Wind Advisory 14, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 171147
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 AM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

AKZ027-172000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-071017T2000Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
347 AM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ADT TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ADT TODAY. 

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAINLY IMPACT EXPOSED AREAS OF PRINCE OF
WALES ISLAND AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON ADT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ023-026-172000-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.071017T1400Z-071017T2000Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
347 AM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON
ADT TODAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON
ADT TODAY. 

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN KUIU AND BARANOF
ISLANDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON ADT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

PSS

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 171919
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1119 AM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

AKZ028-180000-
/X.EXB.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-071018T0000Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
1119 AM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON. 

SOUTHEAST WIND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IS EXPECTED AS A LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM ADT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ023-026-027-180000-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-071018T0000Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
1119 AM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON.

THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN KUIU AND BARANOF
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM ADT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 172202
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
202 PM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

AKZ023-026-027-181215-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-071018T1400Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
202 PM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM ADT THURSDAY...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM ADT THURSDAY. 

SOUTHEAST WIND T0 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN KUIU AND BARANOF ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 AM ADT THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

AKZ028-180500-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-071018T0500Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
202 PM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM ADT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM ADT THIS EVENING. 

SOUTHEAST WIND TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE EVENING.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 9 PM ADT TONIGHT OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 180448
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
848 PM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

AKZ027-180600-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-071018T1400Z/
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CRAIG...KLAWOCK
848 PM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ028-180600-
/X.EXP.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-071018T0500Z/
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA
848 PM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM ADT THIS EVENING...

THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM ADT THIS EVENING. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

AKZ023-026-181300-
/X.CON.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-071018T1400Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
848 PM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM ADT THURSDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM ADT THURSDAY. 

SOUTHEAST WIND T0 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS
WILL MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHERN KUIU AND BARANOF ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 AM ADT THURSDAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 180632
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1032 PM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

AKZ023-026-180745-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-071018T1400Z/
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...PETERSBURG...
WRANGELL...KAKE
1032 PM ADT WED OCT 17 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT TUE OCT 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE NEAR TERM OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.  MORNING MODEL RUNS AGREE ON THE JET STREAM
TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. SO THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GULF WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THE GULF LOW THAT IS ABOUT 52N/142W AN IN THE LOWER 970S
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND DRIFT EASTWARD.  IT IS
EXPECTED TO CURL NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD TO BE ABOUT 150 TO
200 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SITKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THERE
ALSO WILL BE A SECONDARY CIRCULATION SPIN UP TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND AS WELL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RESIDUAL FRONTAL BAND LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND IS
RESULTING IN AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.  A SECONDARY BAND CLOSER TO THE LOW CONSISTING OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWER COMPLEXES IS FORMING AHEAD OF THE LOW THIS
RIGHT NOW IS OFF SHORE BUT WILL DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE AREA OF
INSTABILITY (CAPES 200+ AND LIFTED INDEXES LESS THAN -2C)
PERSISTS SO WILL BE LIKELY INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE COASTAL WATER AREAS OF 41 AND 42 AND POSSIBLY THE OFF SHORE
AREAS.  ALSO THINK THAT I WILL MENTION FOR LAND AREAS OF SOUTHERN
23...SOUTHWEST 26 AND 27 AND PRINCE OF WALES 28 FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.  SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND GULF COAST FORECAST AREAS.

WILL LEAVE THE GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR
PKZ041-042 BRIEFLY AS THE BAND APPROACHES THE COAST. WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NEARLY THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A
COUPLE OF MINOR EXCEPTIONS.

.LONG RANGE...NO MAJOR DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE GFS OR A NUDGE TOWARD THE GFS IS PLANNED
FOR THE GRIDS IN ORDER TO KEEP TWO SEPARATE LOWS OVER THE GULF
DURING THIS TIME. A 985 MB LOW WILL LINGER AND WEAKEN OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH FRI...WHILE ANOTHER 985 MB LOW MOVES NORTH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. THE LOW MOVING UP
THE COAST WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND SMALL CRAFT WINDS TO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
OUTSIDE WATERS DIMINISHING WED EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OUTSIDE WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS AT LEAST THROUGH WED
NIGHT AS COLD AIR ALOFT CREATES UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI DOWN
TO AROUND -1.

THERE IS A BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY IN DEALING WITH THE NEXT LOW
FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE JET IS STILL RUNNING FAIRLY ZONAL
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PACIFIC WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
DURING THIS TIME. THE NEXT LOW TRACKS EAST AROUND 50N WITH A
TRIPLE POINT LOW STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BUT ALSO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE. SO EASTERLY OFFSHORE LOOKS LIKELY OVER THE
PANHANDLE FRI AND EARLY FRI NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS AND SOME CLEARING.

A PATTERN CHANGE TAKES PLACE FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING FAR SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A STRONG SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST JET WILL EXTEND NORTH INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC/GULF.
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF WITH MOST OF THE MODELS TODAY INDICATING
THIS FEATURE. THE PROBLEM LIES WITH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK AT
THIS POINT IN TIME WITH THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD QUITE LARGE AND BIG
DISCREPANCIES FROM RUN TO RUN. THE CURRENT GFS NOW TRACKS THE LOW
UP THE COAST EAST OF 140W AND BRINGS STORMS AND POSSIBLE
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST FORECAST AT
THIS TIME WILL BE TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS FORECAST WHICH IS A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH THAT BRINGS A LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND
LIMITS THE WINDS TO GALE FORCE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE PKZ041-042
      ...SMALL CRAFT PKZ011-021-022-031-033>036-043-051-052

BMB/TAR