Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
320 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF FRONT VERY WARM SOUPY AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
BEHIND FRONT DEWPOINTS QUICKLY DROP OFF INTO THE 50S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY FRONT. LOTS OF AVAILABLE CAPE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WIND
SHEAR IS LACKING. THEREFORE WIDELY ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE...BUT WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND K-INDEX IN
UPPER 30S...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MORE OF A THREAT. WE HAD A
REPORT OF 1.1 INCHES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN CATSKILL NY FROM A
THUNDERSTORM...AND SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATE FRONT WILL STALL OVER AREA TONIGHT AND
MOVE BACK NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON SUNDAY. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS SHOWS LAST OF THREE WAVES MOVING ALONG FRONT GETTING CLOSE TO
AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE ALONG FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA BRINGING THE CHANCE OF RAIN. NAM NOT AS
ROBUST WITH LOW PRESSURE AND FURTHER SOUTH SO NOT SHOWING MORE
THAN SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY. 12Z ECMWF MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF NAM SOLUTION. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS INTO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY NEXT COLD FRONT
NEARS REGION AND MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW RAIN SHOWERS. GFS SHOWS FRONT
STALLING WITH WAVES MOVING ALONG IT BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
UPSTATE NY.  SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN NY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER
SRN NY AND NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TOWARDS 12Z.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH SCT MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS IN THE SHRAS AND TSRAS.  WE HAD TO PLACE TEMPOS FOR KALB
AND KPOU WITH THE TSRAS FORMING.  ONE TSRA JUST MISSED KALB AROUND
17Z.  VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AFTER 00Z WITH SCT SHRAS AT
KALB AND KPOU. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO MVFR LEVELS
06Z-12Z WITH A RAIN SHIELD DEVELOPING FROM KALB NORTH TO KGFL WITH
THE FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.  CONFIDENCE HAS NOT
INCREASED ENOUGH TO GO IFR/LIFR LEVELS FOR KALB AND KGFL YET IN THE
08Z-18Z TIME FRAME...BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED FURTHER IN
TAF ISSUANCES.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.  THE WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST AT 5 KTS AFTER 12Z.

SUN...MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS...OCCASIONAL RAIN KALB AND KGFL
      VFR KPOU
MON...VFR/MVFR...SCATTERED SHRAS/TSRAS.
TUE...VFR/MVFR...CHANCE OF -RA TUE PM INTO THE EVENING.
WED...VFR...NO SIG WX.
THU...VFR...NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES RISE BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...SHIFTING TO LIGHT EAST
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO
80 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST. CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL RAIN FOR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER ACROSS THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA. SEE DROUGHT STATEMENT
(ESFALY) ISSUED ON 7 SEPTEMBER FOR DETAILS. AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF
WEATHER WITH CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SCT CONVECTIVE PCPN WILL FALL IN A FEW LOCALES. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING AT LEAST THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THE DAY FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING ALONG
THE FRONT MAY BRING RAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DIRIENZO
NEAR TERM...DIRIENZO
SHORT TERM...DIRIENZO
LONG TERM...DIRIENZO
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...DIRIENZO
HYDROLOGY...WASULA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
212 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007

NYZ059>061-081915-
EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-EASTERN GREENE NY-
212 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN COLUMBIA AND EASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES...

AT 211 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CATSKILL...
OR ABOUT OVER CATSKILL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
HUDSON AND 6 MILES NORTH OF LIVINGSTON BY 220 PM EDT
CLAVERACK BY 225 PM EDT
PHILMONT BY 240 PM EDT
7 MILES SOUTH OF CHATHAM BY 250 PM EDT
AUSTERLITZ BY 305 PM EDT

RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED A INCH AN HOUR FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM.

WASULA