Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Amarillo, TX

000 
WWUS84 KAMA 202051
RFWAMA

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
251 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

...HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
YIELD A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TXZ008>020-210000-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-071121T0000Z/
HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-GRAY-WHEELER-
DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
251 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. DRY AIR AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE FACTORS WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1142 PM CST MON NOV 19 2007

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THIS FORECAST.
EXPECT FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW A HINT OF LOW CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH
MAY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS.

NUNEZ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 PM CST MON NOV 19 2007/

FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING DUE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLING AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH
TONIGHT WHICH IS BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...SO LET THE RED FLAG
WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EXPIRE.

CLK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CST MON NOV 19 2007/

AVIATION...
NO BIG CONCERN FOR THE NIGHTTIME. ON TUESDAY...WELL BE WATCHING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

NUNEZ

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM CST MON NOV 19 2007/

DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY SQUEAK OUT ONE MORE NICE DAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
INVADES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FROM
WED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NRN ZONES TUE AFTERNOON...THEN INTO
SRN TX PNHDL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SOUTH OF FCST AREA AFTER
SUNSET TUESDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A DRY ONE AS MAIN
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF SHOULD PASS N OF PNHDLS. COULD BE A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED ACROSS NRN ZNS BUT AM NOT
EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND HAVE LOWERED POPS TO BELOW MENTIONABLE
DURG THIS TIMEFRAME. MUCH COLDER TEMPS FOR WED.

THEN THE HEADACHES BEGIN. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO SOME
AGREEMENT REGARDING NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF DIGGING SWD THRU WRN
STATES...THEN CLOSING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER SWRN US THANKSGIVING NIGHT.
WHERE IT GOES FROM THERE AND WHEN IT EJECTS IS THE BIG DILEMMA THE
MODELS ARE HAVING. 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWEST AND GFS IS FASTEST...WITH
UKMET SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE. BASED ON A BLEND OF PROGGED PATH AND
TIMING...HAVE GONE WITH THE SLGT CHC POPS SWRN ZNS THU AFTN...CHC
SWRN HALF AND SLGT CHC NERN HALF THU NIGHT...CHC AREAWIDE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...THEN SLGT CHC POPS SAT. DUE TO AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF COLD
AIR...MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE IN FORM OF SNOW...WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW
MIXED OFF CAPROCK IN SERN ZNS AT TIMES. IT APPEARS GREATEST THREAT
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL BE IN SRN ZNS BUT THAT COULD CHANGE IF
MODELS CHANGE THEIR TUNES ON PROGGED PATH. WITH CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE OPTED TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 30 POPS
FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD...AND KEPT GRIDDED POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN ADVISORY CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. A LOT COULD CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND
THE END OF THE WEEK...SO FELT BEST TO GO WITH A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
TO THIS PCKG. EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH SOME RECOVERY IN
TEMPS.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
SWRN TX PNHDL IN RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTN...WITH RED FLAG WARNING
IN EFFECT UNTIL 01Z. THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUE...ESPECIALLY SRN HALF OF TX PNHDL. LATER
SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER AT LEAST A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

08/05

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
700 PM CST MON NOV 19 2007

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-201200-
ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
700 PM CST MON NOV 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  IN ADDITION TO DRY FUELS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...SPREADING AREAWIDE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

NUNEZ