Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG IT. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SAGS SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR TSTRM WATCH 556 CONTS THRU 8 PM...THOUGH NOTHING HAS FORMED ACROSS
THAT AREA AS OF THIS WRITING. SCT TRW HAVE DVLPD ALONG C-BREEZE BNDRY
ACROSS ERN SHORE AS WELL AS MSTR BNDRY (SEEN ON H20 VPR LOOP) FROM
NRN NECK SW TOWARD I85. THESE GNRLY PULSE TYPE STORMS WHICH SHUD CONT
FOR NXT FEW HRS. CONVECTION APPRCHG FROM NW SHUD MOVE INTO WATCH AREA
AFTR 5 PM. ALL THIS GENERATED BY TMPS BTWN 90-95 ATTM. XPCT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY TO DSPT AFTR SS...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE SLGHT CHC POPS THRU
OVRNITE HRS AS TSCTNS SHOW AMPL MSTR ARND. LOWS U60S- L70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MOTS SAT AS DYTME HTNG ACTS ON LEFT OVR BNDRYS ACROSS FA. ALTHOUGH
RGN NOT OUTLOOKED IN DY2...SITN MAY MIMIC TDY SPCLLY IF TMPS REACH
BTWN 90-95 ONCE AGAIN. THREAT WUD BE FOR MORE PULSE TYPE STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRNTL BNDRY ENTERS MID ATLNTC RGN SUN THEN STALLS AS LOW PRESSURE
DVLPS THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS E-NE ALONG IT. THUS...SUNDAY THRU MON
APPEAR TO BE BEST CHC FOR WDSPRD PCPN ACROSS THE AREA IN QUITE A
WHILE. TMPS HELD BTWN 80-85 DUE TO XTNSVE CLOUD COVER AND POPS.
S/W MOVES OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST LATE MON ALLOWING BNDRY TO SAG
S INTO NC AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO LWR GT LAKES RGN. LOW CONFIDENCE
FCST FOR MID WEEK PRD AS DRY AIR TO THE W WILL BE BUCKING UP AGAINST
A MOIST E-NE FLOW IVOF OLD FRNTL BNDRY THAT GETS HUNG UP ALONG GULF
STREAM WALL. PCPN A CHALLENGE AS WELL. DECIDED TO CUT BACK POPS TUE
AND WED ACROSS MOST OF FA...XCPTN BEING LOW CHC OVR SERN AND CSTL
AREAS WHICH WUD BE CLOSER TO THE BNDRY. TMPS REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIRMASS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO EXPECT ISOLATED
SCATTERED TSTMS THRU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT SE-SW WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG AT SBY OVERNIGHT. WARM AND HUMID FOR SAT AS COLD
FRONT IS SLOW TO APPROACH REGION. SO THREAT OF MORE TSTMS ON SAT. FROPA
PSBL ON SUN OR EARLY MON. MAINLY VFR CONDS DURING PERIOD EXPECT IN PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...
E-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE REGION. LOOK FOR
A FEW ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
PICK UP SOME DURING THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRES APPROACHES THE MID ATLC
COAST BUT SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS EXPECTED TO CONT. CHCS FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE N/NE BUT MAINTAINING LIGHT/OCNL MODERATE SPEEDS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...CCW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

ANZ630>633-650-652-654-656-658-MDZ022>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-
VAZ062-063-065>100-281745-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT TO WINDMILL POINT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM WINDMILL POINT TO NEW POINT COMFORT VA-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY VA-
CURRITUCK SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND DE TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VA TO NC VA BORDER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM NC VA BORDER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NC OUT
20 NM-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-
NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-PASQUOTANK-CAMDEN-INLAND CURRITUCK-
BERTIE-CHOWAN-PERQUIMANS-OUTER BANKS CURRITUCK-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-
MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-POWHATAN-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-
KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-
NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-
CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS-GREENSVILLE-
SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-
NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK-CHESAPEAKE-
VIRGINIA BEACH-ACCOMACK-NORTHAMPTON VA-
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE
BAY...THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...CURRITUCK SOUND...THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF
MARYLAND...COASTAL NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...INTERIOR NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...EAST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH HAMPTON ROADS
VIRGINIA...THE EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA...THE MIDDLE PENINSULA OF
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN NECK OF VIRGINIA...THE PENINSULA OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

VAZ048-049-060-061-064-281745-
FLUVANNA-LOUISA-PRINCE EDWARD-CUMBERLAND-CAROLINE-
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND THE
PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

VAZ084-090-091-272030-
GLOUCESTER VA-JAMES CITY VA-YORK VA-
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER JAMES CITY COUNTY...MOVING TOWARDS YORK
AND GLOUCESTER COUNTIES...

AT 328 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR OAKTREE AT 335 PM EDT...CAMP PEARY
AT 340 PM EDT...WATER COUNTRY U.S.A. AT 345 PM EDT...U.S. NAVAL
WEAPONS STATION AT 355 PM EDT...WICOMICO AT 400 PM EDT...GLOUCESTER
POINT AT 405 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
EXPECTED IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. MOVE INTO A SAFE SHELTER BEFORE THESE STORMS REACH YOUR
AREA. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

FOSTER

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