Snow Advisory 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
214 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS. CIGS WILL LOWER
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE WEST SIDE OF RETREATING SURFACE HIGH.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST CWA AS
EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND FREEZING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS SNOW DEVELOPS. POINT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SLEET MIXED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
ZONES. WILL LEAVE AS ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME. HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WARNING BEGINNING AT 18Z FRIDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT THINK THAT THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES WILL REACH
WSW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...DO THINK THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS
LIKELY...SO A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT STARTING 00Z SATURDAY. THE
HEAVIER SNOW WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ZONES EARLIER...BUT SHOULD
QUICKLY SPREAD TO THE NORTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INCREASED
POPS ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER UKMET SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER- LOW.
THIS WILL DELAY THE DRYING DEPICTED BY THE GFS...KEEPING FAIRLY HIGH
POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT /WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN
THE EASTERN ZONES BY THIS TIME/.

DEPARTING UPPER-LOW WILL BRINGING A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY AS SNOW PACK WILL
BE A BIG WILD-CARD. RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE AREA BEGINS TO DRY OUT. DRY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM DOES NOT LOOK AS SIGNIFICANT
AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING BY FUTURE SHIFTS AS THE STORM
TRACK AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE BECOME MORE CLEAR. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOW- LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING A MODEST WARM-UP /STILL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS/ AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PACKAGE. MEX
VALUES LOOK TO WARM FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AND HAVE UNDERCUT BY
SEVERAL DEGREES.

JOHNSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                22  31  22  29  19 /  10  60  80  60  40
BEAVER OK                  17  36  20  32  22 /   0  20  50  60  50
BOISE CITY OK              15  35  19  31  18 /   0  30  60  50  30
BORGER TX                  23  35  23  32  23 /   5  40  70  60  40
BOYS RANCH TX              20  33  22  31  20 /  10  50  80  60  40
CANYON TX                  21  30  23  29  19 /  20  60  80  70  40
CLARENDON TX               23  31  23  30  22 /  10  60  80  70  50
DALHART TX                 17  34  19  31  16 /   5  40  70  50  30
GUYMON OK                  18  36  22  32  21 /   0  20  50  50  40
HEREFORD TX                20  29  21  30  19 /  20  70  90  60  40
LIPSCOMB TX                19  36  21  32  23 /   0  30  50  70  50
PAMPA TX                   21  34  22  31  22 /   5  40  70  70  50
SHAMROCK TX                23  33  23  31  26 /  10  50  70  80  60
WELLINGTON TX              25  32  24  31  25 /  10  60  80  80  60

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...
     ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...SHERMAN.

OK...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

24/02

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-191200-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS UPCOMING
STORM IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRELIMINARY FORECASTS SUGGEST 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL...
AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...AS WELL AS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...LESS THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES ARE HIGHLY ENCOURAGED TO MAKE THE
NECESSARY PREPARATIONS FOR ANOTHER WINTER STORM EVENT BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ANDRADE