Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1220 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...KEEPING A
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A CHANGE FINALLY COMES BY THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK ATTM...MADE ONLY SOME QUICK UPDATES TO
SKY GRIDS WITH LESS CLD COVER OVER SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CWA AS CLDS
MOVE OUT INTO ERY AFTN.

HAVE UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR LATER THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING...WITH
MODELS AND FORECAST SNDINGS INDICATING SCT/ISO TSTM DVLPMT OVER
PIEDMONT (ESP ALONG AND E OF I-85) ...PROPAGATING E/SE INTO NE NC
COUNTIES. CPAE IN THESE AREAS GENERALLY RUNNING AOA 2K J/KG. CUD
BE ENOUGH TO INSTIGATE SOME PULSE SVR WITH GUSTY WNDS AS PRIMARY
HAZARD (FRZ LVL AOA 14K FT). (MUCH OF AREA IN SLGT RISK THIS AFTN).
WENT WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING FOR ZFP AND DIGITAL
DATABASE...WITH PULSY NATURE OF STORMS LATER TDA. GENLY ARND 20-30
POP WL DO THE TRICK.

ZFPAKQ SENT 16Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FCST SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD THROUGH TUES...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IN OUR NW ZONES...LOW END CHANCE POPS IN OUR SE...HIGH TEMPS 90 TO
95 DEGREES. IF GFS SOLN PANS OUT...WE MAY SEE CLEARER SKIES ON WED
AS TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY. DUE TO THIS POSSIBILITY...HAVE
ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPS ON WED WITH MORE SUN...INTO THE MID TO UPR
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...A
SERIES OF S/WS PASS OVERHEAD OR TO OUR NORTH FOR THURS AND FRI SO
HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WITH MORE CLOUD
CVR AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK DOWN TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES BOTH DAYS.

FINALLY A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
PERSISTANT TROUGH OVER THE NE WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH LATE FRI/SAT IN
RESPONSE TO A MORE POTENT S/W MVG AROUND IT...AND SHOULD PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THIS FEATURE SO CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING ALTHOUGH IM
SURE TIMING WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HAVE DECIDED TO KNOCK POPS DOWN LATE SAT/SUN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TDY THRU ERLY TUE MORNG...WITH ISLTD
MVFR CONDS FOR FOG ERLY THIS MORNG AND TUE MORNG. CONTINUED
GENERALLY VFR/MVFR CONDS FOR TUE THRU FRI...WITH INCREASING CHCS FOR
SHRAS/TSRAS AND LWR CIGS ESPLY THU AND FRI DUE TO MOIST SSW FLO AND
APPROACH OF FRNTL BNDRY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES FOR TDY THRU TUE NGT...WITH SSW WNDS 15 KT OR LESS AND
WAVES 1 TO 2 FT AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...DUE TO FLO ARND BERMUDA HI PRES.
NO REAL CHANGE IN THE WNDS UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE FRI WHEN COLD FRNT
SLIDES INTO THE REGION FM THE W. SEAS MAY COME UP MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK...ESPLY NRN CSTL WTRS DUE TO PERSISTENT SSW WNDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...JYM
LONG TERM...JYM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-
VAZ048-049-060>100-171000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-FLUVANNA-LOUISA-
PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-MECKLENBURG-
LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-
MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-
SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
119 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...FURTHER INCREASING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

05

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
159 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

VAZ049-161900-
LOUISA VA-
159 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHWEST LOUISA COUNTY...

AT 159 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL ALBEMARLE COUNTY...OR ABOUT 17
MILES NORTH OF PALMYRA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR WALDROP AT 215 PM EDT...BOSWELLS TAVERN AT
220 PM EDT...GREEN SPRINGS AT 235 PM EDT...TREVILIANS AT 245 PM
EDT...VAWTER CORNER AT 255 PM EDT.

IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR
AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS.

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

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