Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
641 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

.AVIATION...
STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES
WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE GUYMON AND AMARILLO TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER THE DALHART TAF SITE MAY STILL SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
THE CONVECTION...WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE STORMS.
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BRIEFLY RESULTING IN IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007/

DISCUSSION...
GIVEN RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP PERSISTENT MOISTURE...
IT APPEARS DAYTIME HEATING WILL RELEASE A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC TROF OR PSEUDO DRYLINE STRUCTURE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS WELL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO SCT COVERAGE FOR THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE REDUCING TO ISOLD
FOR POST MIDNIGHT HOURS. CONTINUING POPS THROUGH THE EVENING SEEMED
PRUDENT GIVEN STORMS THAT INITIATED EARLY THIS MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE EDGES WEST TOMORROW...AND MAY DECREASE PRECIP CHANCES FOR
EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...SFC TROF STILL EXPECTED TO BE ALIVE AND
KICKING IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW STORMS
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURS
AFTN AND EVENING. FRIDAY...RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE MUCH OF AREA
WHILE CLOSED UPPER LOW SITUATES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH
STEERING FLOW ACQUIRING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...STORMS MAY HAVE
A MORE DIFFICULT TIME MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLES. CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FRI EVNG FOR WESTERN PANHANDLES ONLY...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED
TO MONITOR POSITION OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL ENCROACH ON
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AREA.

CLOSED LOW STILL EXPECTED TO EJECT IN PIECES WITH MEAN TROF LINGERING
OVER ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE RETAINED INHERITED POPS FOR SAT
THRU MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS...AND A FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE PANHANDLES. MODEL CONSISTENCY IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
FRONT IS STILL POOR...SO WITH THIS PACKAGE HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE TIMING GIVEN DEPARTING WAVE.

00Z MEXMOS VALUES WERE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH CURRENT METEOROLOGICAL
REASONING...AND WERE GENLY FOLLOWED.

KRAMAR

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

11/14

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
236 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-201100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
236 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW COULD BRING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MILES AN HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS
TIME...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

GOEHRING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
501 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

TXZ020-192300-
COLLINGSWORTH TX-
501 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY...

AT 501 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF QUAIL MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
529 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

TXZ016-017-192330-
DEAF SMITH TX-RANDALL TX-
529 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH AND WEST CENTRAL
RANDALL COUNTIES...

AT 529 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF HEREFORD MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN DEAF SMITH AND WEST CENTRAL RANDALL
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CANYON AND HEREFORD...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

TXZ007-012-200000-
MOORE TX-POTTER TX-
604 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEASTERN MOORE AND NORTHWESTERN POTTER
COUNTIES...

AT 604 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MASTERSON MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN MOORE AND NORTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

TXZ012-017-200000-
POTTER TX-RANDALL TX-
621 PM CDT WED SEP 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING STRONG WINDS IN RANDALL AND
SOUTHERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 621 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMARILLO WHICH HAS
PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. THIS
FEATURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CITIES OF AMARILLO AND CANYON.

KIMBLE

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