Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
254 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO
THIS EVENING...BEFORE STALLING TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK
NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VIS SAT/RAMSDIS WV IMAGERY SHOWS MCS ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL
BNDRY OVER IN/OH...WITH OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTING FRONT
SNAKING INTO CENTRAL VA AND BACK NE INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. MEANWHILE...1020MB
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

SHIELD OF EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER PUSHING INTO NORTHWESTERN CWA ATTM.
MOISTURE/CLDS FROM OH VLY CONVECTION WL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE
REGION...WITH SCT SHRA/TSRAS CURRENTLY OVER AND NW OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MTNS PUSHING INTO THE AREA (ESP OVER EASTERN SHORE AND
NORTHERN NECK) AS AFTN PROGRESSES.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY...WITH SOME DECENT LIFT OVER EASTERN THIRD OF THE
REGION...WITH SBCAPE >2000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA. WITH STRENGTHENING
NW FLOW ALOFT...THIS MAY JUST BE ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF SOME STRONG
STORMS THIS AFTN. ACRS COASTAL ZNS...STORMS COULD EASILY FIRE ALONG
SEABRZ BNDRY...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS ALSO AIDING CONVECTION.
BULK SHEAR NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT AT 35-35 KTS...COULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MARGINAL WIND GUST/HAIL THREATS.

IN ANY CASE...AGAIN EXPECT SVR THREAT TO DIMINISH QUICKLY ARND
SUNSET TNGT. USED A MET/FWC BLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT GENLY LOW-MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS S/W EXITS THE AREA...UPR LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CONTS TO BUILD INTO THE SE
U.S. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE FRNTL BNDRY WILL SLOWLY PUSH BACK
TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRNT. CANNOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY MAY SEE SOME SCT
SHRA/TSRA MON AFTN UP NORTH AGAIN HOWEVER...AND HAVE LOW-END
CHANCE POPS UP THERE FOR NOW. TEMPS ON MON AFTN WILL BE ABT A
CATEGORY OR SO WARMER THAN TODAY WITH SOME CLOUDS HANGING
AROUND...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 90S AREA WIDE (WITH SOME UPR 90S
POSSIBLE OVR SOUTHERN TIER OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT APPEARS AS IF LONG TERM WL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS...COURTESY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MID/UPR LVL
RIDGING. BY TUES...THE HIGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SE AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY TSTM ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TSRA
OR TWO. AGAIN...MAIN CONCERN IN THE WK AHEAD IS THE HEAT (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). LOOKING FOR HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO UPR 90S FOR
TUES AFTN. WED LKS AS HOT...IF NOT HOTTER. MEX GUIDANCE HAD BACKED
OFF ON HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...BUT 12Z/AUG05 MEXMOS HAS ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCED HIGHS >100 DEGREES AT RIC/PTB TUES-THU. THIS WOULD EQUATE
TO BORDERLINE HEAT ADVY CRIT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

WHILE NOT QUITE GOING THAT FAR ATTM (WILL WAIT TO SEE IF NEXT RUN
CAN DUPLICATE THIS VRY WARM SOLN)...WL GO AHEAD AND KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPR 90S TUE... AND ARND THE CENTURY MARK FOR WED. AS
STATED BY PRVS SHIFT...BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE WL BE IN HOW STRONG
THE HIGH ENDS UP BEING OVER THE SE. IF THE HIGH IS WEAKER (AS 00Z
RUN ASSERTS)...WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAKE IT
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS (AS LATEST GFS
ASSERTS)...THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOLN IS QUITE FEASIBLE. AS IT
IS...WL GO WITH THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW AND LOWER TEMPS BACK
TWDS NORMAL FOR THURS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK IN EXPECTATION OF
BACKDOOR FRNT IMPACTING THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND SE VA THIS AFTERNOON.  MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDS FOR FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDS FOR
LATER MON THRU WED...AS HI PRES ALOFT BLDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER
BACKDOOR FRNT CUD BRING LWR CIGS/VSBYS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE FCST AREA WILL BE GETTING BACK INTO THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SE/SW FLOW REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS STALLED BNDRY
ACRS SOUTHERN CHES BAY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH LATER TNGT AND ON MON.
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KTS. ANTHR BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THRU MID ATLC REGION WED NIGHT/THU BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS THAT IT
WILL STALL NORTH OF AKQ MARINE FCST AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE (8/7) THRU THU (8/9).

RIC

8/7...106, 1918
8/8...100, 1977
8/9...101, 1930

ORF

8/7...105, 1918
8/8...99, 1977
8/9...100, 1930

SBY

8/7...106, 1918
8/8...99, 1930
8/9...102, 1930

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...KCS
MARINE...BTC
CLIMATE...MAM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
352 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

ANZ630-631-650-652-MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>064-067>078-080>086-090-
091-094-099-100-060800-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-
NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM-
KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-
DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-
MATHEWS-JAMES CITY-YORK-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
352 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND...CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE
EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF VIRGINIA...THE
NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND
THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ632-633-654-656-658-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-066-079-087>089-
092-093-095>098-060800-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-
INLAND CURRITUCK-BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-BRUNSWICK-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-SOUTHAMPTON-
ISLE OF WIGHT-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-
352 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...COASTAL
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...THE
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MCNATT

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