Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

000 
WWUS54 KAMA 232313
SVSAMA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
510 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

TXC129-232320-
/O.EXP.KAMA.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070223T2315Z/
DONLEY TX-
510 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DONLEY COUNTY EXPIRES AT 515
PM CST...

THE THUNDERSTORM IS MOVING INTO GRAY COUNTY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 515 PM CST. HOWEVER...A 
SECOND STRONG STORM IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN DONLEY COUNTY TO THE 
NORTH. THIS STORM IS INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND MAY REACH SEVERE 
LEVELS.  

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

LAT...LON 3496 10108 3482 10087 3518 10055 3518 10096

$$

JJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
338 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A WHOLE LOT GOING ON THIS FCST SO APOLOGIES FOR THE LENGTHY
DISCUSSION. FIRST AND FOREMOST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SPECIAL 20Z
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT HAS STARTED TO COOL
DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM CURRENTLY OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...MIXING HAS STARTED TO SHARPEN UP
THE DRYLINE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK OR ALONG A PERRYTON TO
TURKEY LINE. NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH FURTHER THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH
EAST AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DEWPOINTS HAVE
CONTINUED TO RISE A DEGREE OR TWO PER HOUR MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE IS ALSO INCREASING WITH TIME. 18Z NAM IS SHOWING STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS AT THE SURFACE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WAVE
WHICH COULD HELP TO PULL THE DRYLINE BACK TO THE WEST TOWARDS SUNSET.
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE JUST ON TOP OF THE
CAPROCK WITH THE STORMS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHAST AND STRENGTHENING
ONCE THEY GET INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OFF THE CAPROCK. WIND PROFILES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO
TONIGHT...THUS A BRIEF WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OFF THE CAPROCK. ONCE WE GET PAST
SUNSET HOWEVER...LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE
SHOULD TRANSITION THE SEVERE THREAT TO LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

SECOND ISSUE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS FOR TOMORROW. ALL MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
700 MB ALL OF WHICH FAVOR STRONG WINDS. LOCAL HIGH WIND FLOWCHART
DOES SHOW SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AND COULD
SEE SOME GUSTS UP AS HIGH AS 55 TO 60 MPH ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING STARTING
AT 6 AM SATURDAY AND RUN THROUGH 9 PM SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN REASON TO
TAKE IT PAST SUNSET WAS TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR A SHORT WINDOW AFTER THE HIGH
WIND WARNING EXPIRES...BUT FEEL WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RAMP DOWN AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AT NIGHT AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH LOW
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AS IF THE WINDS WERE NOT ENOUGH...SOME
BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO DO SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO CREATE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AT DALHART ALSO SHOW PROFILE
FAVORABLE FOR SNOWFALL BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY CLIMB UP TO
ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
CIMARRON AND DALLAM COUNTIES BUT INCOMING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE THIS CLOSELY. SNOW/RAIN LINE SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE
CANADIAN RIVER SO THAT ANYTHING SOUTH OF THERE SHOULD SEE LIQUID
PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HORIZONTAL RAIN.

WEATHER FINALLY LOOKS TO CALM DOWN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. COULD BE SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER WITH
THE DRY AIRMASS BUT FEEL THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PRODUCT
ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. MINIMAL TIME WAS SPENT ON THE EXTENDED
FORECAST DUE TO WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT CURSORY GLANCE
SHOWS FORECAST TO BE IN DECENT SHAPE.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                38  50  27  55  28 /   5  20   5   0   0
BEAVER OK                  41  49  26  50  23 /  30  40  20   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              34  37  22  52  24 /  30  50  10   0   0
BORGER TX                  44  50  31  58  31 /  10  30  10   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              37  56  24  59  27 /  10  30   5   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  53  26  56  29 /   5  20   5   0   0
CLARENDON TX               42  53  30  59  29 /   5  20  10   0   0
DALHART TX                 34  48  24  54  25 /  20  40  10   0   0
GUYMON OK                  36  40  28  54  23 /  10  40  20   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  56  27  57  29 /   5  20   5   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                43  49  29  52  26 /  30  20  20   0   0
PAMPA TX                   43  48  29  53  33 /   5  20  10   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                45  54  28  57  28 /  20  20  10   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              45  59  29  60  28 /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...
     HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.

&&

03/17

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
349 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-241200-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
349 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE EASTERN HALVES
OF THE PANHANDLES...

OVER THE EASTERN HALVES OF THE PANHANDLES...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. BOATERS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ON AREA LAKES AREA-WIDE DUE TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THROUGH 9 PM
SATURDAY...

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS WIND GUSTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH SPEEDS OF NEAR 60 MILES AN HOUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALVES OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

COCKRELL