Wind Advisory 7, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 012149
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
149 PM ADT MON OCT 1 2007


AKZ027-012300-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-071002T0000Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
149 PM ADT MON OCT 1 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

PSS

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
630 AM ADT MON OCT 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO THE
NE GULF NEAR CAPE FAIRWEATHER BY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN AND
DRIFT WNW ALONG THE COAST AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW FURTHER W BY
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
THRU THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UPPER TROF WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE GULF TONIGHT AS FAIRLY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
AREA WITH H5 TEMPS AOB -30C LIKELY BY THEN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS AND THE CHANCES FOR TSTMS. AS
FOR THE WIND...STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ON S SIDE OF THE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE
CASE AS IT MOVES TO THE NE GULF. WILL PROBABLY SEE WINDS AROUND
30 KT ON S SIDE OF LOW THRU THIS EVENING...BEFORE WEAKENING LATER
TONIGHT AS LOW WEAKENS. THE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD PEAK AROUND
25 KT...BUT LOCALLY STRONGER OVER SRN INNER CHANNELS TODAY. WINDS
WILL DROP SOME (5-10 KT) IN MOST INNER CHANNEL AREAS AFTER FROPA
BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS FOR THE TSTM THREAT...H5 COLD POOL WILL EDGE INTO THE
E-CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH H5 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND -28C THIS AFTERNOON
OVER E-CENTRAL GULF THEN AOB -30C MOST AREAS TONIGHT. THINK SOME
LATE AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALONG THE CENTRAL
COAST AS FAIRLY STRONG VORT MAX MOVES INTO THAT AREA...THEN THE
TSTM THREAT SHOULD SPREAD TO THE SRN COAST THIS EVENING AS COLDER
AIR ALOFT REACHES THEM. WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF TSTMS LIMITED TO
THE CENTRAL AND SRN COAST AND ADJACENT MARINE WATERS THRU THE
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE PAYA AREA FOR A THREAT OF THUNDER
LATE TONIGHT ONCE LOW MOVES W OF THEM...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT
OUT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING. WILL KEEP WORDING SIMPLE TONIGHT AND JUST MENTION
SHOWERS...EVEN THOUGH THE VERY EARLY PART OF TONIGHT MAY STILL BE
STRATIFORM OVER THE FAR ERN/NRN AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY
TONIGHT...AS THEY WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IT IS WINDY AND WHERE MORE
CLOUD BREAKS MAY OCCUR. AT THIS POINT...WITH 10+ KT WINDS LIKELY
TO AFFECT MOST PLACES TONIGHT...WILL KEEP THEM UP IN THE
LOWER-MID 40S. ANY LIGHT WIND/SIGNIFICANT CLOUD BREAKS IN ANY
GIVEN LOCATION COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL WELL INTO THE 30S
THOUGH.

.LONG RANGE...A COMPLEX MULTI CENTERED 990 MB LOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...SOUTHEAST ALASKA...AND SOUTHERN YUKON
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FINALLY
DROP SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WITH THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE (-30C) AND WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE.
A MODERATE WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF THAT WEAKENS
AS IT REACHES COAST SO EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA TUE-WED. AS LOW STARTS TO DROP SE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM THE NW AND SHOULD DRY OUT THE ENTIRE NORTH
HALF BY EARLY THURSDAY. WITH THE CLEARING ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG AND FROST IN MANY AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT AS COLD.

WILL GO WITH A TRANSITION DAY ON THURSDAY AS WEAK WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO AND DISSIPATES ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF WHILE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. KEPT
POPS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT FOR ALL BIT WESTERN PORTION OF ZONE 17
AND EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY.

NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF IS STRONGER AND POTENTIALLY
FIRST STORM OF YEAR AS IT DEEPENS FROM 985 MB IN SW GULF TO 975
MB OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
OCCLUSION MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY AND WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTS A 65
KT COASTAL BARRIER JET WILL DEVELOP STORMS AHEAD OFF THE FRONT IN
OUR COASTAL WATERS. THIS CARRIES OVER TO THE SOUTHERN INSIDE
WHERE GALES AREA EXPECTED. COULD NEED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL WITH THIS ONE AND ADVISORY FOR INNER
CHANNELS. THIS LOW WEAKENS AS IT RE-DEVELOPS INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
YUKON WITH RESIDUAL LOW IN NE GULF DUMBBELLS SE ALONG THE COAST.
THIS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUN-MON.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SCA...PKZ022-033-036-041>043-051-052

RWT/MM