Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
408 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND WILL
DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP AGAIN OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCTD SHRAS/TSRAS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN JUST TO THE NW AND W OF OUR
CWA ALNG SFC TROF/CONVERGENCE BNDRY. MAIN COLD FRNT WAS STILL
LAYING ACRS EXTRM SRN PA. ISLTD OR SCTD SHRAS/TSRAS WILL MOVE INTO
OR DEVELOP OVR OUR NRN CNTIES THRU THE ERLY MORNG HRS. ANY STRNGER
STORMS CUD PRODUCE GUSTY WNDS OR SML HAIL. OTHRWISE...MSTLY CLR OR
PRTLY CLDY TNGT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO UPR 60S. THE MAIN
FRNT SHUD DROP THRU AT LEAST HALF OF THE CWA BY TUE MORNG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRNT WILL SINK S OF THE NE NC ZNS BEFORE NOON TUE...THEN
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TUE NGT AS UA RDG/SFC HI PRES BLDS BACK OVR
THE AREA. KEPT SLGT OR SML CHC FOR PCPN TUE AFTN AND EVENG IN
CNTRL/WRN CNTIES DUE TO SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH
DISSIPATING FRNT. MAX TEMPS NOT AS WRM ON TUE DUE TO ONSHR
FLO...ESPLY ERN CNTIES. HI PRES RIGHT ALNG THE CST WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER WRM DAY UNDR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SLGT OR SML CHC FOR SHRA
OR TSRA IN THE AFTN AND EVENG MAINLY W OF I95.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HI PRES OFF THE MID ATLC/SE CST SHUD MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY
AND VRY WRM WX THRU FRI OUTSIDE OF ISLTD CONVECTION IN NW CNTIES.
INCREASED CHCS FOR SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL COME TO THE ENTIRE AREA
SUN THRU MON AS A COUPLE OF BNDRIES SWING ACRS THE REGION FM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HOT AND MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MAINLY HIGH CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION.
RADAR INDICATING SOME SCATTERED STORMS BEGINNING TO FORM IN THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT AND SW VIRGINIA. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS
REACHING ANY OF OUR TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MOST LIKELY WOULD BE RIC. WEAK BNDRY WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHIFTING SFC WINDS TO N-NE BY MORNING.
MORE VFR FOR TUE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER. ISOLATED TSMTS AGAIN ON
TUE...OTW NO SIGNIFICANT WX THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO SLACKEN OVER THE MID ATLC WATERS THIS AFTN...
GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS ATTM WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STRONG DIURNAL STABILITY OVER WATER. PREDOMINANT S-SW FLOW (WITH
ONSHORE COMPONENT ALONG THE COASTS) WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO N-NE
WINDS AS THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS S TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS COULD ACCELERATE THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT...
ESPECIALLY OVER NRN PTNS OF THE BAY AND CSTL WATERS. NRLY SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WITH MINIMAL COOL ADVECTION
NOTED IN THE LOW LEVELS (1000-850 MB) PER BOTH THE GFS AND NAM.
STILL NOT EXPECTING WINDS/WAVES TO EXCEED SCA CRITERIA...SO HEADLINES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS (30-40 KTS) THIS
EVENING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...BKH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
551 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

ANZ656-VAZ065-066-079-087-088-092-093-095>098-291000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-BRUNSWICK-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SOUTHAMPTON-
ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
551 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ630>632-650-652-654-MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>064-067>078-080>086-
089>091-094-099-100-291000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-
MATHEWS-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-ACCOMACK-
NORTHAMPTON VA-
551 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF
VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF
VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANZ633-658-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-291000-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
551 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BROWN

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