Wind Advisory 11, NWS Juneau, AK

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 111810
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1010 AM ADT THU OCT 11 2007

AKZ018-120000-
/X.EXT.PAJK.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-071012T0000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1010 AM ADT THU OCT 11 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM ADT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS EXTENDED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM ADT TODAY.

SOUTH WIND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR NEAR TAIYA
INLET.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OR FREQUENT GUSTS
WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED BY 4 PM ADT TODAY OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

NB

000 
WWAK77 PAJK 112046
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1246 PM ADT THU OCT 11 2007

AKZ018-112200-
/X.CAN.PAJK.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-071012T0000Z/
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SKAGWAY
1246 PM ADT THU OCT 11 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JUNEAU HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 


$$

NB

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM ADT WED OCT 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...SMALL INTENSE LOW IN DIXON ENTRANCE WAS PROBABLY
ABOUT 985 MB 16Z AND IS FILLING AND BECOMING LESS CONCENTRATED
AS IT MOVES NE INTO MISTY FJORDS BY NOON TODAY WITH A FOOTPRINT
OF FMH1 MDT RAIN...WHAT THE PUBLIC CALLS HEAVY RAIN...TAKING
PLACE IN ZONES 28 AND 29 AS A WEAKER VERSION OF THIS LOW
IS REDEVELOPED AS A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WITHIN
100 NM OF THE COAST MOUNTAIN RANGE EAST OF JUNEAU AND
SKAGWAY.  LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE FROM MODELS IS IN USEFUL
AGREEMENT AND ACCEPTED...INCLUDING THE 500H TROUGH ALOFT
EXTENDING FROM OVER PWS TO KETCHIKAN MOVES TO THE NE.

THE MODELS ARE ALSO ACCEPTED ON THE RAPID RISE OF SURFACE
PRESSURES FROM THE SOUTH BY 06Z THIS EVENING...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DISCUSSED ABOVE MOVING NE BEYOND THE PNHDL
BY 12Z TONIGHT.

.LONG RANGE...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE TIME FRAME. WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES WITH HOW DEEP THE LOW WILL BE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OCCLUDED FROM MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE PANHANDLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BLEND IN THE NEW 12Z
GFS40.

ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP SHOWERS
PERSISTENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF THAT MAY CAP SOME
OF THE SHOWERS TO BECOME SCATTERED OVER NIGHT.

A STRONG UPPER 970S LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD LEFT EXIT REGION JET ENERGY AND ROTATE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE EASTERN GULF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE THE
WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO MAX GALES OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF WHERE THERE WILL MIN GALES TO
35KT. THE OTHER EXCEPTION WILL NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS WERE
A BARRIER JET TO 50 KT WILL SET UP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 17 FT
OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE INSIDE MARINE
AREAS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE TO GALES OVER MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY
OVER EAST/WEST CHANNELS. LYNN CANAL WILL SEE THE WINDS INCREASE
LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE GRADIENT
BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. OVER LAND AREAS...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO WIND ADV OVER ALL COASTAL AREAS BY NOON WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
OVER THE INNER CHANNELS THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO WIND ADV
BUT THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN VERY WINDY INTO THE LATE
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. MOST OF THE WINDS WILL RELAX OVER NIGHT BUT NORTHERN LYNN
WILL REMAIN ON THE WINDY SIDE.

RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE
MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SOME AREAS SEEING HIGH PRECIP
RATES BY THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
THROUGH THE PAYA AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS SO THEY WILL NOT SEE THE CHANGE TO SHOWERS
UNTIL SAT MORNING.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS A MEAN TROF STAYS OVER THE GULF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE TROF WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY
AND THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPPER OFF. THE JET WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD SO MOST OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE PANHANDLE COULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT
SOME WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY AKZ027>029 TIL 4 PM
MARINE...GALE WARNING PKZ036-041
      ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PKZ031-034-042-043-051
JT/ABJ