Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Gaylord, MI

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 210341
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1141 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

MIC165-210415-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-070621T0415Z/
WEXFORD MI-
1141 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT
FOR WEXFORD COUNTY...

AT 1137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HOXEYVILLE...OR ABOUT 17 MILES WEST OF CADILLAC...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALL
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DEADLY LIGHTNING. REMAIN INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. IF CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM TALL OBJECTS AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER.

LAT...LON 4430 8582 4417 8582 4417 8555 4420 8561

$$

LAWRENCE

000 
WWUS34 KAPX 210352
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1152 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

MIC165-210402-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-070621T0415Z/
WEXFORD MI-
1152 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEXFORD COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 1152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
EXITED THE AREA. THE WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN CANCELLED.

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD.

LAT...LON 4430 8582 4417 8582 4417 8555 4420 8561

$$

LAWRENCE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

.UPDATE...WHAT REMAINS OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAD BEEN DROPPING STEADILY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED
THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRY AND
DEVELOP SOUTH OF M-32 IN AREAS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS COINCIDENT WITH 850MB THETA-E RIDGE
POKING INTO NORTHERN LOWER. MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH HELPED
INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SO DESPITE 01Z
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT JUST PASSING THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA...PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND EARLIER CONVECTION
HAS STABILIZED THINGS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND THE STRAITS AREA AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS.

SO WILL FOCUS REMAINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT TO AREAS
ALONG AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL THETA-E/ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH WILL LIE SOUTH OF M-72 FOR A WHILE TONIGHT THEN SINK
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER PENINSULA TOWARD DAYBREAK.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD BE PRETTY SPOTTY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ACROSS MN/WI
WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
UPPER/NORTHWEST WI SHOULD CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH A PUSH OF LOWER DEW POINTS BEHIND IT.

JPB

&&

.AVIATION... /ISSUED 731 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007/

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORIGINATED OVER UPPER MI/
NORTHEAST WI DROPPING SOUTH OF THE STRAITS...STRONGEST ACTIVITY
WILL IMPACT TVC THROUGH 01Z WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS. FARTHER EAST
ANTICIPATING RAIN AT PLN TO END AT TAF ISSUANCE...AND APN WITHIN
AN HOUR OR TWO. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER THAT...WITH COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED IN THE 05Z-09Z TIME FRAME. AS LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE POKES INTO LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...CANT RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD
IMPACT TVC THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SO THOUGH THINK THE BULK OF THE
EVENING PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF M-72. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THURSDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

JPB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007/

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS AND VIS/IR/WV/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE THE JUICIER
AIRMASS RESIDES. GREAT DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES 50-60KTS AND SB CAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG ARE SUPPORTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MQT. LEADING EDGE OF THIS JUICY AIR
REMAINS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER AND IS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR...USHERED IN BY A 30-40KTS 850MB LLJ. SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS THETAE GRADIENT
AND HAVE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND ARE CROSSING
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AT THE MOMENT. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT INCLUDE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
CONTINUE ITS ESE JAUNT AND PASS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING. BUT STRONG NW WINDS WITHIN A 105KT JET STREAK ALONG WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. COOL...DRY
AIRMASS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GAVE WAY TO A INCREASINGLY
WARM/MOIST AIRMASS AS A 30KT WESTERLY LLJ ADVECTS HIGHER THETAE
AIR IN FROM MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS 850MB THETAE AXIS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND REACH EASTERN UPPER BETWEEN 21-00Z AND THEN SWEEP
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BETWEEN 00-06Z. SEVERE POSSIBILITIES
CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL. ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE...WIND FIELDS ARE
IMPRESSIVE WITH A 30-40KT LLJ...40-50KT AT 700MB...AND 60-70KTS AT
500MB WHICH EQUATES TO 50-60KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AND DECENT
FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT. ON THE OTHERHAND...BEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF 105KT JET STREAK LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OVER
ONTARIO. BUT THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FOR WHICH THE FRONT CAN TAP INTO. SURFACE
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE 850MB THETAE GRADIENT STILL RESIDING JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
WITH THE JUICIER AIRMASS ARRIVING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...IF
PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER COULD REACH T/TD OF 72/55...ABOUT 500
J/KG OF ML CAPE COULD BE REALIZED. ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN...SKINNY
ELEVATED INSTABILITY BETWEEN 400-700 J/KG WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION SUSTAINING ITSELF THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON THE WIND THREAT.

MPC

REST OF THE FORECAST (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY IN OVER THE
WEEKEND BUT THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK WILL TURN VERY WARM AND ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
TEND TO MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING SOME
RELIEF.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH. MEAN
1000-500 MB RH BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT THURSDAY DROPS TO 30 TO 40
PERCENT ON FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. 850
MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN PLUS 8 AND 10 C BOTH DAYS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (HIGHEST
SOUTHERN ZONES). COMFORTABLY COOL AT NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE
HANDLING OF A CUTOFF LOW UNDER THE RIDGE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS THE ONE FEATURE THAT HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO MESS UP THE ONGOING FORECAST...OTHERWISE A PLEASANT
WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED WITH CONTINUED LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BLOSSOM TO BETWEEN PLUS 13 AND 15 C SATURDAY THEN TO
BETWEEN PLUS 14 AND 16 C SUNDAY. THEREFORE HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WITH A MORE MOIST
SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW LEADING TO HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS. AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO BETWEEN PLUS 18 AND 20 C HIGHS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 80 NORTH AND AROUND 90 SOUTH. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY LEADING TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.
TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS OBVIOUSLY IN QUESTION BUT WILL CONFINE CHANCE
POPS TO EASTERN/SOUTHERN ZONES TO LINE UP WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
ANY COOL AIR PUSH SHOULD BE MINIMIZED AS A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS SHOWN
TO DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 80S FAR SOUTH.

SULLIVAN

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1122 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-211000-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1122 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A
FRANKFORT TO OSCODA LINE.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS WEST OF US-131...HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS PLEASE RELAY ANY DAMAGE REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
807 PM EDT WED JUN 20 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             BENZONIA                44.62N 86.10W
06/20/2007  E1.00 INCH       BENZIE             MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAILSTONES.

&&

JPB