Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
654 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.AVIATION...
TSTMS S OF AMA AND W OF DHT AT THIS TIME.  SCT STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE THRU EVE AS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS SUPPORTED BY MOIST SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND H5 COLD POOL MOVES IN FROM NW.  MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN GUY...EARLY SAT MRNG IN DHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY BOUNDARY /OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT/ DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES TODAY FROM NEAR BEAVER TO SOUTH OF DALHART. PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF HAS LIMITED HEATING
TODAY...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SOUTHWESTERN ZONES HAVE HEATED AMPLY...AND AS LIFT FROM
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER SOUTHCENTRAL COLORADO SPREADS EAST...WILL EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG THE FRONT AND ALONG ANY SUFFICIENTLY HEATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
THESE STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE FOR
REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED INHERITED POPS TONIGHT
WITH ATTENDANT MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND ENHANCED WIND PROFILES.

TOMORROW POSES SOME FORECASTING PROBLEMS. CLOUD COVER TODAY OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INHIBITED TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING MUCH OUT OF THE
LOW TO MID 70S. CONCERN ABOUNDS THAT THESE CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD
SOUTH TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH...WHICH COULD WREAK HAVOC
WITH WX TOMORROW. IF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION IS REALIZED...SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW IN A CLASSIC UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME. IF CLOUDS LINGER MOST OF THE DAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LIMITED. HAVE THEREFORE REORIENTED POPS SATURDAY NIGHT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN ZONES...WHERE GREATEST HEATING WILL BE
LIKELY. GIVEN CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME...WILL REFRAIN
FROM SEVERE WORDING IN ZONES FOR THE POTENTIAL SATURDAY EVENT. HAVE
ALSO COOLED MAX TEMPS IN THE NORTHEAST.

THEREAFTER...RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK...WITH
LESSER CHANCES OF PRECIP. LATEST GFS RUN IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE
WITH FRONT THAT THE 00Z RUN DEPICTED ARRIVING ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF A BOUNDARY INTRUSION INTO THE PANHANDLES.
THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN CONSISTENCY OF THE 00Z ENSEMBLES...AND
CONTINUED /THOUGH WEAKER/ EVIDENCE IN THE 12Z RUN...HAVE OPTED TO
RETAIN THE STATE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD GRIDS UNTIL A CLEARER SIGNAL
CAN BE ACHIEVED.

PREVIOUS PACKAGE WAS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE...AND WAS RETAINED WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SHORT TERM.

KRAMAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  89  67  93  66 /  40  20  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  68  86  68  97  70 /  50  20  20   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              62  87  64  95  64 /  40  20  20   5   5
BORGER TX                  67  89  70  95  71 /  40  20  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              65  89  66  95  66 /  40  20  20   5   5
CANYON TX                  65  89  66  93  64 /  40  20  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               68  89  67  94  68 /  40  20  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 63  87  64  96  64 /  40  20  20   5   5
GUYMON OK                  65  86  68  97  68 /  50  20  20   5   0
HEREFORD TX                65  90  65  93  64 /  40  20  20   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                69  86  68  95  69 /  50  20  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   66  87  68  93  69 /  40  20  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                71  88  68  94  69 /  40  20  20   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              71  90  68  95  70 /  40  20  20   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

07/03

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-251100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT FROM
COLORADO WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO PROVIDE LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
ALSO LEAD TO FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING...
WITH STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

GOEHRING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             CONWAY                  35.21N 101.38W
08/24/2007  E1.75 INCH       CARSON             TX   PUBLIC

            LOCAL MEDIA RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLF BALL HAIL

&&

CK

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