Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
ALONG WITH BRIEF VERY INTENSE DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SWITH TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. LOW CEILINGS AND SOME FOG MAY BRING IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007/

DISCUSSION...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE. NAM IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFS/EURO AND UKMET. SO CONFIDENCE INCREASED GREATLY
CONCERNING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...WV IMAGERY
SHOWS THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER WAVE WITH ITS AXIS GENERALLY ALONG
THE ROCKIES. RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES AN 85KT TO 95KT UPPER LEVEL JET
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL AID IN PUSHING THE LOW INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW...AND ALLOW THE LOW TO CUT
OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. AT THE SURFACE...DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO
RISE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS MOISTURE ADVECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
LL FLOW IS IN PLACE FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE
DEW POINTS NEAR 50 DEGREES BY 04Z TONIGHT IF PATTERN CONTINUES. FRONT
IS STILL APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
REACH THE NW ZONES JUST BEFORE 06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH INCREASING LAPSE RATES
AND A SHEAR PROFILE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
PROFILE SUGGESTS THE STORMS WOULD BE GENERALLY HIGH BASED...BUT WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SO
CONCERNS WILL BE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLE DOWNBURST
WINDS. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LOW AND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE
FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLES FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH SEEM LIKELY
AS DEEPEST MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. SINCE THERE
WAS GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY ON HEAVY PRECIP LOCATION AND
TIMING...DECIDED TO UP POPS INTO THE 80 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE AND LEFT
A SIMILAR PRECIP BULLSEYE OVER THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME CONCERN FOR HYDROLOGY BASED ON MODEL QPF AS BOTH NAM AND
GFS SHOW OVER 3 INCHES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON
SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SITUATION AS LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE.

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF ACROSS LUBBOCKS CWA AND
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS UP
TO 12Z TUESDAY...THEN WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH DAY 7. NW FLOW
ALOFT RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW KICKS OUT TO THE EAST.
MODELS HINTING AT PRECIP CHANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ALSO...THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NW
FLOW ALOFT BUT THE GFS HAS BEEN UNCERTAIN ON PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE
LAST FEW RUNS...SO DECIDED TO CONTINUE PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH BELOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
PACKAGE...TRENDED BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NW WHERE RECENT OBS SHOW
THIS AREA TO BE COOLER THAN THE MAV SUGGESTS. WHICH LEADS TO AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT A FEW SNOW FLURRIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE NOT THINKING THE AIR WILL COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ACCUMULATING SNOW.

JJB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

09/15

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
400 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-111100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
400 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST PARTS OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE STRENGTH...
RESULTING IN ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO PENNY
SIZE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REQUIRE
BOATERS TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON AREA LAKES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

NUNEZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             2 S PANHANDLE           35.32N 101.38W
03/10/2007  E1.00 INCH       CARSON             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOUTH OF PANHANDLE ON HIGHWAY 207

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
707 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             PAMPA                   35.55N 100.96W
03/10/2007  E0.88 INCH       GRAY               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOCAL MEDIA RELAYED REPORT OF NICKEL HAIL IN PAMPA

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
714 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             1 SE MIAMI              35.68N 100.63W
03/10/2007  M1.00 INCH       ROBERTS            TX   STORM CHASER

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
721 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             ASHTOLA                 35.01N 101.04W
03/10/2007  E0.88 INCH       DONLEY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
726 PM CST SAT MAR 10 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             MIAMI                   35.69N 100.64W
03/10/2007  E1.25 INCH       ROBERTS            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL

&&

CK

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