Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
316 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AFT CALL W/ SPC...AND BASED ON MVMNT/TRENDS OF CNVTN...HV DECIDED
TO XTND CURRENT SVR WATCH TO THE E AND S. STRNG/SVR CNVTN MVG INTO
CNTRL VA ATTM...NMRS REPORTS OF TREES DN W OF RIC W/ CURRENT LNS
OF STRMS. WL CONT TO MONITOR RDR AND WX TRENDS.

CDFNT APPROACHES AREA FM THE NW LT TNGT...WL KP POPS IN CHC MOST
PLCS THROUGH TNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SLOWING DN OF CDFNT AS IT MVS FM NW TO SE ACRS FA ON FRI...THEN
INTO ESE SXNS FRI NGT. NOT AS HOT ON FRI...DUE TO MORE CLDS AND
POSSIBLE PCPN. QPF/PCPN CVRG ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC IN THESE SITUATIONS
(W/ SSE MVG CDFNTS)...CANNOT GUARANTEE WDSPD PCPN ATTM. MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S TO ARND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF TROF ALOFT INTO THE MID ATLC STATES
PUSHES LLVL BNDRY FARTHER OFFSHR LATER SAT...WHERE IT WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO ERLY NEXT WK. COOLER/DRIER WX XPCTD THIS WKND ACRS FA.
SREFS SHOWING MUCH UNCERTAINTY W/ AMPLITUDE/MVMNT OF TROUGH ALOFT
ACRS FA BY LT WKND INTO ERY NEXT WK. CONSENSUS CONTS TO BE FOR
SFC HI PRES TO SETTLE OVR THE REGION THRU THE XTNDD PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR (LCL IFR) CIGS
AND VSBYS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFFSHORE
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY N-NE LLVL FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
FINALLY A CHANGE IN THE LGT TO MODERATE S/SW FLOW THAT HAS PERSISTED
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR MIDSUMMER DROPS THRU
MARINE AREA ON FRI AND WITH A DECENT PGRAD WINDS/SEAS MAY APPROACH
OR EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADV THRESHOLDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

TIDAL DEPARTURES MAY EXCEED 1FT ABV NORM THIS WEEKEND AS WELL AND
MAY GET EVEN HIGHER IF DEVELOPING CSTL LOW SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THEN
CURRENTLY FCST.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...25
NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...KCS
MARINE...BTC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-MDZ022>025-NCZ102-VAZ078-084>086-099-
100-201830-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-LANCASTER-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-
ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
228 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE EASTERN
SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA AND THE
NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 98 AND 103 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MDZ021-VAZ048-049-061>064-069-072>077-083-201830-
DORCHESTER-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
POWHATAN-KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-NEW KENT-
228 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE
PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA AND THE
PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ060-065>068-079>082-087>098-201830-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-PRINCE EDWARD-MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-
GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-
228 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ070-071-201830-
CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
228 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
213 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

VAZ048-049-061>064-069-071-072-074-075-191915-
CAROLINE VA-CUMBERLAND VA-ESSEX VA-FLUVANNA VA-GOOCHLAND VA-HANOVER
VA-HENRICO VA-KING WILLIAM VA-LOUISA VA-POWHATAN VA-WESTMORELAND VA-
213 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...

AT 213 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF LOUISA TO
44 MILES WEST OF CUMBERLAND...OR FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF LOUISA TO 7
MILES SOUTH OF AMHERST...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WILMINGTON AROUND 220 PM EDT...
  DIXIE AROUND 225 PM EDT...
  YANCEYVILLE AROUND 230 PM EDT...
  HADENSVILLE AROUND 235 PM EDT...
  ORCHID AROUND 240 PM EDT...
  TRENTON MILLS AROUND 245 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THESE STORMS. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER
BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS
HAVE PASSED.

25

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