Alert archive / Michigan / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2007

Lake Effect Snow Warning 7, NWS Gaylord, MI

February 1, 20078 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this lake effect snow warning at Feb 1, 2007, 4:21 AM EST for 8 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 35 hr. 12 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 1, 2007, 4:21 AM EST (09:21 UTC)
Expired
Feb 2, 2007, 3:44 PM EST
In force
35 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

Counties Antrim County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Otsego County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 1, 6:00 AM ESTSNOW 41 W Interlochen, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 6AM. SNOWDEPTH 14 IN.
Feb 1, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 3.54 E Honor, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 7AM. SNOWDEPTH 16 IN.
Feb 1, 7:00 AM ESTSNOW 63 W Suttons Bay, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.
Feb 1, 11:00 AM ESTSNOW 35 W Elmira, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 11 AM.
Feb 1, 11:00 AM ESTSNOW 4Lake Ann, MI7 HR TOTAL THRU 11 AM. SNOWDEPTH 18 IN.
Feb 1, 11:00 AM ESTSNOW 4Manistee, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 11 AM.
Feb 1, 11:00 AM ESTSNOW 77 Nw Cheboygan, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 11 AM.
Feb 1, 11:00 AM ESTSNOW 11Cross Village, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 11 AM. COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTS AREAS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN SHORELINE LOCATIONS ACROSS CHARLEVOIX...EMMET AND CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES.
Feb 1, 1:00 PM ESTSNOW 8.2Wellston, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 1 PM.
Feb 1, 9:11 PM ESTSNOW 5.73 S Suttons Bay, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 9 PM. SNOWDEPTH 12 IN.
Feb 2, 2:45 PM ESTSNOW 2Manistee, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 2 PM.
Feb 2, 2:45 PM ESTSNOW 4Suttons Bay, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 2 PM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 220 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2007-02-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2007-02-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 220 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1061 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
220 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
239 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS43 KAPX 010921
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
421 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...MORE BOUTS OF SNOW TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF SAULT STE MARIE WAS CONTRIBUTING
TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING. THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHERN
LEELANAU COUNTY TO NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF CHARLEVOIX AND PETOSKEY. 

ANOTHER...STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM WEST ON FRIDAY. WITH
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AGAIN...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COAST WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW.

MIZ015-012300-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070201T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
421 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR ST IGNACE.

HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE STRAITS REGION AND EASTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY ON FRIDAY. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MIZ019-020-012300-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070201T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0007.070201T0921Z-070201T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T1200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT
421 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ACROSS NORTHERN LEELANAU AND WESTERN CHARLEVOIX
COUNTIES. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL
APPROACH 6 INCHES...ON TOP OF THE SNOW THAT FELL DURING THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER...SIMILAR SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS EXTREMELY COLD AIR
INVADES. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD REACH
10 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MIZ016-017-012300-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070201T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.W.0007.070201T0921Z-070201T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN
421 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THE SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ACROSS EMMET AND NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL APPROACH 6
INCHES...ON TOP OF THE SNOW THAT FELL DURING THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER...SIMILAR SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON FRIDAY COULD
REACH 8 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MIZ025-031-011600-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070201T1600Z/
BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
421 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING AND MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COASTLINE. 

ANOTHER...STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. THIS
COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON FRIDAY COULD REACH 8 INCHES.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MIZ021-011600-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T1200Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-070201T1600Z/
ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MANCELONA
421 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. A SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION TODAY...MAINLY THIS MORNING AND WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.

ANOTHER...STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS EXTREMELY
COLD AIR INVADES. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD
REACH 10 INCHES.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

JZ
6 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 011752
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1252 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...MORE BOUTS OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF SAULT STE MARIE WAS CONTRIBUTING
TO LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHERN
LEELANAU COUNTY TO NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF CHARLEVOIX AND PETOSKEY.

ANOTHER...STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM WEST ON FRIDAY. WITH
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE AGAIN...LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN COAST WILL AGAIN BE FAVORED FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW.

MIZ019-020-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070201T2300Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T1200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT
1252 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN LEELANAU AND WESTERN CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE AROUND 6 INCHES...ON TOP OF THE SNOW
THAT FELL DURING THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER...SIMILAR SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS EXTREMELY COLD AIR
INVADES. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD REACH
10 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MIZ016-017-012300-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070201T2300Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN
1252 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EMMET AND NORTHERN CHEBOYGAN COUNTIES. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE AROUND 8 INCHES...ON TOP OF THE SNOW
THAT FELL DURING THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER...SIMILAR SNOW EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON FRIDAY
COULD REACH 8 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MIZ025-031-012100-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SN.Y.0005.070201T1752Z-070201T2100Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
1252 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. A
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION TODAY...MAINLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN COASTLINE.

ANOTHER...STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.
THIS COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW...AGAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS ON FRIDAY COULD REACH 8 INCHES.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MIZ021-012100-
/O.NEW.KAPX.SN.Y.0005.070201T1752Z-070201T2100Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T1200Z/
ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MANCELONA
1252 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. A
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR GRAND TRAVERSE
BAY AND IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF ANTRIM COUNTY.

ANOTHER...STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS EXTREMELY
COLD AIR INVADES. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
COULD REACH 10 INCHES.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MIZ015-020800-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
1252 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR ST IGNACE.

HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE STRAITS REGION AND EASTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY ON FRIDAY. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MR
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 012059
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
359 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...MORE BOUTS OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY...

.COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CARRY
THESE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE
COUNTIES AND AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC TONIGHT. 

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY. WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE...LOCATIONS NEAR THE
LAKE MICHIGAN COAST AND SOUTH OF THE STRAITS WILL AGAIN BE
FAVORED FOR HEAVY SNOW.

MIZ025-031-021100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SN.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070201T2100Z/
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T0000Z/
BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...MANISTEE
359 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY. THE SNOW
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY...PROLONGING
AND INTENSIFYING HEAVY SNOWFALL. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY WILL REACH
8 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ021-021100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SN.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070201T2100Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070203T0000Z-070203T1200Z/
ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MANCELONA
359 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY...PROLONGING
AND INTENSIFYING HEAVY SNOWFALL. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY WILL REACH
8 INCHES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
PRODUCTION. MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MIZ016-017-021100-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T0000Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN
359 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY...PROLONGING
AND INTENSIFYING HEAVY SNOWFALL. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY WILL REACH
8 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ019-020-021100-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070203T0000Z-070203T1200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT
359 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

A STRONG SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY...PROLONGING
AND INTENSIFYING HEAVY SNOWFALL. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY WILL REACH
8 INCHES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE OVERALL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
PRODUCTION. MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MIZ015-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
359 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE NEAR ST IGNACE.

HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE STRAITS REGION AND EASTERN
MACKINAC COUNTY ON FRIDAY. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

MR
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 020329
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1029 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...SNOW TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TOMORROW MORNING...

.COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CARRY THESE SNOW SHOWERS
INLAND ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES AND AREAS
BORDERING FAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON. 

BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE HEAVIER
SNOWS WILL IMPACT MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 IN
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.


MIZ019>021-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070203T0000Z-070203T1200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
1029 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. A PERIOD OF
BRISK WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WHICH
MAY FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER
PRODUCTION FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.
THEREFORE...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. 

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.


$$

MIZ016-017-025-031-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T0000Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...FRANKFORT...
MANISTEE
1029 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
FRIDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. A PERIOD OF
BRISK WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WHICH
MAY FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ015-021100-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
1029 PM EST THU FEB 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. 

ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED NEAR ST IGNACE AND CEDARVILLE...WHERE
UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. 

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE HEAVIER SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST...MAINLY
FROM BREVORT EASTWARD. LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

SD
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 020904
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
404 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO COME...

.LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AS A STRONG UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD
AGAIN FOCUS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...FROM MANISTEE TO
THE MACKINAC BRIDGE. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE ALSO
EXPECTED IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO FAR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...AND ESPECIALLY EMMET COUNTY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS MANISTEE AND
CADILLAC.

MIZ022-026-022300-
/O.EXB.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T1200Z/
OTSEGO-GRAND TRAVERSE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAYLORD...TRAVERSE CITY
404 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS BY DAWN
SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 8 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ019>021-022300-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070203T0000Z-070203T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T1200Z/
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA
404 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING ONWARD...WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
ACCUMULATIONS BY DAWN SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ016-017-025-031-022300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-BENZIE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...FRANKFORT...
MANISTEE
404 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM MID
MORNING ONWARD...WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
ACCUMULATIONS BY DAWN SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR LITTLE TRAVERSE BAY AND IN
THE REST OF EMMET COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ015-022300-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0003.070202T1200Z-070203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0009.070202T0904Z-070203T0000Z/
MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST. IGNACE
404 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY FROM ST IGNACE EASTWARD...AS WELL AS IN THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF MACKINAC COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ027-032-022300-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0009.070202T0904Z-070203T0000Z/
KALKASKA-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KALKASKA...CADILLAC
404 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP BY MIDDAY. ACCUMULATIONS
BY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST KALKASKA AND WEXFORD COUNTIES...INCLUDING
SHERMAN AND RAPID CITY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ008-022300-
/O.NEW.KAPX.LE.Y.0009.070202T0904Z-070203T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAULT STE. MARIE
404 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY FROM I-75 WESTWARD...AS WELL AS NEAR DE TOUR VILLAGE
AND DRUMMOND ISLAND.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

JZ
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 021613
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1113 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...STILL PLENTY OF SNOW TO COME...

.LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN UPPER
AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOULD AGAIN FOCUS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE...FROM
MANISTEE TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THIS FRONT...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
ESPECIALLY EMMET COUNTY. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS MANISTEE AND CADILLAC.

MIZ016-017-019>022-025-026-031-030615-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T1200Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
MANISTEE
1113 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS AREA FROM PELLSTON TO CHARLEVOIX...WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. ACCUMULATIONS BY DAWN
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ027-032-030000-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-070203T0000Z/
KALKASKA-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KALKASKA...CADILLAC
1113 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KALKASKA AND
WEXFORD COUNTIES. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN NORTHWEST KALKASKA AND
WEXFORD COUNTIES...INCLUDING SHERMAN AND RAPID CITY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MIZ008-015-030000-
/O.CON.KAPX.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-070203T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
1113 AM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY FROM ST IGNACE EASTWARD...AS WELL AS IN THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF MACKINAC COUNTY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MEANS LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS FORECAST
THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS. SLOW DOWN AND
EXERCISE CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

$$

MR
000 
WWUS43 KAPX 022044
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...MORE SNOW...COLD AND WIND...

.ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS...WITH LIGHTER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACT PLACES FURTHER INLAND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...AND WILL COMBINE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.


MIZ016-017-019>022-025-026-031-031045-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-070203T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0001.070202T2044Z-070204T0000Z/
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-MANISTEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...
NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...
MANISTEE
344 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SNOW SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE STRAITS AREA FROM PELLSTON TO CHARLEVOIX... WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BY SATURDAY EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW...AND WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TO DROP WIND
CHILLS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS.

$$

MIZ027-032-031045-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-070203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0003.070202T2044Z-070204T0000Z/
KALKASKA-WEXFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KALKASKA...CADILLAC
344 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KALKASKA AND WEXFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN NORTHWEST KALKASKA AND WEXFORD COUNTIES...INCLUDING SHERMAN AND
RAPID CITY. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...AND WILL COMBINE WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MIZ008-015-031045-
/O.CAN.KAPX.LE.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-070203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0003.070202T2044Z-070204T0000Z/
CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE
344 PM EST FRI FEB 2 2007

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH SATURDAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...AND WILL COMBINE
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. SLOW DOWN AND
GIVE YOURSELF PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.

$$

MR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Feb 1, 3:57 AM EST, 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 1, 3:57 AM EST, 24 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
357 AM EST THU FEB 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF WEATHER COMING FAST AND FURIOUS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FIRST UP...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU NOW...AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN SUPERIOR...WAS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING A SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED EVENT. 2ND...SYNOPTIC FORCING
DEPARTS EARLY ON TODAY...BUT WSW/SW FLOW WILL NOT BE ALTERED...WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW (LES) INTO
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. 3RD...SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND POLAR
VORTEX WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWINGS THRU MI FRIDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER SW FLOW LAKE ENHANCED EVENT ON FRIDAY...
TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY LES AS ARCTIC FRONT GOES THRU (4TH). AND
5TH...THE VERY COLD AIR AND ASSOCIATED WIND CHILL/LES CONCERNS
SATURDAY ONWARD.

SNOW AND TEMPS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS THRU THE FORECAST.

MODELS...GFS CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT AND HAS MORE SUPPORT
FROM THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE...FEATURING A FASTER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED WAVE ON FRIDAY...AND A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR.
IT REMAINS STRONGLY FAVORED.

TODAY...BACK EDGE OF THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP IS ALREADY EDGING INTO THE
SW ZONES. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING ENDING...A DOMINANT
BAND HAS DEVELOPED...AND PERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS FROM NORTHPORT TO
CVX TO PETOSKEY AND WESTERN CHEBOYGAN. ALREADY HAVE A REPORT OF 4-6
INCHES JUST SOUTH OF CVX. EVEN WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT
GRAZING US TO THE SOUTH...AM SURPRISED NOT TO SEE MORE SNOW INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER MI. INCREASING ICE COVER AT THE
NORTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE MAY BE A PLAYER HERE.

THE WORST SHOULD SOON BE DONE. THERE IS A SECONDARY AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW IS SOUTHERN WI...MORE SHOWERY-LOOKING SNOW IN AREAS OF SHARP
1000-850MB CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND DO EXPECT TOO MUCH OF A FLARE-UP WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
LAKE MI. BY THEN...WE ARE SEEING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
EARLY MORNING SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...DELTA T/S REMAIN IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO NEAR 20...WITH OK MID-LEVEL MOISTURE (850-700MB RH AROUND
60 PERCENT...A LITTLE MORE MOIST IN THE AM AND DRIER IN THE PM). THE
WSW TO BORDERLINE W FETCH REMAINS LARGELY UNALTERED. SO WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED LES IN THE LAKE MI COASTAL COUNTIES OF NW LOWER MI. WITH A
BIT LESS SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...EASTERN UPPER WILL BE
LESS IN THE MIX...ESPECIALLY GIVEN INCREASING ICE COVER FROM BEAVER
ISLAND NORTH. WILL REDUCE POPS/SNOW A BIT THERE...EXCEPT IN THE
IMMEDIATE STRAITS AREA AND EAST OF CEDARVILLE.

GIVEN ONGOING DOMINANT BAND AND ONE HIGH-END ADVISORY REPORT...TIME
TO CHANGE SOME HEADLINES. GOOD NEWS...WILL CANCEL MACKINAC CO
ADVISORY. BAD NEWS...WILL UPGRADE LEELANAU/CVX/EMMET/CHEBOYGAN TO
WARNINGS...WHICH WILL RIDE THRU THE DAY. OTHER ADVISORIES LEFT
UNTOUCHED. LOCAL 4-6 ADDITIONAL IN THE WARNING COUNTIES...1-2 IN THE
ADVISORIES...MAINLY IN THE AM HOURS.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID 20S (AND ENJOY THAT WHILE IT
LASTS).

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW THAT GETS LEFT BEHIND OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
SUPERIOR OR EASTERN UPPER MI WILL STAY THERE...AND START TO DEEPEN
VERY LATE AS IT FEELS THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE. HOWEVER...THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD WILL REMAIN LARGELY UPSTREAM...PERHAPS
MAKING IT TO WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK. SO DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SUPPORT TO ONGOING SW FLOW LES. THERMAL
FIELDS ARE ALSO QUITE STABLE...WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -16C AND THUS
DELTA T/S PUSHING 20 OVER OPEN WATER. THE MAIN COMPLICATING FACTOR
IS THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WOULD ALLOW LAND BREEZES
AND OTHER SMALL-SCALE FEATURES TO TAKE OVER. BY OVERNIGHT...WOULD
EXPECT BANDS TO MORPH INTO A MID-LAKE CONVERGENCE BAND AND/OR A
VORTICE OR TWO (OR MORE)...WITH LESS CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GETTING
INLAND. WILL REDUCE SNOW SHOWERS COVERAGE A BIT OVERNIGHT...KEEPING
LIKELY/NUMEROUS WORDING ONLY VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST (WHERE 1-2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE NIGHT...LESS INLAND). OTHERWISE...
PLACES SOUTH OF GLR AND AWAY FROM LAKE MI MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER...ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET RATHER CHILLY. AM NOT WILLING TO
GO AS COLD AS GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SINGLE
DIGIT READINGS IN THE COLDER INLAND LOCALES.

FRIDAY...WE WILL START THE MORNING IN THE SAME RELATIVELY QUIET
PATTERN...WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES DOMINATING AND MOST SNOW SHOWERS
REMAINING OVER THE LAKE IN VERY WEAK WSW FLOW. BUT THAT WILL CHANGE
VERY QUICKLY. FORCING FOR ASCENT REALLY TAKES OFF OVER LAKE MI AND
ENVIRONS BY MIDDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. NO
CHANGES TO THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL SETUP DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS
ALOFT CRATER (ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON)...ALLOWING INVERSION
HEIGHTS TO SOAR FROM 4K FT EARLY TO 10K FT LATE. SO...AFTER A FAIRLY
QUIET START...EXPECT WSW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BE REALLY CRANKING
BY MIDDAY. AGAIN...THIS PART OF THE EVENT WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK...AS
THE PASSING ARCTIC FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN
HURON WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NW DURING THE PM. STILL...THE FRIDAY
EVENT IS DISTINGUISHED FROM THE CURRENT ONE BY HAVING MUCH MORE
FORCING AVAILABLE.

THUS...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FRIDAY...COVERING THE
EXACT SAME COUNTIES NOW UNDER AN ADVISORY. GAVE SOME THOUGHT TO
LEAVING MACKINAC OUT...GIVEN CONCERNS WITH UPSTREAM ICE COVER AND
LACK OF SNOW IN THE CURRENT EVENT. BUT THERE/S ALSO THE POSSIBILITY
OF THAT JUST INDICATING THE DYNAMICS WERE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY...AS
THE MODELS SUGGESTED. SO WILL PLAY IT SAFE AND INCLUDE EASTERN
MACKINAC. WILL KEEP THE SNOW RANGE BROAD...5-9 INCHES IN THE WATCH
COUNTIES...QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO THE EAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...UNFORTUNATELY...ONLY TIME FOR A CURSORY LOOK
AT THE REST OF FORECAST. NOT TO WORRY THOUGH...IT STILL LOOKS BAD.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETAIN SHARP CYCLONIC CURVATURE AS THE LAKE
AGGREGATE TROF REMAINS AND INTERACTS WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROF. THUS IT GETS VERY DIFFICULT TO ISOLATE A FLOW DIRECTION...AND
FETCHES COULD CHANGE DRASTICALLY AS THE TROF WOBBLES AND DRIFTS. AT
THIS POINT...EASTERN SUPERIOR AND EASTERN UPPER LOOK TO REMAIN
MAINLY NORTH OF THE TROF...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OFFERING LIMITED
SUPPORT FROM SUPERIOR. BETTER SNOW CONDITIONS WILL BE IN NW
LOWER...WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROF.
WITH WNW FLOW ADVERTISED FOR THE BULK OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MI FROM BOTH THE GFS AND NAM...WILL TRY TO BANK ON THAT MUCH.
THERE IS STILL A WINDOW FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT WITH THIS FETCH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TEMPS GET TOO COLD FOR SNOWFLAKE GROWTH.

THUS...OUT OF THE ORIGINAL FRIDAY WATCH...WILL BREAK OUT CVX/ANTRIM/
LEELANAU...AND RUN THE WATCH FOR THEM THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WILL ADVERTISE A LOT OF SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS A
TROWAL-LIKE FEATURE IN THE GFS FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD OFFER MORE
FAVORABLE THERMAL FIELDS FOR SNOW. JUST DON/T HAVE TIME TO ANALYZE
IT PROPERLY THIS MORNING. OH...AND OF COURSE IT WILL BE COLD...WITH
EARLY DAY HIGHS 10-15 AND FALLING TEMPS IN THE PM.

REST OF THE FORECAST...COLD. DEEP MEAN UPPER TROF WILL KEEP US IN
ARCTIC AIR THRU TUESDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. STILL LOOKS LIKE
TEMPS MODERATE LATE NEXT WEEK.

ZOLTOWSKI

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
       LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...TODAY...MIZ016-017-019-020
       SNOW ADVISORY...THIS MORNING...MIZ021-025-031
       WINTER STORM WATCH...FRIDAY...MIZ015>017-025-031
       WINTER STORM WATCH...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MIZ019>021.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 31, 10:15 PM EST, 6 hours 6 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

LHZ345>349-361-362-LMZ323-341-342-344-345-363-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-
015>036-041-042-011100-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF CENTRAL LAKE HURON-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-MANISTEE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN-WHITEFISH BAY-
ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-
CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-
GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-
MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC-
1015 PM EST WED JAN 31 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON...LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE SUPERIOR...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND WITHIN
THE STRAITS AREA. SEE ONGOING ADVISORIES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NEAR THE SHORELINE OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND WITHIN THE STRAITS AREA. SEE ONGOING ADVISORIES
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY...TURNING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT
REGIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START THIS WEEKEND
AND EXTEND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS COULD
REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...PLEASE PASS ON SNOWFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AJS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 1, 1:19 AM EST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
119 AM EST THU FEB 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     SNOW             LAKE ANN                44.73N 85.84W
02/01/2007  M2.5 INCH        BENZIE             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 HR TOTAL THRU 1 AM. SNOWDEPTH 14 IN.

&&

SROZANSK
Local storm report, Feb 1, 3:42 AM EST, 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 AM EST THU FEB 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 AM     SNOW             CHARLEVOIX              45.32N 85.26W
02/01/2007  M3.0 INCH        CHARLEVOIX         MI   PUBLIC

            12 HR TOTAL THRU 330 AM.

0330 AM     SNOW             PETOSKEY                45.38N 84.96W
02/01/2007  M3.0 INCH        EMMET              MI   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            12 HR TOTAL THRU 330 AM.

0330 AM     SNOW             5 E CHARLEVOIX          45.32N 85.16W
02/01/2007  E5.0 INCH        CHARLEVOIX         MI   PUBLIC

            12 HR TOTAL THRU 330 AM.

&&

SROZANSK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 1, 4:21 AM ESTWinter Storm WatchAPXAntrim, Benzie, Cheboygan, Emmet, Leelanau, Manistee24 hr
Feb 1, 12:52 PM ESTSnow AdvisoryAPXAntrim, Benzie, Manistee3 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Michigan, 2007Every lake effect snow warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.