Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Amarillo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
422 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THESE ARE MOVING SOUTH AND WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS MADE ITS WAY EAST TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOMORROW MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AS WIND PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY ON THURSDAY WITH
SOME POSSIBLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS MOISTURE MAY LINGER IN THE EASTERN AREAS DESPITE
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US TRANSITIONS TO A CUT OFF SYSTEM
OVER ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND IF STORMS ARE ABLE
TO BREAK THE CAP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. APPEARS THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES AFTER TUESDAY.

KIMBLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                56  69  53  78  55 /  20  70  50  10   5
BEAVER OK                  56  68  54  75  55 /  50  70  70  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              52  67  50  78  51 /  20  70  50  10   0
BORGER TX                  57  72  55  77  58 /  30  70  60  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              58  70  55  81  53 /  20  70  50   5   5
CANYON TX                  55  72  53  78  53 /  20  70  50   5   5
CLARENDON TX               57  73  57  78  58 /  30  70  60  20  10
DALHART TX                 53  69  51  78  49 /  20  70  50   5   0
GUYMON OK                  53  69  52  77  54 /  40  70  60  20   5
HEREFORD TX                55  70  54  81  51 /  30  70  40   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                59  69  57  76  59 /  50  70  70  20  10
PAMPA TX                   56  70  54  76  59 /  30  70  60  20   5
SHAMROCK TX                58  74  57  77  59 /  40  70  70  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              60  76  59  79  59 /  30  70  70  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

OKZ002-TXZ003-012100-
HANSFORD TX-TEXAS OK-
325 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHERN HANSFORD
COUNTIES...

AT 325 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OPTIMA MOVING SOUTH AT 20
MPH.

ONE HALF INCH SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LG

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