Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
658 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...LIKELY
AFFECTING KAMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE STORMS...WITH IFR OR WORSE VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER CORES. IFR CIGS
HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO KGUY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 KTS. THESE CIGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BY AROUND 15Z. WE COULD SEE SOME CIGS AT
KDHT AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AT KAMA AND KDHT. SURFACE WINDS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME TURNING ALL THE
WAY AROUND THE SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TOMORROW...SO WE HAVE
GONE WITH A MORE EASTERLY WIND. THIS UPSLOPE FLOW AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CB REMARKS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT KAMA AND KDHT.

JOHNSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND IS
LOCATED FROM A LIBERAL TO TUCUMCARI LINE. STRATOCU BEHIND THE FRONT
INDICATES LOW LEVEL STABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERCOME AND MAY VERY
WELL PREVENT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS KEPT TEMPS
DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND ENHANCING STABILITY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. AT PRESENT...THE MOST INSTABILITY RESIDES IN KANSAS WHERE
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE STRONGER INITIATING CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT...AND TO OUR SOUTH WHERE TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO THE POINT OF
INITIATING CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHS POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE
GREATER MOISTURE RESIDES BUT MUST ALSO KEEP AN EYE OUT WEST WHERE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO OUR CWA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH WILL LEAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
TONIGHT PERIOD SINCE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FORMING ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST AND MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AFTER 6 PM. HAVE
WARMER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND OUR ABILITY TO RECOVER.

BRIEF RIDGING FINALLY MOVES OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES TO DATE THANKS TO AN
UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO THE YEAR...WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABOVE 87 AT
AMA YET THIS YEAR HOWEVER ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN TOWARD THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA AND BRING RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT WITH MODEST COOLING AND
WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF POPS...THOUGH THIS MAY NEED CHANGING IF
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT.

HENNIG

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

24/02

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-021100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
100 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE LEVELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD BE READY FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SCHNEIDER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
641 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             3 E PALO DURO CANYON    34.95N 101.62W
06/01/2007  E0.88 INCH       ARMSTRONG          TX   PUBLIC

            INTERSECTION OF CR 1 AND FM 1258

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
653 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             3 NW VEGA               35.28N 102.46W
06/01/2007  E0.88 INCH       OLDHAM             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
655 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

TXZ003-004-009-020030-
HANSFORD TX-OCHILTREE TX-ROBERTS TX-
655 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEASTERN HANSFORD...SOUTHWESTERN
OCHILTREE AND NORTHWESTERN ROBERTS COUNTIES...

AT 655 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OCHILTREE COUNTY MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

KRAMAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
703 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             6 N ADRIAN              35.36N 102.66W
06/01/2007  E1.50 INCH       OLDHAM             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JC