Wind Advisory 30, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 200752
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1052 PM AST MON NOV 19 2007

AKZ017-201600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.071120T1800Z-071121T0900Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
1052 PM AST MON NOV 19 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AST TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AST TUESDAY NIGHT. 

A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YAKUTAT AREA BY LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY. EXPECT SOUTHEAST GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF YAKUTAT IN THE MORNING...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 600 AM AST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ022-023-201600-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.071121T0000Z-071121T0900Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER
1052 PM AST MON NOV 19 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AST TUESDAY NIGHT...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AST TUESDAY NIGHT. 

A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOUTHEAST GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS NEAR
THE OUTER COAST.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 600 AM AST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$


BEZENEK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 201447
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
547 AM AST TUE NOV 20 2007

AKZ017-210315-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.071120T1800Z-071121T1200Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...YAKUTAT
547 AM AST TUE NOV 20 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM AST
WEDNESDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM
AST WEDNESDAY. 

A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YAKUTAT AREA BY LATE MORNING.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
YAKUTAT IN THE MORNING...THEN SPREADING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 600 PM AST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ022-023-210315-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.071121T0000Z-071121T1200Z/
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...
PORT ALEXANDER
547 AM AST TUE NOV 20 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM
AST WEDNESDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
3 AM AST WEDNESDAY. 

A STRONG FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS NEAR THE OUTER
COAST.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 600 PM AST TUESDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 210301
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2007

AKZ017-022-023-211200-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-071121T1200Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
601 PM AST TUE NOV 20 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM AST WEDNESDAY. 

A FRONT ALONG THE COAST EXTENDING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN BARANOF ISLAND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT MOVING SLOWLY EAST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST
GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS DIMINISHING AROUND 3 AM.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 300 AM AST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 211141
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
241 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007

AKZ017-022-023-211400-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-071121T1400Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
241 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AST EARLY THIS
MORNING. 

A FRONT ALONG THE COAST EXTENDING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN BARANOF
ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS DIMINISHING
AROUND 5 AM.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 500 AM AST WEDNESDAY OR SOONER
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 211352
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
452 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007

AKZ017-022-023-211800-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-071121T1800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
452 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AST THIS MORNING. 

A FRONT ALONG THE COAST EXTENDING SOUTH TO SOUTHERN BARANOF
ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH IN EXPOSED AREAS DIMINISHING
AROUND 9 AM.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 900 AM AST TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 211751
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
851 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007


AKZ017-022-023-211900-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0030.000000T0000Z-071121T1800Z/
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...
SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER
851 AM AST WED NOV 21 2007

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AST THIS MORNING. 

ALL OF THE STRONG WINDS GUSTS TO OR ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE DIMINISHED
AND THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST MON NOV 19 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A 1024 MB CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED
OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A 974 MB LOW ENTERING THE
GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST EFFECTS OF THE ADVANCING
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE GULF ARE BEING FELT OVER THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER, WITH THE ADVANCING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT IT IS LIMITING THE PRECIPITATION TO JUST
A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE YAKUTAT AREA. THE ADVANCING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ONCE THE AREAS OF FOG IN
THE INNER CHANNELS LIFT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE ARE GENERALLY LIGHT THIS MORNING WITH THE RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING THE SKAGWAY
AREA WHERE A STRONG SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ALONG LYNN CANAL IS
ALLOWING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND BY MID AFTERNOON
TUESDAY WILL BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK INLAND. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH FOG
FORMING ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH PRECIPITATION BEING
LIMITED TO MAINLY THE YAKUTAT AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES OVERNIGHT NEAR YAKUTAT.
WITH THE ADVANCING WARM AIR ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE
FRONT THE SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR YAKUTAT WILL LIMITED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

USED THE GFS MODEL IN THIS PACKAGE BEING MOST CONSISTENT BETWEEN
THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND ITS SURFACE FEATURES. THE CHIEF CONCERN FOR THIS
PACKAGE IS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE BETWEEN THE BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. AS THE
SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES INTO TUESDAY AN AREA OF GALES WILL
FORM OFFSHORE AND IN THE NORTHERN GULF. BARRIER FLOW WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR CAPE SUCKLING. WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY GRADIENT GUSTS ABOVE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF CROSS SOUND TUESDAY. PSS

.LONG RANGE...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE ENSEMBLES MEMBERS ALONG WITH OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS. SPREADS WITH ENSEMBLES MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS
INCREASE DRASTICALLY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND SO WITH THAT
SAID WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE 12ZGFS40 AND THE 12ZUKMET
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN GULF...SO WILL BLEND THOSE TWO MODELS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE GRIDS.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER BC WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EAST AS A LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF LIFTS NW INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA THROUGH TUE NIGHT. A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
TUE AFTERNOON WILL LIFT OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
BE OVER BC BY WED MORNING. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH THE AXIS OVER SE AK. THIS RIDGE WILL PUSH
TO THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LIFTS N INTO THE
WESTERN GULF AND PUSH A TROF OVER THE GULF AND THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BC
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH WED NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS IT
LIFTS NW INTO BRISTOL BAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF AND INLAND THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF WITH 40 TO
45KT OF WINDS WITH THEN POTENTIAL OF HIGHER GUSTS WEST OF ICY BAY
THROUGH TUE EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE WIND ADV LEVEL WINDS
ALONG THE COASTAL LAND AREAS FROM PASI NORTHWARD CONTINUING INTO
TUE EVENING BUT AS THE FRONT GOES ALOFT THE STRONG GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH OVER NIGHT. AS FOR PRECIP...THINK MOST WILL FALL IN THE
LIQUID FORM AS THERE WILL BE CONTINUED WARMING WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW A LFOT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN PAYA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AT MOST LEVELS. THE INSIDE
CHANNELS MAY BE TRICKY IN PLACES AS WITH THE HIGH IN BC THERE
WILL BE A EASTERLY GRADIENT THAT MAY KEEP SOME COLD AIR IN WIND
SHELTERED AREAS. FOR THE MOST PART THE PTYPE WILL BE RAIN AS IT
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AS
THERE WILL BE ONSHORE FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
TAPPER OFF THROUGH WED NIGHT AND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON THURSDAY
OVER MOST OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND AGAIN THERE WILL BE A SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE
HIGH BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM RUN TO
RUN IN THE MODELS. WITH THAT SAID...A SURFACE TROF WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL AGAIN INCREASE
THE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO MAX SMALL CRAFT/MIN GALES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A WARM ONE SO FOR THE MOST PART THE PRECIP WILL BE
LIQUID.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...
MARINE...SMCR...PKZ011>013-021-022-041>043-051-052