Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Amarillo, TX

000 
WWUS54 KAMA 130028
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
728 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007

TXC011-130045-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-070413T0045Z/
ARMSTRONG TX-
728 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARMSTRONG COUNTY...

AT 723 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARMSTRONG COUNTY...OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF
CLAUDE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3476 10146 3475 10132 3476 10115 3500 10112
      3501 10125 3495 10139

$$

JJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
445 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING FORECAST TODAY. APPROACHING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF SPREADING
LIFT OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHERE CONVERGENCE IS FOSTERING
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DESPITE MEAGER MOISTURE. 40S
DEWPOINTS ARE TRYING TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS...AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EAST
AND MAINTAIN SFC LOW. LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...AIDING FURTHER IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CURRENT REASONING IS
THAT LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE ARRIVES...RESULTING IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL
FOR DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY COULD START LATE...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. PERHAPS A RELATIVE LULL LATE
TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROF EXITS.

AT THE RISK OF PLAGIARIZING A COLLEAGUE...TOMORROW LOOKS TO INCLUDE A
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE SYSTEM TRENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH...COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO INVADE THE NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
EVEN GIVEN THE ENTRANCE OF THE COLD AIR...THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO RACE THROUGH...OWING TO CONTINUED STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND SURFACE
REFLECTION. THEREFORE...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHILE THE FRONT MEANDERS SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. SFC LOW WILL BEGIN THE DAY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
AND PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. AS DRY
SLOT ERODES HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHERE
DECENT MOISTURE BECOMES WRAPPED AROUND SFC LOW...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WHEN COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA...THUS INCREASING INSTABILITY
DESPITE SURPRISINGLY COOL TEMPERATURES. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
AREA FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT CANNOT ARGUE WITH CURRENT POSITIONING
OF SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE DAY AND EVENING TOMORROW
AS DIURNAL TREND IS BROKEN BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. HAVE ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES...WHERE 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS A
RESULT OF STRONG WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION. SYSTEM WILL EXIT
SATURDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSOLATION IN THE NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...BUT ALLOWING A START AT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
ELSEWHERE...OFFSET ONLY BY CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN.
UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ENABLE WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND CLOSES OFF...
FOLLOWING MUCH THE SAME TREND AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM. GFS STILL LOOKS
TO BE LIFTING THE SYSTEM OUT TOO FAR NORTH AND QUICKLY...SO HAVE
TEMPORALLY ADJUSTED THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE AND POPS BY A FEW
HOURS TO COMPENSATE. WITH A TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH...POPS
BECOME A BIT LIKELIER...AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

KRAMAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                46  53  31  53  33 /  80  60  30   5   0
BEAVER OK                  40  41  30  51  30 /  90  90  60  10   0
BOISE CITY OK              35  36  26  54  31 /  90  90  50   5   0
BORGER TX                  45  45  30  55  37 /  80  70  30   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              46  46  29  55  33 /  80  70  30   5   0
CANYON TX                  47  53  31  56  31 /  80  60  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               51  58  35  55  35 /  90  70  30   5   0
DALHART TX                 39  40  27  55  30 /  90  80  30   5   0
GUYMON OK                  38  38  29  54  30 /  90  90  60  10   0
HEREFORD TX                46  55  31  56  32 /  80  60  20   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                46  46  34  51  31 /  90  80  60  10   0
PAMPA TX                   47  51  31  53  36 /  90  60  40  10   0
SHAMROCK TX                51  55  36  55  35 /  90  70  40  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              53  58  37  57  36 /  90  70  40  10   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...OCHILTREE...
     SHERMAN.

OK...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
531 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-131100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
531 PM CDT THU APR 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR MOST
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...

THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS OCHILTREE AND HANSFORD COUNTIES
ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA. ALSO...CAUTION IS ADVISED ON AREA LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT DUE TO THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL
SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE TO FIVE INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEATHER OBSERVERS SHOULD PREPARE TO CALL
IN THEIR SNOW REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO.

WYNNE