Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
647 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

.AVIATION...
EXPECT SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS EVE...WITH GUSTS
REMAINING ABOVE 25KT THRU THE NIGHT.  THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW-LEVEL JET SPEEDS
ABOVE 50KT EXPECTED OVER THE NERN TX PNHDL.  HAVE CARRIED CB AS CLOUD
TYPE FOR DHT THIS EVE...DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF ERN
NM. CONVECTION BEING SUPPORTED BY H7 VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR TAD.  LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WILL TAKE ON SWLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN.  THUS...NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH STRATUS
TO CONSTITUTE A CIG OVERNIGHT.  SWLY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING DAY ON THU...WITH HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPING IN AFTN.  VFR
FCST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS FORMING ON RADAR IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
MAY DRIFT INTO THE NW PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AS FLOW ALOFT WILL
RETAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT. THINKING THE LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVED INTO
THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING MAY ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE PANHANDLES
TOMORROW MORNING...BUT THINKING CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE IN TIME TO
ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE LOW 90S. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAIN IN
PLACE THURSDAY BUT MODELS KEEP THE PANHANDLES DRY UNTIL THE SHORT
WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ALSO SEEM TO
AGREE THAT THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES
FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...AND SINCE THE MODELS ARE
SPEEDING UP THE SHORT WAVE...DECIDED TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY MORNING...THEN LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN PLACE DURING THE DAY. AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE PANHANDLES
FRIDAY NIGHT...POPS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO CHANCE RANGE. WITH THE
WAVE BEING A BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS PROGS...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH
THE SUB SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL BUILD INTO A MORE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE. WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN YET AGAIN...BUT THE SURFACE TROUGH
RETURNS. SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO FORM OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WITH A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING
AND FORCING FROM THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. MODELS DO SHOW STORMS FORMING
OVER THE ROCKIES...BUT THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT THE STORMS
FROM REACHING THE PANHANDLES. SO KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW...AND WILL WAIT TO SEE WHERE THE REMNANTS OF DEAN END UP. AS WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE STILL HIGHLY VARIED BUT
THERE IS SOME HINT THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY RIDE AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE PANHANDLES MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

JJB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                67  93  69  90  66 /  10   5  10  20  20
BEAVER OK                  72  95  72  93  67 /  10  10  30  20  30
BOISE CITY OK              68  92  64  87  63 /  30  20  30  20  30
BORGER TX                  70  94  70  90  68 /   5   5  20  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              70  95  71  92  65 /  10  10  10  20  20
CANYON TX                  67  94  68  93  65 /  10  10  10  20  20
CLARENDON TX               68  92  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  20  30
DALHART TX                 68  92  66  88  62 /  30  20  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  70  95  67  88  64 /   5  10  30  20  30
HEREFORD TX                65  94  67  93  63 /  10  10  10  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                71  94  73  91  69 /  10  10  20  20  30
PAMPA TX                   69  90  68  88  68 /  10  10  10  20  30
SHAMROCK TX                70  93  71  90  70 /  10  10  10  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              71  95  72  94  71 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

03/07

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
722 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-231100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
722 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH WILL REQUIRE BOATERS TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AS
WELL AS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

COCKRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
738 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

TXZ001-006-011-016-230145-
DALLAM TX-DEAF SMITH TX-HARTLEY TX-OLDHAM TX-
738 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN DALLAM...NORTHWESTERN DEAF
SMITH...HARTLEY AND OLDHAM COUNTIES...

AT 738 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF DALHART TO 23
MILES WEST OF ADRIAN MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
741 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

OKZ001-230130-
CIMARRON OK-
741 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN EASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY...

AT 741 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF KEYES MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

JC