Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1216 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.AVIATION...
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. WILL EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT
KAMA FIRST FEW HOURS OF FORECAST AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH...BUT SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AND SCATTERED LOW TO MID CLOUDS. VARIABLE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY
AS SFC LOW ATTEMPTS TO REORGANIZE TO THE WEST...BRINGING LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A CONVECTIVE
REPEAT PERFORMANCE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

KRAMAR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
DALHART AND AMARILLO TAF SITES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION...WHILE VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION. LIGHT
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY SEEN ON SAT AND RADAR IN
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND PROPOGATE INTO
THE WESTERN CWA. MID AND UPPER FLOW TODAY SEEMS A BIT MORE NORTHERLY
WHICH MAY KEEP THE CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT WAS
NOTICED YESTERDAY. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY SO INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A BIT LESS...THOUGH STILL ENOUGH
TO SEEM SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AGAIN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TO THE WEST...HOWEVER AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY CAUSING MORE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
SPREADING CONVECTION FURTHER EAST. BY TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA FINALLY KILLING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND USHERING IN A PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL FINALLY BREAK 90 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK HERE IN AMA. THE FRONT THAT YESTERDAYS GFS WAS SHOWING MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK IS NOW SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO BE HOLDING UP IN KANSAS OR AT MOST THE NORTHERN CWA. AM NOW
GAINING CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA
THANKS TO PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MEANS HOT AND DRY FOR US
THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH I DID ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL SLIGHTLY THANKS
TO LOWER HEIGHTS.

HENNIG

AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

99/99

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1102 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
1102 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THE REST OF TONIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON
SUNDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
LIMITED ACTIVATION THE REST OF TONIGHT.

ANDRADE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1052 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             BOISE CITY              36.73N 102.51W
06/02/2007  E1.75 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   PUBLIC

0820 PM     HAIL             1 S BOISE CITY          36.72N 102.51W
06/02/2007  E1.50 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY QUARTERS SOME PING PONG BALL SIZE

0833 PM     HAIL             CANYON                  34.98N 101.92W
06/02/2007  E0.75 INCH       RANDALL            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

0834 PM     HAIL             CANYON                  34.98N 101.92W
06/02/2007  E0.88 INCH       RANDALL            TX   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA

0837 PM     HAIL             1 SW CANYON             34.97N 101.93W
06/02/2007  E1.75 INCH       RANDALL            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

0837 PM     HAIL             1 SW CANYON             34.97N 101.93W
06/02/2007  E1.75 INCH       RANDALL            TX   PUBLIC

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL RELAYED BY LOCAL
            BROADCAST MEDIA

0838 PM     HAIL             CANYON                  34.98N 101.92W
06/02/2007  M1.00 INCH       RANDALL            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

0842 PM     HAIL             CANYON                  34.98N 101.92W
06/02/2007  E1.00 INCH       RANDALL            TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL STILL FALLING AND BEGINNING
            TO COVER THE GROUND

0842 PM     HAIL             1 NW CANYON             34.99N 101.93W
06/02/2007  E1.75 INCH       RANDALL            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO GOLFBALL HAIL IN HUNSLEY HILLS

0845 PM     HAIL             1 S CANYON              34.97N 101.92W
06/02/2007  E1.75 INCH       RANDALL            TX   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL RELAYED BY LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA

0856 PM     HAIL             CANYON                  34.98N 101.92W
06/02/2007  E1.25 INCH       RANDALL            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH SOME UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
            DOLLARS

0900 PM     HAIL             CANYON                  34.98N 101.92W
06/02/2007  E1.75 INCH       RANDALL            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH SOME UP TO THE SIZE OF
            GOLF BALLS AT CANYON JR HIGH

&&

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1119 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

TXZ006-011-030500-
HARTLEY TX-OLDHAM TX-
1119 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN HARTLEY AND OLDHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 1119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11 MILES WEST OF CHANNING TO 14
MILES NORTHWEST OF ADRIAN MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

KRAMAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

TXZ006-007-011-012-030545-
HARTLEY TX-MOORE TX-OLDHAM TX-POTTER TX-
1157 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN HARTLEY...MOORE...
NORTHEASTERN OLDHAM AND NORTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 1157 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4 MILES WEST OF DUMAS TO 8 MILES
WEST OF BOYS RANCH MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ONE
HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS...ALONG WITH EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN HARTLEY...MOORE...NORTHEASTERN OLDHAM AND
NORTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF DUMAS...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY...LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

KRAMAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

TXZ002-003-030545-
HANSFORD TX-SHERMAN TX-
1159 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN HANSFORD AND SHERMAN COUNTIES...

AT 1159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRUVER TO 32
MILES WEST OF GRUVER MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

KRAMAR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1234 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

TXZ003-007-008-012-013-030615-
CARSON TX-HANSFORD TX-HUTCHINSON TX-MOORE TX-POTTER TX-
1234 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
CARSON...HANSFORD...HUTCHINSON...EASTERN MOORE AND NORTHERN POTTER
COUNTIES...

AT 1234 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRUVER TO 12
MILES SOUTH OF MASTERSON MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

KRAMAR

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