Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 182122
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
522 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

MIC031-182200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-071018T2200Z/
CHEBOYGAN MI-
522 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR CHEBOYGAN COUNTY...

AT 521 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
19 MILES SOUTH OF TOWER...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF 
ATLANTA...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALOHA STATE PARK...
  TOWER...
  BLACK LAKE...
  ALVERNO...
  ALOHA...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE
TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4529 8426 4528 8438 4529 8448 4538 8455
      4552 8455 4564 8425 4549 8425 4549 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 180DEG 0KT 4508 8435

$$

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 182159
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
559 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

MIC031-182209-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-071018T2200Z/
CHEBOYGAN MI-
559 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHEBOYGAN COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

AT 559 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAD EXITED
THE AREA. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND
OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.
IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY
IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4529 8426 4528 8438 4529 8448 4538 8455
      4552 8455 4564 8425 4549 8425 4549 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 180DEG 0KT 4508 8435

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
457 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...982 MB SFC LOW CENTERED OVER THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN
BORDER HEADING TOWARD DULUTH...WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING UP
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. EARLIER WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
EXITED THE REGION WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT DRIVING UP THROUGH NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN RIGHT IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT BRINGING SOME CLEARING
AND HEATING TO THE SRN COUNTIES. WITHIN THE DRY SLOT...SOME SFC
BASED INSTABILITY ANALYZED FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. MEANWHILE...SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING
(COLD FRONT ALOFT) UNDERWAY FROM WISCONSIN NOSING INTO WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ATTM AIDING DESTABILIZATION. ALREADY A FEW ROTATING STORMS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AS WELL AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FIRING UPSTREAM IN EASTERN WISCONSIN HEADING
THIS WAY.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/PROPAGATION/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
MENTIONED...SOME ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ONGOING OVER NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN AIDED PRIMARILY BY FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BUT
NOT THE MAIN SHOW HOWEVER AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE
SHAPE TO THE S/SW (SE WISCONSIN/NRN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AREA) AND
EXPAND N/NE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MID AND UPPER JET CORE
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER DIVERGENCE PUNCHES UP ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN
(500 MB FLOW OF 60-80 KNOTS). MEANWHILE...RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND AID
DESTABILIZATION WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MLCAPES RUNNING IN
THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT A HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HENCE...THE TORNADO WATCH
FOR MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN THAT RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

ADAM

REST OF THE FORECAST (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...EXTENDED
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY DIVERGENCE OVER THE DETAILS. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN POPS
AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 12Z (WITH DEEP SURFACE
REFECTION OF ABOUT 980 MB). MOVEMENT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF LAKE SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES DURING THE MORNING. MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT TO FOLLOW FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OVER LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES.
THEREFORE...LINGERING BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST IN
THE MORNING BEFORE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ENHANCES DEVELOPING LAKE
EFFECT DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB TEMPERATURES STEADILY DROP
THROUGH THE DAY SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUIT
FALLING THROUGH THE 50S AFTER EARLY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...850 MB TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN PLUS 2 AND
PLUS 4 INCREASING OVER LAKE INSTABILITY LEADING TO CONTINUANCE OF
LAKE EFFECT. IN ADDITION...A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT (DPVA) LIKELY ENHANCING ACTIVITY. SOUTHWEST 900-700 MB
FLOW VEERS INTO THE WEST OVERNIGHT SO LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN FAVORED AREAS (LIKELY POPS) WITH CHANCE ELSEWHERE AS
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN RATHER MOIST (MEAN 900-700 MB RH 85 TO 95
PERCENT). LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S LARGELY HELD UP BY 10 TO
20 MPH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

SATURDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW GIVES WAY TO RAPID RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT AS PROGRESSIVE FLOW CONTINUES. THEREFORE...POSSIBLE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN WESTERLY FLOW AREAS IN THE MORNING
(MEAN 900-700 MB RH IS STILL AROUND 90 PERCENT AT 12Z) FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING (AS MEAN 900-700 MB RH FALLS OFF TO NEAR 30 PERCENT BY 18Z)
ALONG WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY...RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUES BUT HEIGHTS
SLOWLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH MID LEVELS REMAINING ON THE DRY
SIDE SO INCREASING CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE LEADING TO HIGHS OF WELL INTO THE 60S TO
THE LOWER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THIS IS WHERE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES CREEP
INTO THE FORECAST WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS OVER EVOLUTION OF
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN JET STREAMS AND POSSIBLE CUTOFF UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH BREAKING OFF FROM THE FLOW. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE. MODELS DO BRING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY LEADING TO CHANCE POPS. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ORDER FOR
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK BUT AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN
QUESTION. FOR NOW WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (WHICH IS COOLER THAN NATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND SURROUNDING OFFICES). THIS MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED MORE
BY LATER SHIFTS IF LATEST GFS/ECMWF COME TO FRUITION. WILL ALSO HAVE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE RIDGING AND
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO PENCILING IN A DRY DAY
FOR THURSDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES.

SULLIVAN

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED AT 152 PM.

1 OR 2 HOURS AT MOST IS EXPECTED WITH THE OVERCAST IFR CEILINGS.
KTVC HAS ALREADY MADE IT INTO A SCATTERED MVFR DECK...AND KAPN AND
KPLN WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL HOLD STEADY AROUND A SCT-BKN MVFR DECK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY MID EVENING TONIGHT...KICKING OFF
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS AROUND KPLN AND KTVC WILL SEE
THIS ACTIVITY SHORTLY AFTER 9 PM...WITH KAPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TOMORROW MORNING...CEILINGS WILL
FALL BACK DOWN TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2KFT IN A MUCH COOLER AND MOISTURE
LADEN AIRMASS.

KAS

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING THROUGH 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LH...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1157 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
191000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1157 AM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF M-32 IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 4
PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER.

GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE ZONES OF
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY REGARDLESS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. MANY AREAS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN CAN EXPECT GUSTS OF 30
TO 40 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH DUE TO SUCH A STRONG AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESIDE ALONG THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BORDER.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FELT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR
EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

ADAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
418 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL             MANCELONA               44.90N 85.06W
10/18/2007  M0.75 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN DOWNTOWN MANCELONA

&&

LUTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
438 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             2 W ELMIRA              45.07N 84.89W
10/18/2007  M0.88 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LUTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
440 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             1 W ELMIRA              45.07N 84.87W
10/18/2007  M1.50 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LUTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
459 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E MANCELONA           44.90N 85.04W
10/18/2007                   ANTRIM             MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTION OF SODERQUIST AND MANCELONA ROADS.

&&

LUTZ