Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AS IS
EVIDENCED BY INCREASING DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...SOMETHING WHICH
DOES NOT HAPPEN AROUND THE HIGH PLAINS ALL THAT OFTEN. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A MOISTURE AND HEATING AXIS WHICH IS ORIENTED
PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE CAPROCK. RADAR IS INDICATING STRONG UPDRAFTS
BUT WEAK WIND SHEAR LEADING TO VERTICAL PULSE TYPE CONVECTION. SOME
OF THIS MAY GO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. A WBZ LEVEL OF 15KFT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR HAIL TO
BECOME TOO LARGE BUT STILL DEFINITELY POSSIBLE ABOVE SEVERE LEVELS
WITH CAPE NEAR 3K.

WV LOOPS SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS FILLED IN FROM YESTERDAY
ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVLOP IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
INDICATE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL COMBINE WITH THE
NM CONVECTION TO FORM AN MCS...WHICH AIDED BY A FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO WILL PROPOGATE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL KEEP
TEMPS DOWN TOMORROW BUT UPPER INSTABILITY FROM THE LOW TO OUR EAST
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS MADE DIFFICULT BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA...BUT THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS
THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN EASTERLY. THIS TYPE OF UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM CLIMBING MUCH AND THUS UNDERCUT MEX HIGHS THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  83  63  85  61 /  50  30  20  30  20
BEAVER OK                  68  85  63  90  63 /  50  30  30  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  84  63  87  60 /  50  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  68  85  67  90  66 /  50  30  20  30  20
BOYS RANCH TX              68  88  65  90  64 /  50  20  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  66  84  62  85  60 /  50  30  20  30  20
CLARENDON TX               67  83  63  85  64 /  50  40  30  30  30
DALHART TX                 66  87  62  88  60 /  50  20  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  66  85  64  88  62 /  50  20  20  20  20
HEREFORD TX                66  84  62  86  60 /  50  30  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                69  82  65  87  64 /  50  40  30  30  20
PAMPA TX                   67  81  65  85  64 /  50  30  30  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                69  82  65  86  66 /  50  40  30  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              69  84  66  88  66 /  50  40  30  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

17/10

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
343 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-271100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
343 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES UNTIL 11 PM CDT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT ONE OR TWO
STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS...PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGER AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES.

HENNIG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
246 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

OKZ001-262030-
CIMARRON OK-
246 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEASTERN CIMARRON COUNTY...

AT 246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF GRIGGS MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP WITH
SHORT NOTICE. TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

JORDAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
307 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             GRIGGS                  36.60N 102.12W
06/26/2007  E0.88 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   PUBLIC

&&

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
318 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     HAIL             7 W GRIGGS              36.60N 102.25W
06/26/2007  E1.75 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             15 SSE STRATFORD        36.14N 101.97W
06/26/2007  E0.75 INCH       SHERMAN            TX   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED

&&

CK