Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
733 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO NEAR THE BORDER OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...THEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY SATURDAY. IT
WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE
HIGH WILL BE OFF THE COAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX FOR THE TNGT PERIOD BASED UPON
CURRENT TRENDS. WILL BE LOWERING POPS MORE QUICKLY IN THE NRN
CWA...WITH NO PRECIP IN THIS AREA AFTER 09Z OR SO. HAVE ALSO
ENLARGED THE AREA OF LKLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED DVLPMT NEXT
1-3 HOURS ACROSS CNTRL VA. THIS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE TIDEWATER/NE NC OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY WL LINGER INVOF NE NC THROUGH SAT...W/ CONTD HI CHC
POPS. XTSV CLDNS BEHIND FNT TDA...SUGGS PSBLTY OF THAT OCCURRING
FARTHER S OVR FA DURG SAT...SO WL BE SLO TO GO W/ ANY SGFNT CLRG
(ESP ACRS CNTRL/SRN VA). LO CHC POPS TO LINGER SAT EVE...B4
SUFFICIENT XPCTD TO FINALLY TAKE HOLD. SFC HI PRES RMNS NNW OF FA
DURG SUN...MDLS SUGG PTNTL FOR CU DVLPMNT ACRS MUCH OF THE FA...WL
GO PSNY. TEMPS THRUT THE WKND AVGG NR/BLO NRML...LWR/MID 80S (70S
CST) SAT...SAT NGT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...RDGS SUN RISING BACK
INTO THE 70S/LWR 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HI PRES WITH DRIER AIR (MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPS) CONTS TO BLD DWN
INTO THE AREA FOR SUN NGT INTO TUE. THE HI THEN SLIDES OFFSHR FOR
LATER TUE THRU THU. RETURN FLO FM THE SSW BY MID NEXT WEEK BRINGS
MUCH WRMR AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WED AND THU (SOME CONCERN
ABT AREA OF CNVTN BRUSHING AT LEAST NRN SXNS UPON ARRIVAL OF THE
WRMR AIR WED). CONSENSUS IS FOR THE NEXT CDFNT TO REACH THE AREA
NEXT FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWS MOST TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS NE NC AND SE VA WHERE SVR
TSTM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM EDT...ALTHOUGH SCT SHRAS/TSTMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL VA ATTM. HAVE CB WITH SHWRS AT MOST
SITES AND WILL AMEND IF TSTM THREATENS. LOOKING FOR SHRAS/FOG
OVRNGT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDS (LCL LIFR POSSIBLE) AFTER
04Z. WL CONT WITH IDEA THAT LOWER CIGS/VSBYS (MAINLY MVFR/IFR)
WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SAT MORNING ACROSS THE TERMINALS BEHIND
THE SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE MOST PART THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REGAINS CONTROL OVER THE FCST AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
FEW CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. WILL NOT BE RAISING
HEADLINES...THOUGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...MARINE
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS ARE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE FOR LATE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVENING HRS.

WENT WITH NAM/GFS MODEL MATCH GUIDANCE BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. AFTER CD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AREA...POST FRONTAL SURGE
LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL SO AS TO NOT XPECT WINDS EXCEEDING SCA CRITERIA.
AGREE WITH PREV FORECAST ASSESMENT THAT TYPICAL MODEL HANDLING OF
NRLY WINDS IS WEAK...SO HAVE CONTINUED INCREASGIN WINDS LATE THIS
WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NWS/AKQ
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...CY/MAM
MARINE...SMF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
153 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>086-088>091-094-099-100-301800-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-SUSSEX-SURRY-
JAMES CITY-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
153 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ087-092-093-095>098-301800-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-GREENSVILLE-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-
153 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. PLEASE FORWARD ALL REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ANZ630>632-650-652-654-301800-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
153 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ633-656-658-301800-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
153 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. PLEASE FORWARD ALL REPORTS OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

05

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