Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
720 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED TO EXTEND POPS FARTHER TO THE
EAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE EXTREME EASTERN ZONES. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
NOT MUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER 6Z. WX TYPE WAS ALSO CHANGED TO
AREAL QUALIFIERS.  NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007/

AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS NEAR AMA AT THIS TIME...BUT TSTMS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT DHT.  GUY MAY HAVE TSTMS OCCUR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  ALL
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  SLY WINDS TNGT
WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP...WITH MVFR OR IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT
AMA AND DHT.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATE MRNG THRU AFTN ON
THU...WITH CU DEVELOPING DURING LATE AFTN.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROF
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SCT TSRA TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC TROF IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHERE MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY INVADE THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT...BUT STRONGER CAPPING IN EASTERN ZONES SHOULD
PRECLUDE STORMS REACHING FOR EASTERN AREAS. AS SUCH...HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WESTERN THIRD FOR TONIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A REPEAT
PERFORMANCE IN THE WESTERN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS THESE
LOCATIONS...BUT NOT TO MENTIONABLE VALUES.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY AS RIDGE
TRANSLATES EAST. DURING THIS TRANSITION...SHORTWAVE TROF ON FRIDAY
COULD AID IN STORM FORMATION ALONG THE SFC TROF IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES...WITH STORMS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTERN ZONES FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT OVER TRACK OF UPPER
SYSTEM MOVING OVER EASTERN COLORADO...BUT GFS ENSEMBLE STILL
EXHIBITS WIDE SPECTRUM OF PATHS...WITH SEVERAL RUNS TAKING THE LOW A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. DESPITE THIS UNCERTAINTY...
ENOUGH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRAZE THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING TO
ALLOW FOR STORMS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT TRIMMED THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AS SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT OUT.

FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH DRY FORECAST
THEREAFTER AS MOISTURE ERODED AMPLY BY THE FRONT.

MAXIMA FOLLOWED MEXMOS IN MOST PERIODS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SATURDAY...WHERE VALUES WERE LOWERED BY A COUPLE DEGREES AS HEIGHTS
FALL AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM...AND WERE INCREASED ON SUNDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE FRONT WILL NOT HAVE PENETRATED BY
AFTERNOON. MINIMA WERE LOWERED IN THE USUAL COOL SPOTS...BUT
GENERALLY FOLLOWED MEXMOS.

FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS WILL BE QUITE AMPLE ON SATURDAY AS SFC TROF DEEPENS IN RESPONSE
TO APPROACHING MAIN UPPER LOW. HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG WARNING...BUT MAY DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD AS TIME NEARS.

KRAMAR

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

24/03

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
238 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-111100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
238 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...BUT THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LEVELS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY COULD ALSO RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GOEHRING

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