Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
235 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER FOCUS WILL BE TONIGHT AS RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ALLOW MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO SPREAD OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SFC LOW IS
DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SERVE TO BACK THE WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...
PRODUCING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ENHANCED FURTHER IN THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN INSTABILITY...STRONG LIFT ENHANCED BY MIDLEVEL JET MAX AT
OR ABOVE 50 KT...AND AMPLE MOISTURE...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH
OF THE PANHANDLES. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED TONIGHT BY THE
PRESENCE OF THE LOWLEVEL JET. STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
PENETRATE TONIGHT...AND CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT A MORE LINEAR STORM
SYSTEM WILL ENSUE AS THIS BOUNDARY OVERTAKES THE MOIST AIRMASS...AS
SOMEWHAT OF A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE TONIGHT.

LINGERING POPS IN THE EAST SEEMED REASONABLE TOMORROW MORNING AS
STORMS EXIT THE AREA. FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE...AS
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE STORMS FORMING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL VACATE THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE...BUT SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THE REMAINING
FORECAST PERIODS AS MINOR DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH AND MOISTURE
ATTEMPTS TO MAKE A COMEBACK. IN GENERAL...HAVE RETAINED POPS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH WERE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH CURRENT MEXMOS
NUMBERS.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...LOWERED A FEW DEGREES TOMORROW FROM MEXMOS
HIGHS AS CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSOLATION.
OTHERWISE...MEXMOS NUMBERS SEEMED GENERALLY REASONABLE.

KRAMAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                49  69  52  77  58 /  60   5  20  30  30
BEAVER OK                  52  71  48  78  60 /  80   5  10  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              43  69  48  79  56 /  80   5  10  30  30
BORGER TX                  49  71  53  78  63 /  70   5  20  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              49  72  52  79  58 /  60   5  20  30  30
CANYON TX                  49  69  53  79  56 /  50   5  20  30  30
CLARENDON TX               51  70  53  74  60 /  60  20  20  30  30
DALHART TX                 46  69  49  78  55 /  60   5  10  30  30
GUYMON OK                  49  72  49  80  60 /  80   5  10  30  30
HEREFORD TX                49  69  52  79  55 /  50   5  20  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                51  71  48  77  61 /  80  20  20  30  30
PAMPA TX                   50  71  51  75  61 /  70  20  20  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                51  71  54  75  60 /  70  30  20  30  30
WELLINGTON TX              55  71  55  77  61 /  70  30  20  30  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
531 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-241100-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
531 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 293 TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
THROUGH 11 PM CDT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT. TORNADOES...
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE GENERALLY
EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 287 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. OTHER THREATS
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN...CAUSING ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING...AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS WILL LIKELY
BE CALLED UPON FOR ACTIVATION THROUGH TONIGHT.

NUNEZ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
622 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     HAIL             12 S PERRYTON           36.22N 100.80W
05/23/2007  E0.75 INCH       OCHILTREE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CK