Wind Advisory 45, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 282039
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1139 AM AST FRI DEC 28 2007


AKZ018-282145-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0045.000000T0000Z-071228T2100Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1139 AM AST FRI DEC 28 2007

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AST TODAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON AST TODAY. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST THU DEC 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...PARENT LOW IS AT NE AK PEN AND IS COMPLEX WITH AT
LEAST TWO LOWS AT ABT 978 MB.  MATURE OCCLUSION THAT EXTENEDED
ESE FROM OVER SEWARD LAST NIGHT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE IN STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND IS LEAVING A TRAIL OF DIFFUSE WEAK
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLFALSK.  995 MB LOW 200 NM SW OF
KETCHIKAN WAS A ZONALLY TRACKING FEATURE THAT TURNED NE AND
SLOWED DOWN SINCE 12Z.

NAM USED THORUGH TONIGHT...NOTE IT SEEMS TO HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB
ON LOW ABOUT 200 NM SW OF KETCHIKAN.  SHIP WCY7052 WAS ROUGHLY
60 NM S OF THE LOW AT 18Z AND HAD 998 MB WITH 30 KT WIND SO
CENTRAL PRES SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 995.  THE FRONT THAT WILL BE
IN THE PNHDL DAYTIME FRIDAY FRI SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER MODEL
AGREEMENT THAN USUAL...SO AVN AND NAM MIX WILL BE USED.  GFS
WILL BE USED AS PRIME GUIDANCE BGNG ABT 00Z SAT.

STRONG PRES GRAD ON S SIDE OF COMPLEX LOW AT AK PEN HAS PROVIDED
A LONG FETCH FOR WINDS THAT RAISED THE SEA STATE AT BUOY 46066
TO 34 FEET AT 12Z.  NOTE THE HIGH SEA STATES IN THE MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS...THEY WILL HAVE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE NEW FCST PKG.

.LONG RANGE...MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS GOOD THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE MAJOR FEATURE BEING A LARGE UPPER LOW SWINGING
FIRST SOUTHEAST FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND
THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. BEHIND THIS LOW...AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVES EAST BUT LOSES ITS STRENGTH AS IT UNDER
CUTS THE UPPER LOW AS WELL AS IN RESPONSE TO DECREASING POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES FURTHER SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE...CORRESPONDINGLY
GOOD AGREEMENT INSOFAR AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEPICTING A PARENT
SURFACE LOW AND RELATED SHORT WEAVE TROUGHS IN THE GULF THROUGH
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG LOW IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF LATE
TUESDAY. BY THE END OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT A STRONG LOW WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY ECMWF IS MORE SOUTHERLY AND DEEPER WITH THIS
LOW. BELIEVE THIS TO BE THE MORE PROBABLE SOLUTION BASED ON
EXPECTED LA NINA SEASONAL PATTERNS. NO CLEARLY LEADING MODEL WITH
REGARD TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND HEIGHT PATTERNS AS ALL ARE CLOSE
TO THE SATELLITE DATA WIND PLOTS. ECMWF HAS A SLIGHT EDGE OVER
GFS IN ITS DEPICTION OF UPPER LEVEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
BOTH ARE NOTICEABLE BETTER THAN UKMET FOR THIS MODEL RUN. WILL BE
USING ECMWF AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST
TODAY.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NOTE UPDATED NPW AS OF 11AM OR 20Z...THRFTR
         WIND ADVISORY AKZ022 AND 027-028 TIL 6 PM
         WIND ADVISORY AKZ018-019 6 PM TIL 6 AM
MARINE...GALE PKZ041-052 AND 310
         SMCR ELSWHERE

JBT/FCF