Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2007

Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Gaylord, MI

April 3, 2007

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Apr 3, 2007, 5:21 AM EDT. It took effect at Apr 4, 2007, 5:00 AM EDT. It was in force for . No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Apr 3, 2007, 5:21 AM EDT (09:21 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 4, 2007, 5:00 AM EDT
Expired
Apr 4, 2007, 3:55 AM EDT
In force
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 030921
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
521 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA...COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
STORM...CHANGING ANY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL
SNOW.

MIZ008-015-032330-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0006.070404T0000Z-070405T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0005.070404T0000Z-070405T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
521 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL MICHIGAN. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT AS
THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...WITH COLD AIR QUICKLY WRAPPING INTO
THE AREA...CHANGING ANY LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW. SNOW IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...HEAVY AT TIMES...TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS
STRONG WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>028-031>033-032330-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0007.070404T0600Z-070405T0600Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
521 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
USHER IN COLD AIR CHANGING LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 6
INCHES OR MORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FALLING SNOW MIXED
WITH WINDS THIS STRONG COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MC
5 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 031439
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1039 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
SPREADING PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA...COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
STORM...CHANGING ANY INITIAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL
SNOW.

MIZ008-015-032200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.070404T0000Z-070405T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1039 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL
MICHIGAN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENS...WITH COLD AIR
QUICKLY WRAPPING INTO THE AREA...CHANGING ANY LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...
HEAVY AT TIMES...TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>028-031>033-032200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0007.070404T0600Z-070405T0600Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1039 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
USHER IN COLD AIR CHANGING LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF
6 INCHES OR MORE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. FURTHERMORE...NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FALLING SNOW MIXED WITH WINDS THIS STRONG COULD CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 032026
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
426 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO WRAP SNOW BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY... WITH SNOWFALL ENHANCED BY COLDER AIR SWEEPING ACROSS
LAKES MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH EXPECTED.
THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND
POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

MIZ008-015-041000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0005.070404T0900Z-070405T0900Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE MARIE...ST IGNACE
426 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM
EDT THURSDAY...

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
5 AM EDT THURSDAY. 

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE TOWARD LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS OFF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 8 TO 15 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY
THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF I-75.

IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY...GUSTING OVER 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE UPPER PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING
AND BLOWING SNOW. PERSONS EXPECTING TO TRAVEL WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY NEED TO ALTER PLANS...AS DRIVING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


$$

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>028-031>033-041000-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.A.0007.070404T1200Z-070405T0900Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PELLSTON...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
LELAND...BELLAIRE...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
426 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SNOWFALL
TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 10 INCHES OR
MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...GUSTING OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO UNDER ONE QUARTER
MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

JPB
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 040241
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1041 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO WRAP SNOW BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...
WITH SNOWFALL ENHANCED BY COLDER AIR SWEEPING ACROSS LAKES
MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH EXPECTED. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND
POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

MIZ008-015-041645-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.070404T0900Z-070405T0900Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1041 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
5 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
5 AM EDT THURSDAY. 

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...
AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE TOWARD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
OFF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 8 TO 15 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-75.

IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY...GUSTING OVER 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE UPPER PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PERSONS EXPECTING TO TRAVEL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY NEED TO ALTER PLANS...AS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>028-031>033-041645-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0007.070404T1200Z-070405T0900Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1041 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SNOWFALL
TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 10 INCHES OR
MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...GUSTING OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO UNDER
ONE QUARTER MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

JL
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 040300 CCA
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1057 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

CORRECTED UGC PRODUCT EXPIRATION TIME

...A STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM TO IMPACT EASTERN UPPER AND
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT...AND THEN INTO NORTHEAST
ONTARIO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WRAP SNOW
BACK INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY... WITH
SNOWFALL ENHANCED BY COLDER AIR SWEEPING ACROSS LAKES MICHIGAN AND
SUPERIOR. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH EXPECTED. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND POSSIBLE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

MIZ008-015-041715-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.070404T0900Z-070405T0900Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1057 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
5 AM EDT THURSDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
5 AM EDT THURSDAY. 

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND PICK UP IN INTENSITY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...
AND WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION MORE TOWARD LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
OFF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 8 TO 15 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-75.

IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY...GUSTING OVER 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TRAVEL ACROSS MUCH OF
THE UPPER PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY IN
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PERSONS EXPECTING TO TRAVEL WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY NEED TO ALTER PLANS...AS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>028-031>033-041715-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0007.070404T1200Z-070405T0900Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
1057 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH SNOWFALL
TRANSITIONING TOWARD MORE TRADITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH 10 INCHES OR
MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY MORNING...GUSTING OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO UNDER
ONE QUARTER MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

JL
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 040755
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 AM EDT WED APR 4 2007

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL NORTHEAST OF MICHIGAN TODAY.
AREAS OF HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH CAUSE
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.


MIZ008-015-042200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.070404T0900Z-070405T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.070404T1200Z-070405T1200Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
355 AM EDT WED APR 4 2007

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN...AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY LATE MORNING.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT
TIMES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10
INCHES...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT...FOR
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 8 TO 15 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-75.

BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

$$

MIZ016-017-019>022-025>028-031>033-042200-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0007.070404T1200Z-070405T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.070404T1200Z-070405T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY
355 AM EDT WED APR 4 2007

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...
AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY LATE MORNING. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 45 MPH CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...AND
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.
TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...
WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH
10 INCHES OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

$$

MIZ018-023-024-029-030-034>036-041-042-042200-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SB.Y.0004.070404T1200Z-070405T1200Z/
PRESQUE ISLE-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-OSCODA-ALCONA-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-
IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROGERS CITY...ATLANTA...ALPENA...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...HOUGHTON LAKE...WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...
GLADWIN...STANDISH
355 AM EDT WED APR 4 2007

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS
MORNING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY. 

SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN... AND WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY MIDDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW...AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A HALF OF A
MILE AT TIMES. TOTAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY... WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS MAY REACH UP TO 6 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

$$

MR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Apr 3, 4:35 AM EDT, 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 3, 4:35 AM EDT, 46 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
435 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...04Z SURFACE/RUC ANALYSIS AND IR/VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.  STRONG 850MB
LLJ (50KTS) AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING DEEP MASS
CONVERGENCE ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
THIS MASS CONVERGENCE HAS TRIGGERED A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHILE LIGHTER RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS EVEN FARTHER NORTH OVER MINNESOTA/EASTERN
DAKOTAS DUE TO 295K ISENTROPIC LIFT/-DIV Q AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS
WELL AS A PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE AS COLD ARCTIC AIR IS ADVECTED
SOUTH FROM A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CANADA.  THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
RESULTING IN A PLETHORA OF FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDING
THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY...AND HEAVY SNOW BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AS ARCTIC PLUNGES SOUTH BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND REACH
NORTHERN IOWA BY 12Z AND SW LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z WED.  THE NAM/GFS
SHOW THE LLJ AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL REFOCUS THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE...AND EXPECT THE PRECIP OVER SW
LOWER MICHIGAN CURRENTLY TO RUN OUT OF GAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS IT
TRACKS ENE AND RUNS INTO DRIER AIR OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN (00Z APX
SOUNDING PWAT OF 0.32) AND AWAY FROM THE FORCING OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT/900-700MB FGEN/AND 850MB THETA-E
CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA CLOSER TO THE BEST FORCING.
THUNDER ALSO APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET SOUTH OF M-72 DUE TO
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG FORCING DUE TO LIFT OVER
THE WARM FRONT.  THEREFORE...EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO LIFT ENE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON IMPACTING THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA FIRST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE SOME WHILE TO MOISTEN AFTER A DRY START WITH A
K-INDEX OF AROUND 20 BY 18Z TUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA.  WILL TAKE OUT MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
SINCE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/STRONGEST FORCING LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AFTER 18Z WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LLJ JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW/SHORTWAVE AND BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALOFT.  BY 00Z..PWATS
OVER 1 INCH AND K-INDICES BETWEEN 30-35 ARRIVE GENERALLY SOUTH OF
M-32 AND 700-500MB LAPSE RATES ABOVE 6 C/KM UP TO THE BRIDGE WHERE
STRONGEST FGEN FORCING AND 850MB THETAE CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE.
THE STRONG INVERSION AT 850MB LOOKS TO KEEP ANY SEVERE WIND THREAT
UNDER CONTROL...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DUE TO LARGE HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA NEAR GLADWIN/ARENAC
COUNTIES WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE WILL
RESIDE AS WELL AS 200-400 J/KG OF CAPE ABOVE 850MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WHERE THE STRONGEST 900-700MB
FGEN/300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESIDE...AND AHEAD OF THE 850MB LOW
CENTER WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE LLJ WILL
EXIST.  DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ALL RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE STRONG COLD
ADVECTION SETS IN.  THE SAME CANNOT BE SAID FOR EASTERN UPPER.
GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW ALL SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CHIP/MAC COUNTIES...ALL RAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS NEAR
DRUMMOND ISLAND...AND A MIX INBETWEEN WHERE A TRANSITION WILL OCCUR
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS ON IN. BY MIDDLE TO LATE EVENING...MODELS
AGREE THAT A DEEP DRY SLOT WILL DECREASE PRECIP INTENSITY AS
MOISTURE FALLS BELOW THE -10C ISOTHERM.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND LIGHT
SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.  THEN DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNS OVERNIGHT AS THE TROWAL MOVES OVERHEAD WITHIN A REGION OF
STRONG COLD ADVECTION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE FALLING BELOW 0C AT ALL LOCATIONS.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WHERE BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES RESIDE FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME.  BUT
STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT MUCH ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT SINCE THERE IS
A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER BELOW -10C UP TO AROUND 700MB.  WILL TEMPER
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TOMORROW NIGHT FOR EASTERN UPPER...GENERALLY IN
THE 2-5 INCH RANGE DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE.
HOWEVER...DUE TO INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY SNOW
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING WINDS DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT (MORE ON THIS BELOW)...WILL HOIST WINTER STORM WARNINGS UP
FOR EASTERN UPPER STARTING 00Z WED. WILL ALSO HOIST A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE TIP OF THE MITT AND NW LOWER COUNTIES STARTING AT 06Z...JUST
PRIOR TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS
(AGAIN...MORE ON THIS BELOW) WHICH WILL ARRIVE LATER THAN COUNTIES
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER.

MPC

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CAA WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS OUR
CWA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE DEEP LOW SLIDES EAST OF NRN
MICHIGAN. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DROP FROM THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AT
12Z WEDNESDAY TO THE NEGATIVE MID TEENS BY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR OF THAT MAGNITUDE WILL THEN REMAIN OVERHEAD INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWER
PRODUCTION. SEVERAL LIFTING MECHANISMS AT PLAY BY THIS
TIME...INCLUDING THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...THE LFQ OF A 300 MB JET MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING
500 MB TROUGH...DEEP/SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW AS WELL AS BUILDING
OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY. ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE TO NOTE IS SEEN
ON THE LATEST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A RATHER THICK ISOTHERMAL LAYER AT
AROUND -15 C EXTENDING FROM JUST BELOW 800 MB THRU 600 MB
(IMPRESSIVE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH). SHIFTING LOW LEVEL WINDS OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN VCNTY OF THE LOW CENTER WILL LOCK INTO A SOLID
NW FLOW (320-300 DEGREES)...TARGETING PORTIONS OF ERN UPR AND MUCH
OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN FOR GREATEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ALL OF THE ABOVE
POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL. TO MAKE THINGS
WORSE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GREATLY TIGHTEN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH. FALLING SNOW COMBINED WITH BLOWING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VSBYS. THIS IS A VERY COMPLEX WINTER WX
SITUATION...AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. FOR NOW...WILL
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR NRN AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN ZONES
WHERE BEST DEFORMATION WILL RESIDE AND WHERE NW FLOW LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. STAY TUNED...

THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY...DEEP DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ACTUALLY RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND...
REINFORCING DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...COLD AIR AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL NW FLOW WILL REMAIN IN TACT AS
WELL...AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER NEGATIVE
TEENS...LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST THRU SATURDAY (AT
LEAST). WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE TYPICAL
SNOWBELT REGIONS OF ERN UPR AND NW LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.AVIATION...THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING THEIR ATTACK RUN AT THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE LOWER CLOUDS ARE RETREATING PRETTY QUICKLY.
HAVE PRETTY MUCH A SCT LOWER CLOUDS IDEA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN
PLN AND APN, WHILE THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE IN TVC. OTHERWISE, THE
RAIN WILL TRY TO GET INTO TVC AROUND 12Z. AFTER ALL THAT IS SAID AND
DONE, THE CIGS AND VSBY DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FORECAST AREA AND RAIN SHOWERS BECOME MORE
LIKELY AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH THE RAIN BY THE EVENING.

LUTZ

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     WINTER STORM WATCH...00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY
        MIZ008-015.
     WINTER STORM WATCH...06Z WEDNESDAY THRU 06Z THURSDAY
        MIZ016-017-019>022-025>028-031>033.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 2, 4:23 PM EDT, 12 hours 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
423 PM EDT MON APR 2 2007

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-031000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
423 PM EDT MON APR 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN TOMORROW INTO
WEDNESDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72 ON TUESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED...THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY.

COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE STORM WILL BRING THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR THIS AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO INCLUDE MUCH
OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...
WHERE SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE INLAND AND GALE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE LAKES.

ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME
COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN SOME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE NEEDED
FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS BY WEDNESDAY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 3, 5:21 AM EDTWinter Storm WatchAPXAntrim, Benzie, Cheboygan, Crawford, Emmet, Grand Traverse and 6 more23 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2007Every winter storm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.