Wind Advisory 36, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 050537
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
837 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

AKZ018-050900-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-071205T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
837 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 050729
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1029 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

AKZ018-050830-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-071205T0900Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1029 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST TUE DEC 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER
NORTHWEST CANADA STILL HANGING ON WITH AND AREA OF LOCALLY HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA BETWEEN A PAIR OF LOW
PRESSURE AREAS.  ONE OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA IS CONTINUING
DOWN STREAM TO THE LOWER 48 WHILE A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW WORKS
ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

LOCALLY GUSTY OUT FLOW WINDS THROUGH INTERIOR PASSES ARE
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND THIS EVENING AND TODAY
SHOULD THE BE THE COLDEST FOR A WHILE AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IS
PUSHED EASTWARD AND WE BEGIN TO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES. SO THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ABOVE 1500 FT ON THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE MORNING.

MOISTURE ABOUT THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LOW BEGINNING TO MOVE
ONSHORE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... SNOW STARTING IN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND PERHAPS INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE YAKUTAT
ZONE (AKZ017). TEMPERATURES OVER THIS AREA CONTINUING TO MODERATE
BUT LOOK TO BE STAYING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO FALL THROUGH
TONIGHT AS MORE OF THE MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD TO
YAKUTAT. EXPECT THE SNOW TO START THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND PICK
UP THIS EVENING. HEAVY SNOW WARNING STARTING ACROSS THIS AREA AT
6 PM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TIME TO PICK UP THE EXPECTED 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST...
EXPECT THE BETTER ACCUMULATIONS WEST OF THE YAKUTAT AREA WHERE
THE SNOW WILL BE FALLING LONGER.

WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FORECAST AS TO WHEN SUFFICIENT WARM AIR
WORKING ITS WAY INTO TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN.
THIS WILL BE KEY...TO THE AMOUNT OF SNOW. ALSO WILL KEEP A WATCH
IF THERE IS A BIG ENOUGH WARM PUSH ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MELT THE
FALLING FLAKES AND BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN.

.LONG RANGE...THE OCCLUDED FRONT PRODUCING THE PRECIP ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF IN THE SHORT RANGE DISSIPATES WED NIGHT THROUGH THU
MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MAKE
INTO THE COASTAL AREAS NORTH OF SITKA WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE INNER CHANNELS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND AND
ALONG THE COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS PORT ALEXANDER. ELSEWHERE...MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS LEFT OVER FROM THE DYING FRONT WILL SPREAD IN
DURING THE DAY THU.

MODELS ARE STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING THE NEXT
SYSTEM. AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN GULF THU NIGHT WITH WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT AND RAIN SPREADING INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS FROM SITKA NORTHWARD. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO
THE PANHANDLE ON FRI WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR
RAIN...POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FAR NORTH AND EASTERN AREAS
AT THE START...AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.

A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
PANHANDLE FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE RIDGE MAY BE
SHARP ENOUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TO ALLOW
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AND THEREFORE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...WHILE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HALF WILL
LIKELY KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW.

TIMING OF THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT IS PRETTY GOOD AMONG THE MODELS
BUT THE STRENGTH AT THIS POINT DOES SEEM TO DIFFER. WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO BUMP WINDS UP TO
GALES OVER THE NORTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY BUT LIMIT VALUES TO SMALL CRAFT OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE MARINE AREAS. RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO ALL AREAS SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT BUT MAY START OUT AS SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AREAS.

SUN THROUGH TUE...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AND
TIMING/TRACK OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF. NO
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BEYOND SUN.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING AKZ017
      ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY AKZ018 (ABOVE 1500 FT)

MARINE...GALE WARNING PKZ031-034-051-052
      ...SMALL CRAFT PKZ011>013-021-022-032-033-035-036-041>043

BMB/TAR