Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WWUS51 KALY 051718
SVSALY

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

NYC001-083-091-051730-
/O.CON.KALY.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-070605T1730Z/
ALBANY NY-RENSSELAER NY-SARATOGA NY-
117 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT
FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SARATOGA...WEST CENTRAL RENSSELAER AND
NORTHEASTERN ALBANY COUNTIES...

AT 113 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR NEWTONVILLE...OR ABOUT NEAR LATHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOGHT
CORNERS...GREEN ISLAND...COHOES AND CRESCENT STATION

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN COHOES WITH 
THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE 
ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

LAT...LON 4271 7369 4264 7375 4274 7391 4275 7391
      4276 7390 4277 7381 4279 7379 4278 7377
      4280 7375 4280 7373 4276 7368

$$
JPV/VTK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND USHER IN
MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WILL DRAG A
WARM FRONT AND THEN A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE THREAT OF MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
14Z ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG COLD FRONT SLICING THROUGH WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL NY...WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG DISSIPATING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH OUR FORECAST
AREA...AND SOME CLEARING OCCURRING...SBCAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE COMMON ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH
STRONG FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WELL. 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KTS ALONG WITH THE STRONG FORCING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ORGANIZATION OF STORMS INTO CLUSTERS/LINES...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT AS 30-40 KT FLOW BETWEEN
500-700 MB WILL BE PRESENT. WBZERO HEIGHTS OF AROUND 9 KFT WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF HAIL AS WELL...POSSIBLY UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN
SOME CELLS. MODERATE CAPE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH
STRONG FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BEEF UP
WORDING IN FORECAST TO MENTION SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING AND
HAVE ONLY KEPT ENHANCED WORDING ACROSS FAR NE PORTION OF FA UNTIL
00Z. TONIGHT CLOUDS AND SOME WIND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT FROST IN
ADIRONDACKS...BUT A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
UPPER 30S AND 40S ACROSS BULK OF FA. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERY CHILLY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST NIGHT IN SEVERAL WEEKS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S. IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...FROST LOOKS TO BE ALMOST A CERTAINTY AS
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD. TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A
HEADLINE...BUT THIS WILL BE COVERED IN HWO. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS...WITH THE NEXT
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ON FRIDAY
TEMPS MAY GET VERY WARM ONCE AGAIN AS BULK OF FA IN WARM
SECTOR...SO 80S TO PERHAPS 90 ACROSS BULK OF FA. 0-3KM HELICITY
VALUES IN 60-200 RANGE AND MLMU CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG. THUS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN. THE
PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOOK FOR IFR CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AS CIGS LIFT
AND ANY FOG DISSIPATES DUE TO AN INCREASING SOUTH WIND.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON.  LOOK FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MIDDAY. OUR AREA IS
OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN HAIL. WE FIGURE THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE BETWEEN ABOUT 17Z AND
22Z. WE HAVE PLACED CB WITH SHOWERS IN OUR TERMINALS. CERTAINLY
TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS BUT SOMETHING THAT MUST BE
MONITORED AND WE STRONGLY ENCOURAGE ANY USERS PLANNING TO DEPART
AFTER THE MORNING PEAK TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES CONCERNING ANY
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM TRENDS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS OUR TERMINALS BY 22Z WITH A NOTABLE
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO WEST GUSTING TO 20 KTS OR HIGHER AT KALB
AND KPOU...LESS SO AT KGFL. AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH CONVECTION
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
PRETTY QUICKLY. HAVE PLACED VCSH FOR NOW THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.

AFTER THAT...SHOULD BE LEFT WITH VFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BUT
STILL A NOTABLE WEST BREEZE...ESPECIALLY AT KALB. DUE TO THE BREEZE
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION...NOT LOOKING FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
.WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
.THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.
.FRI...VFR. WDLY SCT PM -TSRAS.
.SAT...VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
YESTERDAYS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM ALBANY AND POINTS EAST AND
SOUTHWARD (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS)...RESULTED IN SOME
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON SELECT STREAMS AND RIVERS. FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST...LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN FELL WITH LITTLE OR NO
EFFECT ON WATERSHEDS.

AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE QUARTER TO
HALF INCH RANGE AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE FURTHER IMPACT ON MOST RIVERS
AND STREAMS. A THUNDERSTORM CONTAINING LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
COULD RESULT IN SMALLER STREAMS IN THE VICINITY RESPONDING BRIEFLY
TO NEAR BANKFULL.

AFTER THIS EVENING...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED AND THU SO ALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL RECEDE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...JPV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ033-039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084-
VTZ013>015-061100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-
NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-
WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
1226 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 347 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW
YORK EXCEPT HERKIMER COUNTY...SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN CONNECTICUT...
LITCHFIELD.

IN NEW YORK...
ALBANY...CLOUMBIA...DUTCHESS...FULTON...GREENE...HAMILTON...
MONTGOMERY...RENSSELAER...SARATOGA..SCHENECTADY...SCHOHARIE
...ULSTER...WARREN...AND WASHINGTON.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...
BERKSHIRE.

IN VERMONT...
BENNINGTON...AND WINDHAM.

NYZ032-038-061100-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
1226 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR HERKIMER COUNTY NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND SOME MAY
BECOME STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A CHILLY AIRMASS MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1134 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

NYZ065-066-051615-
WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-
1134 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN DUTCHESS COUNTY...

AT 1131 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FISHKILL...OR ABOUT 7 MILES EAST OF BEACON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HOPEWELL JUNCTION BY 1140 AM EDT
PAWLING BY 1150 AM EDT
WINGDALE BY NOON EDT
DOVER PLAINS BY 1205 PM EDT

JPV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

CTZ001-051645-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-
1202 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...

AT NOON EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...AROUND HALF INCH HAIL...WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR KENT...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTH OF SHERMAN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
CORNWALL BRIDGE...CORNWALL BRIDGE POTTERY AND SHARON BY 1210 PM EDT
FALLS VILLAGE BY 1220 PM EDT

JPV/VTK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1229 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     HAIL             STILLWATER              42.95N 73.64W
06/05/2007  M0.75 INCH       SARATOGA           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     LIGHTNING        SCHENECTADY             42.80N 73.93W
06/05/2007                   SCHENECTADY        NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 2 INJ *** 20 YEAR OLD FEMALE TRANSPORTED TO ALBANY
            MED. 16 YEAR OLD FEMALE SUFFERED SUPERFICIAL WOUND

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1251 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             EASTON                  42.99N 73.55W
06/05/2007  M1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&