Flood Watch 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...COLD PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE COMING WEEKEND...
WITH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERN CANADA
POLAR VORTEX. THIS FEATURE INITIALLY WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...THEN RE-ORGANIZES FOR THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
DROPS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK ABOVE 70N. STILL
SOME INDICATIONS THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AWAY FROM THE DEEP FREEZE. SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ONE IS DEPARTING THE WESTERN LAKES THIS
MORNING...WITH ANOTHER FORECAST TO ARRIVE TONIGHT AND THEN ANOTHER
WAVE FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS FOR LATER THURSDAY.  THE EFFECTS OF
THESE SYSTEMS ACTING IN CONCERT WITH THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM.

TODAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A COUPLE FEATURES
OF INTEREST. SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WAS PRETTY MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTHEAST
PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...TAIL END OF THIS WAVE SWEEPING ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FEATURE HAS SOME MOISTURE WITH IT...
AND IR/FOG IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS WAVE HAVING POSITIVE FEEDBACK ON
LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BANDS. LARGE AREA OF MID CLOUD IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ALSO DROPPING SOUTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. MONTREAL RIVER RADAR SHOWING ONE PROMINENT SNOW BAND
CLIPPING WHITEFISH POINT AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOO
WHERE MODERATE/OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE LATE
EVENING. WEAKER LES BANDS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER NORTH OF
M-72...WITH CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER INLAND ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER. 00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHT JUST BELOW
800MB WITH AN 850MB TEMPERATURE OF -24C. FORECAST ISSUES FOR TODAY
AGAIN WILL FOCUS ON EVOLUTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR...INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP A LITTLE IN SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH (TOWARD 850MB)...BUT EXPECT
ARRIVAL OF UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER TO OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT. IR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS WINDS MAY VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL RH SHOULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND. BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF WHITEFISH BAY...AND DEPENDING ON PERSISTENCE OF BANDS
THINK ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW IS QUITE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN...LES PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN RATHER UNFAVORABLE
THROUGH THE DAY. INVERSION HEIGHTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
850-900MB RANGE LATER THIS MORNING...UPSTREAM MOISTURE IMPACTING
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. CONTINUED
SHORT WESTERLY FETCH AND 850-700MB RH BELOW 50 PERCENT SHOULD
RESULT IN A NICE PERSISTENCE ACCUMULATION FORECAST GIVEN WHAT HAS
OCCURRED THE PAST TWO DAYS (TWO INCHES OR LESS NORTH OF M-72).

WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING ARE LOWEST ALONG M-55 CORRIDOR FROM
CAD EASTWARD WHERE CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
-25F. WIND SPEEDS ARE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING GENERALLY SOUTH OF A CAD-APN LINE.

TONIGHT...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SERIES DROPS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL WITH THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER...WHICH BY ITSELF LIKELY WOULDNT AMOUNT TO
MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH. BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AND RISING
INVERSION HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL IMPROVE
LES POTENTIAL. OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING THE
BANDS AROUND A BIT...BUT WITH THE INVERSION AGAIN RISING ABOVE
800MB AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
3-5+ INCHES ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY. AT THIS POINT WILL
EXTEND THE CURRENT CHIPPEWA COUNTY ADVISORY (SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE
AT 10Z) OUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR LAKE MICHIGAN
LES...EXPECT BANDS TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AS CBL DEPTH
INCREASES ALONG WITH ARRIVAL OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. FLOW MAY
ALSO VEER SUFFICIENTLY NORTHWEST TO ALLOW FOR AN INCREASED
EFFECTIVE FETCH WITH TRAJECTORIES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. CAN ENVISION
AN ADVISORY TYPE (3-5 INCH) EVENT ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER (AREAS
FAVORED BY 310-320 FLOW)...BUT WONT TRY TO PIN DOWN DETAILS JUST
YET AS THERE ARE SOME GUIDANCE ISSUES TO HAMMER OUT (NAM NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC WITH THE MOISTURE UNTIL LATE...AND KEEPS WINDS MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST). FOR NOW MAX ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST LOWER
SNOWBELT OF UP TO 4 INCHES SHOULD SUFFICE...TAPERING TO AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.

THURSDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS EARLY...THEN ANOTHER ONE DROPS
IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SYNOPTIC/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL. INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE
BOUNCING UP AND DOWN DURING THE DAY BETWEEN FEATURES...BUT ANOTHER
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORED AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY NIGHTS SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE...SHORT WAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE. NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS THOUGH 850MB TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT
BALMY COMPARED TO THE RECENT PAST (PERHAPS ABOVE -15C). SO
SOMETHING OF A LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND WILL
CONFINE CHANCE POPS TO THE TYPICAL SNOWBELT AREAS AND ATTEMPT A
DRY FORECAST FARTHER INLAND. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ENERGY DIVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY...WHICH LOOKS TO SEND ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH
WHAT SHOULD BE ONE LAST SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. SO SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
FOLLOWED BY RENEWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY...AND
HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS AND PERHAPS SOME SINGLE DIGIT READINGS.
WILL TREND SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHS AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS DOWN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. COLD AIR HANGS ON THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE (SOME MODERATION IN OPERATIONAL
GFS) AS WELL AS EVOLUTION OF WIND FIELDS. WILL KEEP THE IDEA OF
CONFINING SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR SUNDAY TO THE SNOWBELT AREAS FOR
THE TIME BEING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...
	THROUGH TONIGHT...MIZ008.
 WIND CHILL ADVISORY...UNTIL 11 AM...MIZ029-030-032>036-041-042.
 GALE WARNING...THROUGH TONIGHT...LHZ347.

&&

JPB

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