Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
315 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS MOVED INTO ERN TX PNHDL...WITH SFC DWPTS IN MID-50S TO
MID-60S LYING AHEAD OF DRYLINE.  WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF POSSIBLY
SEVERE TSTMS TNGT IN ERN ZONES...ALLOWING FOR POSSIBILITY OF DRYLINE
RETREATING DURING EARLY EVE.  ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER ERN
NM AT THIS TIME...WHERE COLDER TEMPS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE
ASSISTING DEVELOPMENT.  ASSOCIATED CDFNT WILL MAKE HEADWAY INTO WRN
AND CENTRAL ZONES TNGT...SO LOW POPS RETAINED WEST OF DRYLINE.

DEEP MSTR EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE OVER ERN ZONES ON SUN...WITH TSTMS
EXPECTED AGAIN.  HAVE INCREASED POPS SUN AND SUN NGT OVER ERN
ZONES.  HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS ON MON...AS DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROF
ALLOWS DEEP MSTR RETURN INTO ERN ZONES.  POPS RETAINED MON NGT THRU
WED...AS H5 TROF MOVES SLOWLY EWD.  FOR THU AND BEYOND...H5 TROF
PULLS E OF FCST AREA...WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT COMMENCING AS H5 RDG
BUILDS INTO AREA.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                55  78  51  66  50 /  20  30  20  30  30
BEAVER OK                  61  74  56  72  49 /  50  50  50  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              45  72  46  63  44 /  20  30  30  30  30
BORGER TX                  61  77  55  71  52 /  20  30  20  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              52  78  53  67  47 /  20  30  20  30  30
CANYON TX                  52  78  51  64  49 /  20  30  20  30  30
CLARENDON TX               63  79  57  69  53 /  30  30  30  40  40
DALHART TX                 48  73  48  64  44 /  20  30  20  30  30
GUYMON OK                  51  75  53  68  47 /  20  40  30  30  30
HEREFORD TX                50  77  49  63  48 /  20  20  20  30  30
LIPSCOMB TX                62  77  57  71  53 /  50  60  50  30  30
PAMPA TX                   63  74  54  67  53 /  30  40  30  30  30
SHAMROCK TX                65  75  62  69  55 /  40  50  50  40  40
WELLINGTON TX              65  77  64  71  56 /  40  50  50  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

07/03

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