM CDT. THESE SAME STORMS HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT 
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THESE STRONG 
WINDS WILL SPREAD TOWARD NORTHWEST JACKSON COUNTY AFTER 11 PM. AREAS 
OF EASTERN WABASHA COUNTY MAY SEE WINDS FROM 50 TO 60 MPH ALONG THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 1115 PM. 

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4439 9084 4420 9114 4410 9129 4413 9170
      4421 9183 4420 9212 4444 9236 4445 9236
      4441 9209 4459 9199 4459 9093 4451 9090
      4451 9080 4442 9080

$$

BINAU

000 
WWUS53 KARX 140359
SVSARX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1056 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

MNC157-140406-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-070814T0415Z/
WABASHA MN-
1056 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WABASHA COUNTY 
IS CANCELLED...

IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RIVER INTO 
WISCONSIN WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE 
AREA...HENCE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4439 9084 4420 9114 4410 9129 4413 9170
      4421 9183 4422 9186 4437 9196 4441 9209
      4441 9209 4459 9199 4459 9093 4451 9090
      4451 9080 4442 9080

$$

WIC011-053-121-140415-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-070814T0415Z/
BUFFALO WI-TREMPEALEAU WI-JACKSON WI-
1056 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...TREMPEALEAU AND BUFFALO COUNTIES...

AT 1056 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF MONDOVI TO 
10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONDOVI TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALMA...MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WHITEHALL AND SQUARE BLUFF AROUND 1105 PM...
  ARCADIA AND PRICE AROUND 1110 PM...
  FRANKLIN AND HIXTON ALMA CENTER K O A AROUND 1115 PM...

THESE STORMS STILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND...THOUGH SOME 
WEAKENING HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES. THE STRONGEST WIND 
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE CENTERED FROM CHIMNEY ROCK TO WHITEHALL AND 
ARCADIA...TOWARD FRANKLIN AND NORTHFIELD.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICE
AND TELL THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4439 9084 4420 9114 4410 9129 4413 9170
      4421 9183 4422 9186 4437 9196 4441 9209
      4441 9209 4459 9199 4459 9093 4451 9090
      4451 9080 4442 9080

$$

BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
934 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

.UPDATE...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WAS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
ACTUAL SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS FROM UPSTREAM LOCATIONS IN MN. IN
ADDITION...LATEST RUC SUPPORTS INCREASING FEED OF INSTABILITY ON
STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT.

CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...SO ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES
WILL BE TO TWEAK RAIN PROBABILITIES UPWARD DUE TO IMMINENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...HAVE SPOKEN WITH SPC AND A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ISSUED SOON.
THUS...UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE PENDING ARRIVAL OF THE WATCH...BUT
SHOULD BE OUT BY 03Z THIS EVENING.

PLEASE REFERENCE OUR LATEST LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK...SHORT TERM FORECASTS...AND SPC INFORMATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA/SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT...
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE
PERIOD.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD WITH 3HR PRESSURE FALLS OF 1.5 TO 2.5MB FROM SOUTHERN MAN TO
WESTERN IA. SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUED TO FIRE OVER EASTERN
ND/NORTHWEST MN...ON NOSE OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/LOW
LEVEL JET AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE. COMPLEX OVER NORTHWEST MN WAS
WEAKENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS MORE SOUTHERLY OVER EASTERN
SD/ND. SFC DEW POINT ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE POOL OF 70F+ DEW POINTS
ACROSS IA/EASTERN SD AND NEARBY AREAS. SFC/MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN
THIS AIRMASS ON THE ORDER OF 3K-4K J/KG EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z
KABR/KMSP SOUNDINGS INDICATE MASSIVE CAPPING OF THE AIRMASS IN THE
850-700MB LAYER OVER EASTERN SD/CENTRAL MN...WITH RATHER STEEP 700-
500MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS LAYER.

NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED IN 13/12Z NAM/GFS INITIALIZATIONS...WITH
MODELS OFFERING REASONABLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT INTO THU
NIGHT. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 13/12Z SHOWED THE 11/12Z AND 12/12Z
NAM/GFS VERIFIED QUITE WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC. THRU 36HRS
MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AS HGTS
SLOWLY FALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWEST. TREND IS TOWARD MORE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE
EASTERN PAC OFF THE WEST COAST. FOR 36-84HRS MODEL TREND IS TOWARD A
STRONGER/FASTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITION OVER EASTERN CAN...PRODUCING STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION. TREND CONTINUES SLOWER...MORE CUT-OFF WITH THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST...RESULTING IN MORE RIDGING ALOFT
ACROSS WESTERN NOAM AND A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NOAM.
CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS BEST
WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM. NEITHER MODEL APPEARED
TO DO ALL THAT WELL WITH THE 12Z-18Z PRECIP ACROSS THE CONUS...
MISSING MUCH OF THE IA AND EASTERN ND PRECIP THIS MORNING. PER WV
IMAGERY...NAM WAS TOO STRONG WITH A 34 UNIT VORT-MAX NEAR THE MAN/MN
BORDER BUT IT DID LOOK BETTER WITH THE BROADER SHORTWAVE OVER
CENTRAL ND. 700MB WIND PROFILER AND VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SHOWED NAM
LOOKING A BIT BETTER WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WITH NEITHER MODEL LOOKING TO OUT-PERFORM THE OTHER AT 18Z
AND LITTLE REASON TO FAVOR ONE OVER THE OTHER...FAVORED A NAM/GFS
BLEND. SHORT-TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...STAGE BECOMING SET FOR ANOTHER STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING...
THEN ROLL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WITH ML CAPES OF 2K-3K J/KG THIS EVENING TO
BE ADVECTED INTO CENTRAL MN...IN GOOD 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON NOSE OF 25-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. AS MID LEVEL WAVE
ACROSS ND MOVES EAST AND HELPS ERODE THE CAP AND SFC TROUGH/FRONT
PROVIDES SOME CONVERGENCE/LIFT THIS EVENING...MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS POINTS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION NORTHWEST OF THE TWIN
CITIES. CORFIDI VECTORS THEN POINT SOUTHEAST. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN
THE 40-60KT RANGE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
BETTER THREAT OF A SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND SYSTEM TONIGHT AS COLD
POOL ORGANIZES AND COMPLEX ROLLS SOUTHEAST. SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE
DETAILS OF THE SLIGHT/MDT SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
RAISED POPS FOR TONIGHT A BIT TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. SYSTEM EXITS
RATHER QUICKLY EARLY TUE MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH/FRONT. SOME WEAK 850-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IA...
FOR A SMALL AFTERNOON CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH END
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE THRU THE FLAT RIDGING/
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE NIGHT/WED INCREASES THE 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO/OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IA. CONTINUED/
EXPANDED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUE
NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. FORECAST THIS TIME PERIOD DEPENDANT ON MESO-
SCALE DETAILS OF FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WITH MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THESE FEATURES OF
LATE...LEFT THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT IN THE CHANCE
RANGE. APPEARS DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR A DRIER DAY THU. ONLY
CARRIED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THU. DRY FORECAST FOR THU NIGHT LOOKS WELL TRENDED AS
THE DRIER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.

GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT SIMILAR AND LOOK GOOD. FAVORED BLEND OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS TUE WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND NORTHWEST WINDS. USED
BLEND OF GFS/NAM MAV/MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TUE NIGHT. WITH THREAT OF
SHRA/TSRA AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WED...LEANED TOWARD COOLER OF
GUIDANCE HIGHS WHICH BLENDS WELL WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS FOR NOW.
FORECAST GRID HIGHS WED MAY STILL BE 5-10F TOO WARM IF MORE WIDE-
SPREAD SHRA/TSRA AND CLOUDS ARE THE NORM. FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE
LOWS FOR WED NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS AND THE RAIN THREAT. WITH BELOW
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BY THU...TRENDED THU/THU NIGHT HIGHS/
LOWS TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE VALUES.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

13/00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET RUNS REMAIN IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOOKS TO OFFER A GOOD
COMPROMISE OF THE INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE RUNS. ECMWF
LOOKS TO HAVE A BIT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OUT TO 168HRS.
OVERALL LONG-WAVE PATTERN CONSENSUS IS FOR A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...RIDGING ALOFT OVER WESTERN NOAM AND
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CAN...WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINING UNDER
BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST 10
DAYS TO 2 WEEKS...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES...BUT PLENTY OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MESO-SCALE DETAILS
OF SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THRU THE FLOW AND LOCATIONS OF SFC
BOUNDARIES. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HAS DRIER/COOLER CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRI...SO LEFT THIS
PERIOD DRY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD FRI...THEN TAILS
OFF FOR SAT-MON AS MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF TIMING/STRENGTH
OF SHORTWAVES THRU THE FLOW AND EXTENT OF 850-700MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NORTH/EAST-WARD OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
DRAPED SOMEWHERE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CARRIED SOME
CHANGE RANGE POPS FOR FRI NIGHT-MON FOR NOW...THOUGH NOT ALL OF
THESE PERIODS WILL BE WET. PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT OUT THE DETAIL
DIFFERENCES BY THEN. WITH AREA UNDER INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OR CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC...TEMPS LOOK TO BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR FRI-MON. GFS MEX/ENSEMBLE MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE TEMPS
ALL QUITE SIMILAR AND LOOK WELL TRENDED FOR NOW.

AVIATION...

A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RIDE OVER THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS COMPLEX WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING APPROACHING THEM BY 03Z. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE AREAS ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ABOVE SEVERE CRITERIA. AS PER
PREVIOUS TAFS DID INCLUDE THE LATEST TIMING FOR THE CONVECTION AT
THE TAF SITES.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS
AVIATION..........RABERDING

&&

THOMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
825 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-053>055-061-141100-
ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
825 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST IOWA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

...HIGH IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRAW A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST...TRIGGERING A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COMPLEX WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 70 TO 80 MPH.

LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. IN ADDITION...
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ROLLED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM 10 PM TO 5 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SEVERAL WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...
IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO KNOW THE EXACT TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES AS
WELL AS THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPECT ACTIVATION
TONIGHT. GROUPS FROM THE ROCHESTER MINNESOTA AREA TOWARD BLACK RIVER
FALLS...NEILLSVILLE AND MEDFORD WISCONSIN ARE ENCOURAGED TO BE READY
FOR ACTIVATION BETWEEN 9 PM AND 11 PM.

SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...INCLUDING SUCH LOCATIONS AS THE
DECORAH AND CHARLES CITY IOWA AREAS...LA CROSSE...SPARTA...MAUSTON...
RICHLAND CENTER...PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AND LANCASTER WISCONSIN...ARE
ENCOURAGED TO BE READY FOR ACTIVATION TOWARD 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT AND
THEREAFTER.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS TO ASSIST IN WHEN AND WHERE
YOUR LOCAL SPOTTER GROUP WILL BE NEEDED FOR DEPLOYMENT...AS WELL AS
BEING CALLED BACK IN AFTER THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS PASSED.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.

DAS/JLR/THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
429 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W INDEPENDENCE        44.36N 91.46W
08/12/2007                   TREMPEALEAU        WI   PUBLIC

            MANY 2-4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWNED. SCATTERED
            ISOLATED TREES DOWN IN THE AREA. POWER OUTAGE FOR 6
            HOURS. REPORTED A BIT MORE WIND DAMAGE FURTHER NORTH
            TOWARD ELK CREEK.

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N WASHINGTON          43.79N 92.35W
08/12/2007                   FILLMORE           MN   PUBLIC

            A FEW TREES DOWN AROUND THE AREA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LEAF
            LITTER AS WELL.

1030 PM     HAIL             1 N WASHINGTON          43.78N 92.35W
08/12/2007  E0.88 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 7 MINUTES.

1031 PM     HAIL             1 NE WASHINGTON         43.77N 92.34W
08/12/2007  E0.25 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   PUBLIC

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
431 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             3 E KASSON              44.03N 92.69W
08/11/2007  E0.75 INCH       DODGE              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ON DODGE AND OLMSTED COUNTY BORDER ON HIGHWAY 14.

&&
THIS REPORT CORRECTS THE BYRON HAIL REPORT IN OLMSTED COUNTY FOR THE
SAME TIME. HAIL WAS REPORTED FURTHER WEST.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
434 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W INDEPENDENCE        44.36N 91.46W
08/11/2007                   TREMPEALEAU        WI   PUBLIC

            MANY 2-4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWNED. SCATTERED
            ISOLATED TREES DOWN IN THE AREA. POWER OUTAGE FOR 6
            HOURS. REPORTED A BIT MORE WIND DAMAGE FURTHER NORTH
            TOWARD ELK CREEK.

1030 PM     HAIL             1 N WASHINGTON          43.78N 92.35W
08/11/2007  E0.88 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 7 MINUTES.

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N WASHINGTON          43.79N 92.35W
08/11/2007                   FILLMORE           MN   PUBLIC

            A FEW TREES DOWN AROUND THE AREA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LEAF
            LITTER AS WELL.

1031 PM     HAIL             1 NE WASHINGTON         43.77N 92.34W
08/11/2007  E0.25 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   PUBLIC

&&
CORRECTED THE DAY FROM AUG 12 TO AUG 11.

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
435 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             3 E KASSON              44.03N 92.69W
08/11/2007  E0.75 INCH       DODGE              MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ON DODGE AND OLMSTED COUNTY BORDER ON HIGHWAY 14.

0927 PM     HAIL             PLEASANTVILLE           44.45N 91.30W
08/11/2007  E0.50 INCH       TREMPEALEAU        WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0928 PM     HAIL             BYRON                   44.03N 92.65W
08/11/2007  E0.75 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

            REPORTED AT THE SOMERBY GOLF COURSE

0928 PM     HAIL             BYRON                   44.03N 92.65W
08/11/2007  E0.50 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   STORM CHASER

0941 PM     TSTM WND GST     WHITEHALL               44.37N 91.31W
08/11/2007  E50.00 MPH       TREMPEALEAU        WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFFICERS ESTIMATE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 40 MPH WITH
            GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

0943 PM     HAIL             4 N BYRON               44.09N 92.65W
08/11/2007  E0.75 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

0943 PM     HAIL             3 SE BYRON              44.00N 92.60W
08/11/2007  E1.00 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            WINDS ALSO MEASURED AT 43 MPH.

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W INDEPENDENCE        44.36N 91.46W
08/11/2007                   TREMPEALEAU        WI   PUBLIC

            MANY 2-4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWNED. SCATTERED
            ISOLATED TREES DOWN IN THE AREA. POWER OUTAGE FOR 6
            HOURS. REPORTED A BIT MORE WIND DAMAGE FURTHER NORTH
            TOWARD ELK CREEK.

0955 PM     HAIL             ROCHESTER               44.01N 92.48W
08/11/2007  E0.75 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FELL AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 52 AND 63.

0958 PM     HAIL             INDEPENDENCE            44.36N 91.42W
08/11/2007  E0.50 INCH       TREMPEALEAU        WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

1002 PM     HAIL             ROCHESTER               44.01N 92.48W
08/11/2007  E1.75 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER TO GOLFBALL HAIL 2 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 52 AND
            63 INTERSECTION.

1003 PM     HAIL             2 NE ROCHESTER AIRPORT  43.93N 92.47W
08/11/2007  M1.00 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

1005 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROCHESTER               44.01N 92.48W
08/11/2007  M74.00 MPH       OLMSTED            MN   ASOS

1006 PM     HAIL             2 SE ROCHESTER          43.99N 92.45W
08/11/2007  E1.00 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1008 PM     HAIL             ROCHESTER               44.01N 92.48W
08/11/2007  E1.00 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            OCCURRED AT ROCHESTER AIRPORT.

1008 PM     HAIL             2 SE ROCHESTER          43.99N 92.45W
08/11/2007  E1.25 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1010 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLAINVIEW               44.17N 92.17W
08/11/2007  M49.00 MPH       WABASHA            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED WIND GUST. TREE BRANCHES AND SOME WIRES DOWN
            AROUND TOWN.

1013 PM     TSTM WND GST     STEWARTVILLE            43.86N 92.49W
08/11/2007  E55.00 MPH       OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1014 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLAINVIEW               44.17N 92.17W
08/11/2007                   WABASHA            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN.

1014 PM     HAIL             3 NW ARCADIA            44.28N 91.54W
08/11/2007  E0.75 INCH       BUFFALO            WI   PUBLIC

1018 PM     HAIL             4 SE ROCHESTER          43.97N 92.42W
08/11/2007  E1.00 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1020 PM     TSTM WND GST     BUFFALO                 44.22N 91.87W
08/11/2007  E70.00 MPH       BUFFALO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. TREES DOWN...ONE OVER A ROAD

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N WASHINGTON          43.79N 92.35W
08/11/2007                   FILLMORE           MN   PUBLIC

            A FEW TREES DOWN AROUND THE AREA. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LEAF
            LITTER AS WELL.

1030 PM     HAIL             1 N WASHINGTON          43.78N 92.35W
08/11/2007  E0.88 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 7 MINUTES.

1030 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINONA                  44.05N 91.66W
08/11/2007                   WINONA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DOWN IN THE WESTERN PART OF WINONA AND 51 MPH
            WIND GUST IN DOWNTOWN WINONA.

1031 PM     HAIL             1 NE WASHINGTON         43.77N 92.34W
08/11/2007  E0.25 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   PUBLIC

1032 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E SHAMROCK            44.18N 90.78W
08/11/2007                   JACKSON            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN.

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MINDORO                 44.02N 91.10W
08/11/2007                   LA CROSSE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINE DOWN.

1036 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE CATARACT           44.13N 90.77W
08/11/2007                   MONROE             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN.

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW HOLMEN            43.96N 91.28W
08/11/2007                   LA CROSSE          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE 5 INCH DIAMTER AND ONE 20 FOOT TALL PINE UPROOTED.
            TIME OF DAMAGE ESTIMATED.

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW HOLMEN            43.96N 91.28W
08/11/2007                   LA CROSSE          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ONE 5 INCH DIAMETER TREE AND A 20 FOOT TALL PINE
            UPROOTED. TIME OF DAMAGE ESTIMATED.

1041 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE CATARACT           44.14N 90.76W
08/11/2007  E50.00 MPH       MONROE             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

1041 PM     TSTM WND GST     CATARACT                44.09N 90.83W
08/11/2007  E0.00 MPH        MONROE             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN.

1044 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRICE PRAIRIE           43.94N 91.30W
08/11/2007                   LA CROSSE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN.

1046 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W WEST SALEM          43.90N 91.10W
08/11/2007                   LA CROSSE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN ON A CAR IN VETERNS PARK.

1048 PM     TSTM WND GST     LA CROSSE               43.83N 91.23W
08/11/2007  E45.00 MPH       LA CROSSE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

1049 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WARRENS                 44.13N 90.50W
08/11/2007                   MONROE             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN JELLYSTONE PARK. ONE
            ON A CAMPER WITH AN INJURY.

1049 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LA CROSSE               43.83N 91.23W
08/11/2007                   LA CROSSE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN IN THE SHELBY AREA.

1051 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E WHALAN              43.73N 91.91W
08/11/2007  E60.00 MPH       FILLMORE           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

1055 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOOSE ISLAND            43.74N 91.22W
08/11/2007                   LA CROSSE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN.

1059 PM     TSTM WND GST     TOMAH                   43.99N 90.50W
08/11/2007  E45.00 MPH       MONROE             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW WARRENS           44.10N 90.59W
08/11/2007                   MONROE             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WIDESPREAD TREES DOWN. A FEW TREES WERE 15 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER.

1105 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW TOMAH              44.06N 90.60W
08/11/2007  E65.00 MPH       MONROE             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

1107 PM     TSTM WND GST     TOMAH                   43.99N 90.50W
08/11/2007  E55.00 MPH       MONROE             WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            WINDS OF 50 TO 55 MPH.

1116 PM     TSTM WND GST     VOLK FIELD              43.93N 90.27W
08/11/2007  M59.00 MPH       JUNEAU             WI   ASOS

1125 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W NECEDAH             44.02N 90.09W
08/11/2007  M68.00 MPH       JUNEAU             WI   MESONET

            MEASURED WIND GUST BY FIRE WEATHER RAWS SITE

1126 PM     HAIL             SPRING GROVE            43.56N 91.64W
08/11/2007  E0.50 INCH       HOUSTON            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1128 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BUCKHORN STATE PARK     43.92N 89.98W
08/11/2007                   JUNEAU             WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            SMALL TREES DOWN.

1128 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S MAUSTON             43.73N 90.08W
08/11/2007                   JUNEAU             WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN.

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STRONGS PRAIRIE         44.07N 89.98W
08/11/2007                   ADAMS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN.

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DELLWOOD                43.97N 89.96W
08/11/2007                   ADAMS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE NECEDAH            44.00N 90.04W
08/11/2007                   JUNEAU             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            AT LEAST 6 TREES DOWN. LARGEST TREE WAS 14 INCHES IN
            DIAMETER. MINOR DAMAGE ALSO TO FENCE AND BARN.

1131 PM     TSTM WND GST     NECEDAH                 44.02N 90.07W
08/11/2007  E50.00 MPH       JUNEAU             WI   AMATEUR RADIO

1133 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NECEDAH                 44.02N 90.07W
08/11/2007                   JUNEAU             WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN.

1135 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW WHITE CREEK        43.81N 89.89W
08/11/2007                   ADAMS              WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN...ONE BLOCKING A ROAD.

1145 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 E MAUSTON             43.80N 89.90W
08/11/2007  E60.00 MPH       JUNEAU             WI   AMATEUR RADIO

1145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HILLSBORO               43.65N 90.34W
08/11/2007                   VERNON             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN IN HILLSBORO.

1145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ONTARIO                 43.72N 90.59W
08/11/2007                   VERNON             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN ONTARIO.

1145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADAMS                   43.96N 89.82W
08/11/2007                   ADAMS              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES ON HOUSES. TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES
            CAUSING HOUSE FIRES. RAILROAD CROSSINGS BLOWN DOWN.

1150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW BROOKS            43.77N 89.66W
08/11/2007                   ADAMS              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HIGHWAY 82. WIDESPREAD TREE LIMBS DOWN.
            LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON TRAILER AT CAMPSITE. POWER OUT.

&&

DB