Wind Advisory 23, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 100822 CCA
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1121 PM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

AKZ028-029-101830-
/X.COR.PAJK.WI.Y.0023.071110T0900Z-071110T2100Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
1121 PM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM AST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM AST
SATURDAY. 

A LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND MISTY FJORDS REGIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 6 AM AST SATURDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 101126
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
226 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

AKZ027-102100-
/X.EXA.PAJK.WI.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-071110T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
226 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY. 

A LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND MISTY FJORDS REGIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST SATURDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ028-029-102100-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-071110T2100Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
226 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY. 

A LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND MISTY FJORDS REGIONS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST SATURDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 101234
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
334 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

AKZ027>029-102100-
/X.UPG.PAJK.WI.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-071110T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0004.071110T1234Z-071110T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA...HYDER
334 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY. THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
EXPECT STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND AND BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND
AIRCRAFT.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST SATURDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ026-102115-
/X.NEW.PAJK.WI.Y.0024.071110T1800Z-071111T0000Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
334 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM AST
THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM AST
THIS AFTERNOON. 

A LOW MOVING ACROSS PRINCE WHALES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. EXPECT STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND NOON. 

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST SATURDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 101615 CCA
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
334 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

AKZ027>029-102100-
/X.UPG.PAJK.WI.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-071110T2100Z/
/X.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0004.071110T1234Z-071110T2100Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...KETCHIKAN...
METLAKATLA...HYDER
334 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY. THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

A LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
EXPECT STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY MID MORNING.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN
AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND AND BE SURE TO PROTECT BOATS AND
AIRCRAFT.

A WARNING MEANS THAT HIGH WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THESE WINDS COULD POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST SATURDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ026-102115-
/X.COR.PAJK.WI.Y.0024.071110T1800Z-071111T0000Z/
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE
334 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM AST
THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM AST
THIS AFTERNOON. 

A LOW MOVING ACROSS PRINCE WALES ISLAND AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. EXPECT
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND NOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 12 PM AST SATURDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...

.SHORT RANGE...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WEAKENING WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA. A STRONG JET STREAM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC AND SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THERE IS A
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH
THIS EVENING THAT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. IT SHOULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS COMING
IN WITH THIS LOW. ALONG WITH A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AS
THE LOW MOVES TO NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THE WEAKENING
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EXPECTED TO PUSH
ONSHORE SATURDAY.

IN THE NEAR TERM THE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH INTERIOR PASSES
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON
AND THE PRESENT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE DROPPED EARLIER THAN
INITIALLY EXPECTED.  MARINE FORECASTS UPDATED TO LOWER THE WINDS
THAT HAVE DIMINISHED ALREADY REMOVING THE GALE WARNING FROM THE
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL REGION.

.LONG RANGE...THE GFS HAS A TRACK OF A LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF
WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 940S 12Z THU...AND WHILE THE PATH
OF THE LOW SEEMS USEFUL THE LOW SHOULD EITHER DEEPEN SLOWER OR MOVE ALONG
THE TRACK AT A SLOWER PACE.  PRIOR TO WED THE MODEL DIFFERENCES AR SMALLER
AND A CONSENSUS IS USED.

LOW TRACK TOWARD SRN PNHDL SUN NIGHT IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
LONG RANGE MODEL SPREAD BCMG LARGER BGNG TUE...AND
00Z THU THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE AS HIGH AS 41 MB NEAR THE LOW THAT THE GFS HAS TRACKING
NE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA.  THE GFS SOLUTION DOES
HAVE SOME MERIT BUT IS EITHER TOO FAST OR TOO STRONG WITH THE
LOW...BUT THE PATH OF THE LOW MAY BE GOOD.

SEVERAL COORDINATIONS BETWEEN ANCHORAGE EAST DESK RESULTED IN
A GAME PLAN THAT USES THE GFS WITH TIME OFFSETS AND OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS.  BY 00Z THU THE LOW TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN
TO THE 12Z WED GFS POSN AND THE 12H SLOWDOWN IS USED THRFTR
WITH A PRESSURE WEAKENING OF THE LOW OF ABOUT 12 MB THROUGH THU.
NOTE THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS MERGE WELL BY 12Z FRI.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY AKZ018-019-025
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT PKZ011-012-013-31-041>043-051-052

BMB JT