Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WWUS81 KALY 081350
RFWALY

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007


MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-082>084-VTZ013>015-
090000-
/O.CAN.KALY.FW.W.0003.070510T1500Z-070511T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KALY.FW.W.0004.070508T1500Z-070509T0000Z/
NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER-SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-
NORTHERN WARREN-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
950 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...THE MID AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILL REGION OF EAST
CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND THE BERKSHIRES OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000
FEET TO AROUND 80 INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...LITTLE RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK...AND INCREASING 
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
334 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
THEN A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF YET AGAIN TODAY...AS THIS WILL
BE THE SIXTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT TODAY...WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT
MOVING IN AS WELL. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO AROUND +11C TO
+12C...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO UPPER 70S IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS AROUND...BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A BIT OF A SOUTHWEST BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS A BIT. THE STRONGEST H85 WINDS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...SO MAINLY GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH EXPECTED AS WINDS ALOFT
MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MILDER TEMPS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...AS A BIT OF A GRADIENT REMAINS.
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS WILL HAVE TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE ON WED...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO NEAR 50. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION...SO WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST AREA DRY WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
FORCING MECHANISMS. MAX TEMPS WED WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER. WED NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD...DUE TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE FIRST PERIOD WHERE A CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
INTRODUCED SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST WEEK. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF PASSAGE MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED
CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY LOW THOUGH...SO WILL JUST MENTION
MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING...BUT LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S LOOK WELL OVERDONE. MAINLY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S EXPECTED...SO MORE LIKELY 250-500 J/KG WILL BE
COMMON...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER THOUGH. WITH WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY...JUST GARDEN VARIETY T-STORMS
WILL OCCUR. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVG WITH WARM AIR MASS
PERSISTING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST MADE BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT. FIRST
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WITH A STRONGER
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY...BRINING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR FORECAST TO FILTER IN FOR
SUNDAY...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS
CONTROL. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL OVER THE RIDGE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW TODAY INCREASING THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK THROUGH SATURDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER TWENTIES...AND RECOVER INTO
THE 70 TO 100 PERCENT RANGE TONIGHT...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. ON WEDNESDAY HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER...IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE...WITH 40 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE DOMINATES.
RIVER AND STREAM LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE TOWARD BASE FLOW
LEVELS. NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ013.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-049-
     050-052-053-059-060-064-065-083-084.
MA...NONE.
CT...&&

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-091100-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-
WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-
WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-
WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
410 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AWARENESS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 12 AND 24 MPH...COMBINED WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.