Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
331 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SLOWS
DOWN AS IT NEARS THE BORDER OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. IT
WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SCTD T POPPING FOR AREAS W OF I95 ATTM. WL KP T FOR ALL OF FA
THROUGH THE EVE HRS...HIEST POPS GENLY ALG-W OF I95. SLO MVMNT
INCRSS PTNTL FOR LCLLY VRY HVY RA (2-3 IN SHORT PD). OTRW...RMNG
VRY WRM AS TEMPS SLO FALL FM THE 90S...THROUGH 80S. LTR TNGT...WL
HV PTCHY FG/HZ...LO TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LWR/MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE MR HOT/MOD HUMID DAY THU W/ PREVAILING LLVL FLO CONTG FM THE
SSW. HI TEMPS TAKE A RUN AT THE LWR/MID 90S IN MANY SPOTS (A FEW
UPR 90S INTR VA?)...EVEN THE BCHS. MNWHL...CDFNT (WHICH CURRENTLY
RUNS FM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO KS) BEGINS TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS
SE...BCMG STRETCHED FM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO MID MS VLY BY THU EVE.
THE FNT WL BE A FOCUS FOR A LRG/WDSPRD ZN OF SHRAS/T. ARND
HERE...POPS RMN NR CLIMO LVLS (20-30%) FOR AFTN/EVE HRS.

FNTL BNDRY ENTERS FAR NRN AREAS OF FA AFT MDNGT THU NGT...AND
CONTS TO SAG S THRUT FA...INTO SRN VA FRI EVE. WL HV LIKELY (60%)
POPS NRN/CNTRL AREAS OF FA DURG FRI...TRENDING TO 30-40% ACRS XTRM
SRN VA/NE NC. MDLS INDCTG AXIS OF NR 2 PWS ACRS FA FRI
AFTN/EVE...LEADING TO PTNTL FOR HVY RA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY CONTS TO SLOLY SETTLE S ACRS SRN AREAS OF FA FRI
NGT...AND LINGERS OVR THE SE PORTION OF FA DURG MUCH OF SAT. WL HV
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS FRI NGT...AND THERE WL BE CONTD PTNTL FOR
MOD/HVY RA. AS IS CASE THIS TM OF YR...FNTL BNDRY WL HANG ARND
THROUGH SAT AFTN/EVE OVR SE VA/NE NC...ANY CLRG N OF THE BNDRY MAY
BE SLO AS WELL. WL KP MUCH OF THE FA MCLDY...W/ TEMPS COOLER
(GENLY FM THE 70S TO LWR 80S).

MID/UPR LVL TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACRS RGN SAT NGT...AND IS
SUFFICIENTLY STRNG ENUF TO PUSH FNT E AND S OF FA. SUN TURNS OUT
TO BE DRY/COMFY...W/ NR-SLGTLY BLO NRML TEMPS. SFC HI PRES
BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH ERY NEXT WK...THEN OFFSHR BY LT TUE/TUE
NGT. RETURN FLO THE FM THE SSW MID NEXT WK BRINGS MUCH WRMR AIR
BACK INTO THE RGN (WED)...90S?? FOR THE 4TH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
S-SW FLOW OVER THE CWA MAY KEEP STORMS PREDOMINATELY WEST OF
I95...BUT SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION PSBL FOR OTHER
LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING. UPPER AIR PROFILE INDICATES MOST
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVG...SO EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IF ANY
OCCUR OVER TAF SITES. EXPECT CLEARING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION WHERE PRECIP OCCURS. PATTERN LOOKS MUCH THE
SAME FOR THU BUT COLD FRONT WEST OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL START TO
APPROACH MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THU INTO FRI. INCREASING CHC OF
TSTM ACTIVITY THU AND EARLY FRI. HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT A SURGE
TONIGHT AND HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS JUST BELOW SCA. WL STILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR UPDATES IN CASE THINGS CHANGE. AT ANY
RATE WILL LIKELY HAVE SIMILAR CONDITONS THROUGH LATE TOMORROW. SEAS
XPCTD TO LINGER BETWEEN 3 AND 4 FEET THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FNTL
BNDRY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WFA
NEAR TERM...WFA
SHORT TERM...WFA
LONG TERM...WFA
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...KLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>086-088>091-094-099-100-280745-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-SUSSEX-SURRY-
JAMES CITY-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
340 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 DEGREES EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL...POSSIBLE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-280745-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-
340 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY...SLOWING AS
IT MOVES NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ087-092-093-095>098-280745-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-GREENSVILLE-
SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-
340 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 DEGREES EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SLOW
AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE BORDER OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA.
HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THESE STORMS. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVER THE
TIDEWATER REGION AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO THE SLOW
NATURE OF THE FRONT AND INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVING OVER THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MCNATT

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