Snow Advisory 2, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD/VRY DRY (XTRMLY RARE TO HV SFC DWPTS AS LO AS 10 BLO ZERO F)
ACRS FA THIS AFTN. THE VRY DRY AMS WL PLAY A LRG PART IN JUST HOW
MUCH PCPN (SN) FM CLIPPER SYS DIVING THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OH (THIS
AFTN) FALLS HERE OVRNGT/ERY WED. ALSO WORKING AGAINST SYS IS DP
WLY FLO...IN COMBO W/ THE MTNS TO OUR W (WHICH WL ACT TO DRY UP
SOME OF THE PCPN AS IT MVS OVR THEM).

ATTM...WDSPRD AREA OF SN FALLING FM WRN WV TO ECNTRL IL...HEADING
ESE. BULK OF PCPN GENLY FOUND ALG/N OF THE 528 1000-500 MB THCKNS
LN...AND USING THAT RULE...WOULD PLC GREATEST THREAT (ALBIET LO)
FOR SN ACCUMS ACRS NRN 1/3RD OF FA. BOTH NAM/GFS BRK UP THE PCPN
CONSIDERABLE AFT MDNGT OVR FA AS SYS TRACKS E OF THE MTNS. QPF
XPCTD TO BE GENLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN IN...AND GIVEN
FLUFF-FACTOR (ABT 15-18 TO 1 SN RATIO)...GIVES MOST PLCS W/
ACCUMS ARND 1 IN...PSBLY 1 TO 2 IN IN HIER TERRAIN OF FLUVANNA AND
LOUISA CTYS. SOME AREAS ALG-S OF A FVX-RIC-MFV...TO THE BRDR...MAY
RECEIVE A DUSTING.

SYS QUIKLY MVS AWAY WED MRNG...LTL BIT OF MODERATION XPCTD DURG
WED AS SKY TURNS P/MSNY. TEMPS REACHING THE 30S/LWR 40S. WK SFC
HI PRES BRKS OFF FM MAIN SFC HI PRES IN CNTRL CANADA...AND MVS
THROUGH THE OH VLY WED NGT/ERY THU...INTO CNTRL MTNS BY EVE.
COLDER AGN WED NGT (LOWS DN INTO THE TEENS/LWR 20S MANY
PLCS)...THEN HI TEMPS THU ABT 2 TO 4 DEGS F COLDER THAN WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD TROUGH ALOFT TO PERSIST INVOF ERN CONUS/SE CANADA...KPG XTNDD
COLDER THAN NRML. WK SFC HI PRES SLIDES ACRS MDATLC THU NGT. WK
UPR LVL S/W IN STRNG WNWLY FLO ALOFT WISKS FM CNTRL/SRN MTNS (ERY
FRI) TO OFF THE NC CST (BY ERY SAT). BULK OF ANY PCPN XPCTD TO RMN
S OF FA AT THIS TM...MAYBE A PD OF FLURRIES NR VA/NC BRDR DURG
FRI...PSBL LGT PCPN INVOF NE NC LINGERING FRI NGT. OTRW...RMNG DRY
THU NGT THROUGH MON.

VRY COLD PTRN BEGINS TO CHG NEXT WK AS WLY FLO FM PAC BRKS DN RDG
CURRENTLY OUT W. STM SYS ON LATEST GFS/ECMWF TAKING SHAPE INVOF
CNTRL/SRN PLNS (MON)...WL HV TO BE WATCHED FARTHER E BY MID NEXT
WK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...
VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU THE FCST PRD. MSTR ASSCTD WITH QUICK MOVG S/W
NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. SO...BASICALLY WENT WITH P6SM -SN (FLURRIES) AT
RIC AFTR 05Z...4SM -SN (MVFR IN LGT SNOW) AT SBY THRU 12Z). DUE  TO
VRY DRY AIRMAS IN PLACE...CIGS REMAIN IN VFR RANGE. CLIPPER EXITS
OFFSHORE AFTR 15Z. DCRG CLDNS WITH SOME GUSTY N WNDS THRU 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TEMPORARILY DECREASING LATE THIS AFTN/EVE AS LOW LVL RIDGE
BUILDS ACRS THE WATERS...THEN PICKING UP AGAIN AS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES TNGT. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND WAVEWATCH MODEL SUGG
ANOTHER (BRIEF) PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS (FOR
WINDS AND SEAS) LIKELY BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY WED AS MODERATE LOW
LVL CAA SURGE SETS IN. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE BY EARLY WED EVE AS
THE CAA SURGE WANES BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE FOR SEAS TO COME
DOWN BLO THE 5 FT SCA CRITERIA WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT TO
MODERATE NW FLOW REGIME CONTS THRU END OF WEEK BUT MODELS SUGG
REMAINING BLO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MDZ021>025.

NC...NONE.
VA...SNOW ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR VAZ074>077.

     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VAZ048-049-063-064.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ630>633.

&&

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...44
MARINE...20

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