Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 081552
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1152 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

MIC097-081645-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-070708T1645Z/
MACKINAC MI-
1152 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM EDT
FOR MACKINAC COUNTY...

AT 1147 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR INTERSTATE 75 MILE MARKER 364...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTH OF
MACKINAC ISLAND...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4599 8442 4600 8447 4616 8491 4616 8442
      4615 8437 4610 8437 4607 8434 4607 8424
      4600 8425 4599 8423

$$

LAWRENCE

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 081615
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1215 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

MIC097-081625-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0042.000000T0000Z-070708T1645Z/
MACKINAC MI-
1215 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MACKINAC COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 1215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
EXITED THE AREA. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4599 8442 4600 8447 4616 8491 4616 8442
      4615 8437 4610 8437 4607 8434 4607 8424
      4600 8425 4599 8423

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TSRA WILL MOVE THRU
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND WINDS AOA 50 KTS AT THE SURFACE IN AND NEAR
STORMS. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT AS THEY SHIFT SE INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.UPDATE...ISSUED 512 AM
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS TO REFLECT SVR TSRA WATCH 491
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 15Z. STRONG TO SVR TSRA IS DEVELOPING WHERE THE 45
KT 850 MB JET IS FEEDING INTO WRN UPPER MICHIGAN JUST ON THE FRINGE
OF THE MID LEVEL CAP WHERE CAPES ARE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND
PRONOUNCED 850 MB THETA E RIDGING RESIDES. WITH 850-500 MB BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 334 AM
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER NRN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW THRU LAKE
SUPERIOR INTO SE ONTARIO. ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION IS FIRING
ALONG THIS FRONT OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR IS MAKING STEADY SE
PROGRESS. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
DAKOTAS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPS SE THRU MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL FORECAST ISSUES
WILL REVOLVE AROUND HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA TAKES
PLACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. WEATHER THEN QUIETS
AND COOLS UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN ANOTHER NRN STREAM LOW MOVES THRU THE
WRN GREAT LAKES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL PRESS SE INTO CENTRAL UPR
MICHIGAN AND THE GREEN BAY AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO SE ONTARIO TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE STRAITS AREA DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN SLOWLY PUSH SE
TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY OVERNIGHT. STRONG CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT...WITH 700 MB TEMPS OF
AROUND +12 C. WARM MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 90S ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WELL INTO THE
80S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN. CAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...BUT AGAIN...STRONG CAP WILL GREATLY
LIMIT CONVECTION...AND AT THIS POINT...THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF TSRA AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THRU...AND IF SOMETHING DOES DEVELOP...A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR THRU THE COLUMN.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA FROM NW TO SE THRU TODAY
AND THIS EVENING...AND PULL CHANCES OF PRECIP OUT OF ERN UPR
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THIS REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDDAY
OR SO. WILL ALLOW FOR A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SRN
TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. LOW LEVEL CAA WILL PROVIDE
NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS...WITH HIGH TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE 50S.

LATER PERIODS (TUE-THU)...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT DURING
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIODS THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...SPECIFICALLY
IN REGARDS TO TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY.  BUT FOR TUESDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MIDDAY WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.  PRESENCE OF THERMAL TROUGHING WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
RANGING BETWEEN 10-13C MAY ALLOW SOME DIURNAL CU TO FORM BY LATE
MORNING.  AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS REACHES THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...STALLED OUT FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL RETURN
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW AS LIFT IS PRETTY MEAGER.  OTHERWISE...A COMFORTABLE DAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARDS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO SUPPORT A BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL
INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR EASTERN UPPER AND INTRODUCE POPS TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR NORTHERN LOWER.  MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
HELP 850MB DEWPOINTS INCREASE BETWEEN 12-14C WHILE PWATS INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR DECENT RAINFALL GIVEN THE
STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT.  HOWEVER...TIMING OF FROPA...WEAK LIS AROUND
-2C...AND MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO AROUND 400 J/KG WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.  CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEVERE
CHANCES WITH DECENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND DYNAMICS PRESENT.  FRONT
LOOKS TO EXIT THE CWA AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH COLD ADVECTION AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS 850MB TEMPS COOL TO THE
5-6C RANGE. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE THE COOLISH TEMPS...WEAK WAVES PASSING AROUND THE
UPPER TROUGH AND THE PRESENCE OF UNUSUALLY COOL 500MB TEMPS AROUND
-20C...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND
WILL KEEP CURRENT POP SITUATION GOING.

MPC

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1120 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-091000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1120 AM EDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WHILE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH AND LARGE
HAIL TO AN INCH AND A HALF IN DIAMETER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...AND THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M 55 IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SMD