Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
401 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BEFORE STALLING OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CONTROL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SATL SHOWING THAT ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/LOW CLOUD BANK
HAS LIFTED TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH WARM FRONT NOW
ALIGNED ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE
NRN ZONES (CHC RANGE/LKLY IN MD FOR EVENG)...WITH SCHC TSTMS
POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MAY EVEN SEE SOME HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS W/ SOME OF THE TSTMS BUT MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY
MARGINAL SO WDSPRD SVR APPEARS UNLIKELY. ISENTRPIC LIFT LLOKS TO
DRIFT FARTHER NORTH OVERNGT/MON MRNG SO HAVE POPS DROPPING OFF
SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNGT AND ERLY MON MRNG. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
UPPER 60S/LWR 70S. FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS ERN SHORE AFTER MIDNGT
BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF ZFP AT THIS PT UNTIL EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH
THE FRONT PROGRESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DETERMINING FRONTAL POSITION HAS PROVED TO BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST
CHALLENGE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEANED TWDS THE GFS SOLN AS
IT HAS MORE SUPPORT FROM UKMET/ECMWF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM
DAY FOR BULK OF THE CWA IN WARM SECTOR MONDAY...HIGHS INTO MID
90S SOUTH....UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S CNTRL. MEANWHILE THE ERN SHORE/FAR
NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE BNDRY WILL HAVE MORE CLOUDINESS AND
AS A RESULT STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 80S. WAVE OF MID LVL ENERGY
WILL TRACK ESE THROUGH PA/NJ MON AFTN...FORCING THE BNDRY TO
BUCKLE...AND PUSH BACK SOUTHWARD AS A BACKDOOR FRONT. JUST HOW FAR
THIS GETS WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE FCST. HAVE SIDED WITH COOLER MAV
GDNC FOR HIGHS TUE...ELY FLOW OVERSPREADING NRN 3/4 OF THE CWA.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A CONTINUED LARGE TEMP GRADIENT FROM SW TO NE.
HIGHER POPS AGAIN RESIDE ACRS NRN ZONES...BUT ALL AREAS HAVE A CHC
FOR SHWRS/TSTMS (MORE STABLE NE SO HAVE REMOVED TSTMS UP THAT WAY).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PERSISTENT MID
LEVEL RIDGE ACRS GULF COAST STATES...GRADUALLY BUILDING BACK TWDS
MID ATLC. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NJ TO NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL RETREAT FARTHER NE. HAVE TRENDED FCST TO BECOME DRIER
AND WARMER WITH EACH DAY...CHC POPS WED...THEN ONLY SCHC MAINLY DURING
AFTN/EVENG THU INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO 90S
FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA FRI THROUGH SUNDAY.

TUE AND WED...MID ATLC REMAINS IN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACRS NEW
ENGLAND...AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACRS SC/GA. GFS/ECMWF MEAN
POSITION OF SFC TROUGH/STATIONARY FRONT IS ACRS NRN PORTION OF THE
CWA BOTH DAYS. HAVE CHC POPS NORTH...SCHC SOUTH BOTH DAYS. TEMPS
AGAIN MUCH COOLER ACRS NE ZONES.

FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT FARTHER NORTH LATE WED...AND FOR PERIOD THU THROUGH
SAT HAVE GONE WITH JUST 20% DIURNAL TSTMS (OR LESS) AND HIGHER
TEMPS MAINLY BACK INTO THE 90S CWA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SC CLOUD DECK AND ASSCTD -RA MOVG SE FROM DC AREA THIS AM...ALTHOUGH
ECHOES HAVE BEEN WEAKENING. DESPITE THIS...DECIDED TO ADD A 2 HR
TEMPO PRD FOR -RA THIS AM AT SBY. GAVE RIC MORE CLOUDS NXT FEW HRS
AS WELL. MODELS CONT THE WETTER TREND AT SBY TONITE...SO TRENDED
THE SBY TAF MORE PESSIMISTIC WRT CLOUD COVER/VSBY IN -RA AT SBY
(MVFR RANGE). RIC MAY SEE BKN SC DECK...BUT LTL IN WAY OF PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
WNDS SLOWLY INCRG PAST HR OR SO. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR PSBL
SCA ACROSS CURRITUCK SND THIS AFTRN. OTW...VRY CHALLENGING FCST
THIS AM AS INCRG WNDS AND SEAS WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS AS
VARIOUS TIMES ACROSS MARINE AREA FOR THE NXT SVRL DAYS. ALL MODELS
NOW INCRS S-SE FLOW (BTWN 15-20 KTS) OVR CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.
SO..IN COORD WITH LWX...HAVE HOISTED SCAS FOR CHES BAY THRU ERLY
EVE. GRDNT SLOWER TO INCRS ACROSS CURRITUCK SND... SO HELD BACK ON
SCA THERE UNTIL AFTR MIDNITE...BUT CONT IT THRU MOST OF MON.
BUFKIT SHOWNG GUST PTNTL UP TO 25 KTS ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS AFTR
MIDNITE TONITE AS WELL AS INCRG SEAS TO 5 FT. SO...IN COORD WITH
PHL...HAVE HOISTED SCA FOR MD CSTL WTRS LATE TONITE THRU MON.
ENDED FLAGS MON AFTRN AS FIRST EVENT ENDS. NXT EVENT WILL BE NRLY
SURGE BEHIND FRNT LATE MON AFTRN. WILL NOT HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT
ATTM (AS IT WILL PRBLY LEAD TO SOME CONFUSION AS TO JUST WHEN
SCAS END AND BEGIN). WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE THIS. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY THAT ANTHR 4-6 HR NRLY SURGE XPCTD DOWN CHES BAY LATER
MON...BUT CONFIDENCE RTHR LOW ATTM AS TO THE EXACT HRS THIS
OCCURS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ630-631.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BROWN
NEAR TERM...BROWN
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...KCS
MARINE...25

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>