Alert archive / New York / Blizzard Warnings in 2007
Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Albany, NY
NWS Albany, NY issued this blizzard warning at Feb 14, 2007, 4:49 AM EST for 12 counties in New York; Bennington County, Windham County, Vermont; Berkshire County, Massachusetts. It was in force for 17 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 14, 2007, 4:49 AM EST (09:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 14, 2007, 10:03 PM EST
- In force
- 17 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Albany, NY
Counties Berkshire County, MA, Albany County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Bennington County, VT, Windham County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 31 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1751 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 59 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 17 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 203 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS41 KALY 140949 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 449 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-082>084-VTZ013>015-142200- /O.CAN.KALY.HS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.BZ.W.0001.070214T0949Z-070215T1100Z/ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY- EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER- WESTERN GREENE-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...ATWELL... BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD... OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN... AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG... WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON... ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY... HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...NORTHVILLE... MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS... FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE... NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 449 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA SPRINGS REGION...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...THE UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...AND ACROSS NORTHERN BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES IN VERMONT...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND BY DAYBREAK. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...INCLUDING THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE ON THE GROUND BY DAYBREAK. A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...IN WHICH SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE INCH PER HOUR. IN ADDITION...SOME SLEET COULD MIX IN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THE SNOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...AND WILL PERSIST...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS THESE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES DEVELOP. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND SOME GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 MPH. THIS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY ALLOW CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COLD...COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...COULD DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO DANGEROUS LEVELS. AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROJECTED TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 30 INCHES...WITH SOME HIGH TERRAIN LOCALITIES POSSIBLY GETTING AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF THREE FEET. A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. $$ NYZ059>061-063-064-142200- /O.CAN.KALY.HS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ /O.EXA.KALY.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER- EASTERN ULSTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO... JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE... WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA... KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ 449 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... ...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY. THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW WILL THEN RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW BANDS DEVELOP. THESE HEAVY SNOW BANDS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. MOST ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN THE HUDSON VALLEY CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THERE AS WELL. THE INCREASING WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES. AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING...PROJECTED TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 INCHES... WITH SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALITIES POSSIBLY GETTING AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO FEET. THE WIND WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO BLOW AND DRIFT THE SNOW WELL INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COLD COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...COULD DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO DANGEROUS LEVELS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. $$ CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ065-066-142200- /O.CON.KALY.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE- WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD... TERRYVILLE...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC... POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS... MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON 449 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE LITCHFIELD HILLS...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...AND LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY. A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING...INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FREEZING RAIN MIGHT ALSO MIX...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE SLEET AND ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL REDUCE THE TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER...THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SWITCH BACK TO ALL SNOW BY LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE ENDING DURING THE EVENING. THE WIND WILL PICK UP IN THIS AREA AS WELL...FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION...GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. EVENTUALLY...AS THE WIND TURNS MORE NORTHERLY...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL FLOW DOWN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL. THE WIND WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA WILL BE 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET OR ICE ARE EXPECTED. SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE THE PROMINENT PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THIS STORM. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. $$ KL/IAA/RCK
3 follow-up statements
000 WWUS41 KALY 141657 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1157 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-082>084-VTZ013>015-150515- /O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY- EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER- WESTERN GREENE-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...ATWELL... BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD... OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN... AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG... WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON... ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY... HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...NORTHVILLE... MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS... FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE... NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 1157 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...THE LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA SPRINGS REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE EASTERN CATSKILL REGION...AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 30 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY. ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...AND SOME GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 40 MPH. THIS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT. A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COLD...COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...COULD DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO DANGEROUS LEVELS. A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. $$ CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ059>061-063>066-150515- /O.CON.KALY.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE- EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER- EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD... TERRYVILLE...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC... CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS... HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK... WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...KINGSTON... NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING... DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON 1157 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE LITCHFIELD HILLS...THE LOWER AND MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOW BANDS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. MOST ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN THE HUDSON VALLEY CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THERE AS WELL. THE INCREASING WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES. A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL INCREASE...PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW BY MID AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WITH 12 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN ULSTER COUNTY. THE WIND WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO BLOW AND DRIFT THE SNOW WELL INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COLD COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...COULD DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO DANGEROUS LEVELS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. $$ KL/ROK/HWJIV
000 WWUS41 KALY 142222 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 522 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058-082>084-VTZ013>015-151100- /O.CON.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY- EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER- WESTERN GREENE-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...ATWELL... BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD... OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN... AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG... WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON... ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY... HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...NORTHVILLE... MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS... FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE... NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 522 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST...REACHING CAPE COD LATER THIS EVENING...AND THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...A NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 MPH...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE RANGED FROM ONE TO MORE THAN TWO FEET ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. IN ADDITION...WE STILL EXPECT A NORTHWEST WIND TO INCREASE WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL PERSIST EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAKING SOME ROADS IMPASSIBLE. SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES ARE STILL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COLD...COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...COULD DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO DANGEROUS LEVELS...RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 29 BELOW ZERO. A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. $$ CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ059>061-063>066-151100- /O.CON.KALY.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE- EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER- EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD... TERRYVILLE...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC... CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS... HUDSON...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK... WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...KINGSTON... NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING... DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON 522 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 20 INCHES REPORTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. AN INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND...GUSTING AS AS HIGH 45 MPH...WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER TRAVEL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COLD COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...COULD DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO DANGEROUS LEVELS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING OR WIND PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AND IS NOT RECOMMENDED. $$
000 WWUS41 KALY 150303 WSWALY URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1003 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047-048-051-054-058-082>084-VTZ013>015- 151100- /O.CAN.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.BS.Y.0001.070215T0303Z-070215T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.WC.Y.0005.070215T0303Z-070215T1700Z/ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-WESTERN ALBANY- EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-NORTHERN FULTON- SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM- EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...ATWELL... BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD... OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE...JOHNSTOWN... AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE...SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG... WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...COBLESKILL...MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON... ESPERANCE...DUANESBURG...ALTAMONT...HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER... TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS... WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS...FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE... GREENWICH...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE...BRATTLEBORO... WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 1003 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY... ...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA SPRINGS REGION...THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...HELDERBERGS...EASTERN CATSKILL REGION...THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...AND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE SAME AREAS. THIS WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY. THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. THESE STRENGTHENING WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA OVERNIGHT...INTO MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO REDUCING VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS ADJACENT TO OPEN AREAS. ALSO...THE COMBINATION OF BRISK WINDS...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 25 OVERNIGHT...INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$ NYZ049-050-052-053-151100- /O.CAN.KALY.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.BS.Y.0001.070215T0303Z-070215T2300Z/ EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-EASTERN ALBANY- WESTERN RENSSELAER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM... BALLSTON SPA...MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALBANY...TROY 1003 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY... ...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. THESE STRENGTHENING WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA OVERNIGHT...INTO MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO REDUCING VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS ADJACENT TO OPEN AREAS. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. $$ MAZ025-NYZ061-063-151100- /O.CAN.KALY.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.BS.Y.0001.070215T0303Z-070215T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.WC.Y.0005.070215T0303Z-070215T1700Z/ SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-EASTERN COLUMBIA-WESTERN ULSTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX... HOUSATONIC...CHATHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK... WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA 1003 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND EASTERN CATSKILL REGION. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME AREA. THIS WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. THESE STRENGTHENING WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA OVERNIGHT...INTO MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO REDUCING VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS ADJACENT TO OPEN AREAS. ALSO...THE COMBINATION OF BRISK WINDS...ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF MINUS 15 TO MINUS 25 OVERNIGHT...INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$ NYZ059-060-064>066-151100- /O.CAN.KALY.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.BS.Y.0001.070215T0303Z-070215T2300Z/ EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS- EASTERN DUTCHESS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO... JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ... POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON...ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS... MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS...AMENIA...MILLERTON 1003 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR THE LOWER MID HUDSON VALLEY...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND EASTERN CATSKILL REGION. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY. THESE STRENGTHENING WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA OVERNIGHT...INTO MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO REDUCING VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY...THIS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS ADJACENT TO OPEN AREAS. A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW AROUND. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. $$ CTZ001-013-150415- /O.CAN.KALY.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070215T1100Z/ NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD... TERRYVILLE 1003 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THE STORM SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED SLEET AND SOME SNOW ACROSS THE COUNTY HAS MOVED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...AND THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$ KL/IAA
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this blizzard warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard warning went out at Feb 13, 3:45 PM EST, 13 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 13, 3:45 PM EST, 13 hours 4 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007
...HISTORIC VALENTINES DAY SNOWSTORM ON THE WAY...
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE
EAST...AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH ANOTHER STORM...LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TRACKING NORTHEAST...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS NEW AND POWERFUL STORM WILL THEN MOVE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND PRODUCE PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. ONCE THE STORM REACHES THE COAST OF
MAINE...IT WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY ON STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY. THIS WIND WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED
DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...INDEED WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A HISTORICAL SNOW EVENT. IN SOME WAYS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN RESEMBLES THAT OF THE BLIZZARD OF 1888 IN THAT TWO MAIN
PLAYERS ON THE MAP ARE HEADING FOR A UNIFICATION OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS SETUP AS THE ONE IN 88...BUT IT STILL PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.
ALSO...IN THE 1888 STORM...THE STORM GOT COMPLETELY CUTOFF AND THUS
STALLED. THUS FAR...THIS STORM DOES NOT LOOK TO DO THIS...BUT AS
STORM REALLY EXPLODES UPON REACHING THE THERMAL RIBBON ALONG THE
COAST...IT COULD PUNCH A HOLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
THE DUAL UPPER AIR JET STRUCTURE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE OUR AREA UNDERGOES
VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A NEARLY 200 KT
SUBTROPICAL JET TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEVELOPING ONE TO OUR NORTHWEST.
THE STRUCTURE DOES NOT GET MUCH BETTER LOOKING THAN THIS.
WE HAVE NOT HAD A DECENT FEBRUARY SNOWSTORM SINCE THE PRESIDENTS DAY
STORM OF 2003 AND MANY OF OUR RECENT FEBRUARYS HAVE AVERAGE WELL
BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL. THIS STORM SHOULD MORE THAN REVERSE THIS
TREND.
ALL MODELS NOW TRACK THE DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST THAN BEFORE...HUGGING THE COAST. IF THIS INDEED VERIFIES IT NOW
MEANS THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF
HUDSON VALLEY...AND LITTLE MORE SLEET MIGHT MIX IN SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALBANY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.
A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE COLD AIR AND
BE FORCED TO RISE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENTIC
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BECOME MORE VERTICAL WITH TIME...RESULTING IN
POSSIBLE CONVECTION. THE MODELS HINT THAT A GRAVITY WAVE OR TWO
COULD RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW AS THE H7 LOW SPLITS OFF FROM THE
SURFACE CYCLONE.
PER CSTAR RESEARCH...SIGNIFICANT SNOW BANDING IS LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM...WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 6/HR IN
THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSNOW IS LIKELY.
SNOW IS ALREADY FALLING ALOFT...BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE
FLAKES REACH THE GROUND. WE EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE FIRST SHOT OF REALLY HEAVY SNOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE JUST IN TIME FOR
THE MORNING DRIVE...AND WILL BE ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
STORM. THE SNOW LOOKS TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AROUND MIDDAY...AND
CHANGE/MIX TO SLEET SOUTH OF ALBANY. THEN...AS THE COASTAL STORM
TAKES OVER...WE EXPECT THE STRONGER FRONTOGENTIC FORCING TO BRING
EVEN HEAVIER SNOW BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EVEN
SOUTH...THE MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN BACK TO ALL SNOW BY
DAYS END. AND TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...THE WIND WILL KICK
UP...FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY THE AFTERNOON...THEN AS THE
WIND TURNS NORTHERLY...EVERYONE GETS IN ON THE ACT BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BLOW AND DRIFT. WE CONTEMPLATED
UPGRADING A PORTION OF OUR AREA TO A BLIZZARD WARNING...BUT SINCE
THE WINDS MIGHT NOT REACH THAT LEVEL UNTIL THE SNOW WINDS DOWN...SO
FOR NOW...DID NOT ISSUE.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL RANGE FROM A FOOT IN OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES...TO AROUND TWO FEET IN MOST AREAS. NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES...LIKE THOSE IN GREEN COUNTY COULD EXCEED THREE FEET
STORM IMPACT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TREMENDOUS...ROADS MIGHT BECOME
COMPLETELY IMPASSABLE...THERE MIGHT BE SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES AND SOME
ROOF COLLAPSES (ON WEAK STRUCTURES) MIGHT TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER...THE
SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY IN MOST AREAS AND SHOULD NOT ADD TOO
MUCH WEIGHT TO POWERLINES AND TREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AFTER THE STORM PULLS OUT
THURSDAY...WE BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR AREA ALONG
WITH MORE WIND. THE WIND WILL KICK UP ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...POSSIBLY OF HEADLINE STATUS. ALSO...WITH VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES...WIND CHILL ISSUE WILL REAR ITS UGLY HEAD AGAIN.
HOWEVER...FOR NOW...WILL NOT CONSIDER ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. THE
WINDS AND LAKE EFFECT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.
THEN...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER STORM...WHICH RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY A MISS OUT TO SEA (JUST SKIMMING US WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW)...BUT THAT SCENARIO COULD CHANGE. IRONICALLY...THIS
UPCOMING OCEAN STORM (NOT THIS ONE) IS THE STORM THAT MIGHT SIGNAL A
CHANGE FROM A +PNA/-NAO REGIME TO A -PNA/+NAO WHICH WOULD ALLOW
FINALLY FOR SOME MODIFICATION DOWN THE ROAD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY - 18Z WEDNESDAY/...A QUICK TRANSITION
EXPECTED FROM VFR TO IFR TO VLIFR WITH ONSET OF SNOW LATER TONIGHT.
P6SM BKN250 WILL GIVE WAY TO P6SM BKN150 BY 21Z THEN P6SM OVC100 BY
01Z WITH SNOW BREAKING OUT IN THE HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 04Z AND 05Z
WITH 5SM -SN BR OVC050...QUICKLY BECOMING 2SM -SN BR OVC010 AFTER
07Z AND THEN 1/4SM +SN VV002 AFTER 09Z. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY...EXCEPT KPOU WILL HAVE NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 10KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AFTER 16Z WITH SNOW TRANSITIONING TO SLEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS ARE PRESENTLY WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS WITH
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF ICE IN THE CHANNELS RAISING WATER LEVELS ONE
TO THREE FEET HIGHER THAN IF THE CHANNEL WAS CLEAR. THINGS WILL NOT
CHANGE MUCH TODAY BUT A WINTER STORM WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. SLEET IS LIKELY TO MIX WITH THE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ALL SNOW WHICH WILL HAVE NO
IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS ASIDE FROM INSULATING THE WATER
SURFACES FROM THE NEXT BLAST OF COLD AIR WHICH WILL FOLLOW AS THE
STORM EXITS FROM THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.CLIMATE...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...FEB. SNOWSTORMS IN ALBANY HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT RARE OF LATE. WE MISSED THE BIG ONE LAST YEAR.
IRONICALLY THE ALL TIME RECORD SNOWSTORM FOR FEB. CAME ON ST.
VALENTINES DAY BACK IN 1914...WHICH IS 23.5 INCHES...OUR 5TH BIGGEST
SNOWSTORM ON RECORD. THE RECORD LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY. IF THE 18Z
NAM QPF VERIFIES...LOOK OUT WE COULD RIVAL OUR
ALL-TIME SNOWSTORM...THE BLIZZARD OF 1888
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
MA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MAZ001.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MAZ025.
NY...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063-064-082>084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ065-066.
VT...HEAVY SNOW WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR VTZ013>015.
&&
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...QUINLAN
CLIMATE...HWJIV
AMENDED FIRST AND SIXTH PARAGRAPHS IN THE SHORT TERM.Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 13, 3:56 PM EST, 12 hours 53 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 356 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 MAZ001-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063-064-082>084- VTZ013>015-141200- NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY- EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER- WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA- WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- 356 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK VALLEY...GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND TACONICS IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 18 TO 36 INCHES EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY DROP TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH IN NEW YORK AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN NEW YORK AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES BECOME MORE CERTAIN ADVISORIES AND OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED. LAKE EFFECT SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS OF 4 INCHES OR MORE...ANY REPORTS OF THUNDER AND ANY MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA THE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT FORM ON THE INTERNET...NYSPIN OR TELEPHONE. CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ065-066-141215- NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE- WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS- 356 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 20 INCHES EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILL VALUES MAY DROP TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES BECOME MORE CERTAIN ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND ANY SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS OF 4 INCHES OR MORE...ANY REPORTS OF THUNDER AND ANY MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA THE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT FORM ON THE INTERNET...NYSPIN OR TELEPHONE.
Nearby
Blizzard Warnings in New York, 2007Blizzard Warnings in Vermont, 2007Blizzard Warnings in Massachusetts, 2007Every blizzard warning in 2007
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.